Analysis: Pandemic Speeds China’s Rise to Become World’s Largest Economy

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Covid-19 pandemic should lead China to overtake the United States in total wealth production by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, which would make it the largest economy in the world.

The previous projection was that the change in the ranking should only occur in 2033, but it should now happen in 2028, according to a study by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

The report, which monitors and prepares economic projections for 193 countries, states that Asian countries, particularly those in East Asia, have been more successful in tackling the pandemic than those in Europe and America. In total, the CEBR estimates that the pandemic will push the 2020 global economy back by US$6 trillion compared to 2019.

According to the document, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2020, while U.S. GDP is expected to shrink by 5.0%. Globally, the projection is for a GDP contraction of at least 4.0%.

Brazil

In the section analyzing Brazil’s economic situation, CEBR estimates that the country’s GDP will decline 5.0% this year and grow by 3.3% in 2021. Currently, the study center ranks Brazil 12th among the world’s largest economies, and estimates that the country will reach 9th place only in 2035.

The report says that Brazil is experiencing “considerable political and economic instability since a deep recession in 2016,” and opines that the Brazilian economy will enter 2021 in a fragile situation with limited fiscal room.

The text further states that the Brazilian labor market “has never recovered from the 2015-2016 recession, and the 2020 pandemic has only made matters worse.”

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