Migration surge on the US/Mexican border as seen by a war photographer

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – With the change of administration at the White House last January, the new U.S. government under President Biden has been quick in changing the various policies implemented by ex-president Donald Trump.

One of the many issues the new administration has been rushing to change is the immigration legal ban the Trump government had imposed on many nationalities trying to enter the U.S., either legally, or illegally.

Under the Trump tenure, migrants coming from Central America and Mexico were not allowed to enter, and if caught by Border Patrol, were systematically sent back to Mexico, while other migrants were asked to wait in Mexico for their paperwork to be processed.

This rather radical change in immigration policy, coupled with the current president’s inability to formulate a comprehensive plan on this ,subject, has led many migrants to believe that this is the time to make a push into the U.S. and try for asylum.

This lack of strategy has led the Mexican government to rush in an attempt to address this new tide of population flow coming through its Southern border with Guatemala; as well as U.S. federal agencies like Border Patrol which has been overwhelmed by this sudden increase in numbers.

The issue is not only political but also ideological. For the current Democratic Party, which is now quite different from what it once was, even under the Obama years, keeping an open border is part of the notion that the old values which had defined a century-old nation-state are now obsolete and needs to be placed into the abyss of history forever.

On the conservative side, the notion of going through the legal process is still important as many immigrants still wait their turn in line to obtain a permanent visa, a work visa, or their green card to be allowed into the US legally.

In fact, it is considered an American value to wait in line like everyone else until it is your turn while trusting that the system works well enough. This legalist mentality is now being pushed aside ever further, hence creating a real sense of unfairness that will continue to slip away from our institutions and the way we see the U.S. as a nation-state.

Along the U.S./Mexican border, the more conservative U.S. media have been quick to react to the facts stated above, in fact, to show to the American people what is happening, while exposing the reality of ideological differences now firmly anchored within American society.

For instance, U.S. vice president, Kamala Harris was appointed over two months ago to the unenvious task of dealing with this current surge in border crossings. This poisoned gift by President Biden has forced her to disappear from the media and consequently from the public scene altogether, which is quite odd and considered by most Americans as unacceptable.

So, what is really happening on the border? Is there indeed a crisis as conservative media report? Yes and No. Yes, because there is a surge in the actual numbers of people crossing over to the U.S. since Biden came to power, a lot more than during the Trump years, who was quite successful in stopping this flow of people under the famous Title 42 law which allowed U.S. authorities to extradite illegal immigrants back to Mexico.

When President Biden took power in the White House, the removal of illegal migrants from the U.S. dropped dramatically. Although it is not entirely clear who gets to stay and who gets to be sent back across the Mexican border, it seems that from Border Patrol sources, lone men are usually sent back, while families, children, pregnant women, and unaccompanied children are processed and may remain in the U.S.

Furthermore, local authorities in Texas have been called upon by the State to help curb the flow and assist the Border Patrol which is now overwhelmed. Hence, local Police forces, as well as Highway patrol and some National Guard Units have been deployed to help border work. This is a clear sign that there is an increase in illegal border crossings throughout the U.S. Southern border.

That being said, however, looking at this current crisis on a grand scale, and therefore in the long term, the crisis should be short-lived, as the migration issue has now been present for decades. This not-very-new phenomenon has never been rectified by either the U.S. or the various Mexican and Central American governments. In fact, Mexico has turned a blind eye on the illegal crossing of tens of millions of its poor citizens into the U.S. This rather sulfurous policy has been implemented by successive Mexican governments on purpose.

Indeed, Mexico was all too happy to have a significant portion of its poor citizens leave its national border, thereby alleviating the economic burden on its treasury, as these individuals while working in the U.S. were sending billions of dollars back to their families in the country through Western Union. This was indeed a win-win situation for Mexico. On the other side of the border, the U.S. was also all too happy to have cheap labor in its fields, kitchens, and other types of jobs U.S. citizens did not want.

However, this odd arrangement is now about to end, and I do believe that we are seeing the end of this great Latin migration into the U.S. Why? Well, for one simple reason. Birth rates in Central America, as well as Mexico, are collapsing rapidly, hence placing a real strain on these country’s labor force requirements. In 1950 there were 6.7 children per woman in the country, currently, the rate stands at 2.07, which is just under the 2.1 needed to sustain population growth, and the collapsing trends are increasing.

In Honduras, it dropped from 7.4 to 2.4 during that same period. These trends are occurring all over North and South America. Demography dictates the future of each nation, empires, kingdoms that once existed, and a population decline is always a clear sign that things will change.