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Predictions for Brazil in 2012

Opinion, by Michael Royster

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - The Curmudgeon offers a few predictions on what will happen in Brazil during 2012. The first is regarding Ethanol. The “good news” is that the U.S. has now lifted the surtax on imported Brazilian ethanol, which means that a number of Brazilian cane producers will have yet another incentive for not making sugar, but making ethanol.

The bad news is that the producers will sell to the U.S. rather than to Petrobrás, unless Petrobrás pays more than world prices. That means more ethanol available for automobiles . . .

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