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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - Booming commodities, rock-bottom valuations and a hawkish turn at central bank are all poised to support the Brazilian real. But it’s politicians who hold the key to turning that into a long-term rally.

“Rates moving in different directions might not be enough by itself,” said Brendan McKenna, an foreign-exchange strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. “Brazil needs to shore up its fiscal position and make progress on the reform agenda for the real to gather longer-term momentum.”

After a year of splashing out on social programs during the pandemic, Brazil . . .

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