Datafolha Poll Projections for 2020 Rio de Janeiro Mayoralty Election

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The poll conducted on October 20th and 21st shows former Mayor Eduardo Paes with 28 percent of the voting intentions; current Mayor Marcello Crivella has 13 percent, as does state deputy Martha Rocha, while former governor and federal deputy Benedita da Silva is close at 10 percent, within the 3% error margin.

A Datafolha poll released on Thursday, October 22nd has the following detailed voting intention percentages for the City of Rio de Janeiro in the 2020 Elections:

Eduardo Paes (DEM – Democratas): 28%
Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos): 13%
Martha Rocha (PDT – Democratic Labor Party): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT – Workers’ Party): 10%
Renata Souza (PSOL – Socialism and Liberty Party): 5%
Luiz Lima (PSL – Social Liberal Party): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede – Sustainability Network): 3%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU – Unified Workers’ Socialist Party): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros – Republican Social Order Party): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo – New Party): 1%
Gloria Heloiza (PSC – Christian Social Party): 1%
None/Blank/Void: 17%
Do not know/No answer: 3%

With respect to the prior Datafolha poll, released on October 8th:

Eduardo Paes down from 30% to 28%
Crivella down from 14% to 13%
Martha Rocha up from 10% to 13%
Benedita da Silva up from 8% to 10%
Renata Souza up from 3% to 5%
Luiz Lima up from 1% to 4%
Bandeira de Mello remained at 3%
Cyro Garcia down from 2% to 1%
Clarissa Garotinho maintained 1%
Fred Luz stayed maintained 1%
Gloria Heloiza up from 0% to 1%
Paulo Messina down from 1% to 0%
Suêd Haidar mainatined 0%

The undecided remained at 3%, and the projected blank or void votes dropped from 22% to 17%.

Highlight by segment

According to the poll, Paes holds his greatest advantage among the older population (35%, against 13% for Martha, 21% for Crivella and 8% for Benedita); among the wealthiest (31%, against 10% for Martha, 11% for Crivella and 10% for Benedita); among those who identify as white (30%, against 13% for Martha, 11% for Crivella and 8% for Benedita); among those who disapprove of the city hall’s performance in fighting the pandemic (32%, against 13% for Martha, 1% for Crivella and 12% for Benedita); and among Catholics (36%, against 16% for Martha, 7% for Crivella and 8% for Benedita).

According to Datafolha, the ex-mayor of Rio has the worst performances in the following segments: those aged between 16 and 24 (24%, against 8% for Martha, 17% for Crivella and 15% for Benedita); those aged between 25 and 34 (21%, against 12% for Martha, 11% for Crivella and 14% for Benedita); evangelicals (23%, against 10% for Martha, 28% for Crivella and 6% for Benedita); PT sympathizers (32%, against 10% for Martha, 4% for Crivella and 36% for Benedita); and those who approve the performance of President Jair Bolsonaro’s government in fighting the pandemic (24%, against 10% for Martha Rocha, 28% for Crivella and 3% for Benedita).

Datafolha also simulated three second-round runoff scenarios:

Eduardo Paes 52% vs. 22% Crivella (Blank/Void: 25%; do not know: 2%)
Martha Rocha 45% vs. 41% Eduardo Paes (Blank/Void: 13%; do not know: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 48% vs. 30% Benedita da Silva (Blank/Void: 21%; do not know: 1%)

Respondent’s level of awareness of the candidate:

Eduardo Paes: 98% know him (of these, 63% know him very well; 22%, somewhat; 13% have only heard of him) and 2% do not know him
Crivella: 98% know him (of these, 61% know him very well; 23%, somewhat; 14% have only heard of him) and 2% do not know him
Benedita: 91% know her (of these, 43% know her very well; 26%, somewhat; 21% have only heard of her) and 9% do not know her
Clarissa: 85% know her (of these, 28% know her very well; 24%, somewhat; 32% have only heard of her) and 15% do not know her
Martha Rocha: 84% know her (of these, 26% know her very well; 30%, somewhat; 29% have only heard of her) and 16% do not know her
Cyro Garcia: 70% know him (of these, 17% know him very well; 21%, somewhat; 32% have only heard of him) and 30% do not know him
Bandeira de Mello: 39% know him (of these, 13% know him very well; 11%, somewhat; 16% have only heard of him) and 61% do not know him
Paulo Messina: 35% know him (of these, 6% know him very well; 13%, somewhat; 17% have only heard of him) and 65% do not know him
Luiz Lima: 32% know him (of these, 5% know him very well; 12%, somewhat; 14% have only heard of him) and 68% do not know him
Renata Souza: 26% know her (of these, 7% know her very well; 7%, somewhat; 12% have only heard of her) and 74% do not know her
Fred Luz: 17% know him (of these, 2% know him very well; 5%, somewhat; 10% have only heard of him) and 83% do not know him
Suêd: 17% know her (of these, 1% know her very well; 5%, somewhat; 11% have only heard of her) and 83% do not know her
Glória Heloiza: 16% know her (of these, 1% know her very well; 5%, somewhat; 10% have only heard of her) and 84% do not know her
Henrique Simonard: 12% know him (0% of these know him very well; 3% somewhat; 9% have only heard of him) and 88% do not know him

The poll also inquired about which candidates voters would not vote for under any circumstances. The rejection percentages were as follows:

Crivella: 58%.
Eduardo Paes: 31%
Clarissa Garotinho: 31%
Benedita da Silva: 27%
Cyro Garcia: 15%
Luiz Lima: 11%
Paulo Messina: 10%
Bandeira de Mello: 9%.
Fred Luz: 9%.
Renata Souza: 8%
Suêd Haidar: 8%
Gloria Heloiza: 8%
Henrique Simonard: 7%
Martha Rocha: 7%
Rejects all/would not vote for any: 6%.
Do not know/no answer: 2%
Could vote for all: 1%

Spontaneous poll

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intention, when voters state who they will vote for without having been prompted on names. The results were as follows:

Eduardo Paes: 20%
Crivella: 8%
Martha Rocha: 7%
Renata Souza: 3%
Benedita da Silva: 3%
Luiz Lima: 2%
Bandeira de Mello: 1%
Others: 4%
None/Blank/Void: 17%
Do not know/did not answer: 34%
Will not vote/will justify: 1%

About the poll, which was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.

Error margin: 3 percentage points plus or minus
Who was heard: 1,008 voters from the city of Rio de Janeiro
Poll date: October 20th and 21st
The reliability level used is 95 percent. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the error margin.

Source: G1

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