Argentina heads towards primaries marked by economy and apathy

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Some 34.3 million Argentines are called to vote next Sunday, September 12, to define the lists of candidates who will be qualified to run in the legislative elections scheduled for November 14.

These primaries will be held amid 51.8% year-on-year inflation in July, a drop in the purchasing power of wages that has been dragging on since 2018 and unemployment of 10.2% by the first quarter.

“Due to the process of deterioration of income and, therefore, of the Argentines’ quality of life, inflation is an issue of great concern and explains why people assign responsibility in economic matters to the government and not to the pandemic,” said Lucas Romero, director of Synopsis consulting firm.

PRIVILEGES

The government of Alberto Fernández took office in December 2019 mandated to revive the economy, Romero recalled, after the discontent in this area left by the presidency of Mauricio Macri (2015-2019).

The Covid-19 pandemic – and the long quarantine implemented by the Fernández administration – led the economy to plunge 9.9% in 2020 and complete 3 years of recession, while the 8% rebound expected by the government this year has not changed uncertainty.

In addition, Argentina now totals 112,444 deaths from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic and only 47.4% of people over 18 have completed their vaccination schedule, according to official data from Saturday.

In this context, the recent release of pictures of Fernández at the first lady’s birthday party at the presidential residence in July 2020, during the harshest restrictions imposed by the pandemic, had a great political impact.

This scandal joined the VIP Vaccination scandal, due to the disclosure last February of people who were vaccinated under privileged conditions, thus prompting a change of Health Minister.

For Romero, these two events showing “politicians abusing their power and exercising privileges,” prevent “the government from using the pandemic as an excuse for not complying with its economic mandate.”

APATHY

Voting is compulsory for people between 18 and 70 years of age, but this year analysts expect a low turnout, as opposed to the last five primary elections, which had over 70% participation.

“People are facing the electoral process with resignation, as if they don’t believe that the electoral result is going to change the future of the country,” Romero points out, because, according to him, over 60% believe that they are going to be worse off a year from now.

The level of pessimism among Argentines may be related to their frustration that “political alternation does not work,” according to Romero. The analyst believes that many will not vote in the primaries “as a way of protesting,” and that this will have a greater impact on the opposition vote.

RESULT

The November elections will renew 127 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate. The ruling Frente de Todos coalition will seek to preserve its majority in the Senate and win it in the Chamber of Deputies, while Juntos por el Cambio, the main opposition front, will seek to win more seats and be better positioned for the 2023 presidential elections.

The ruling party has chosen to run in the primaries with unified lists in most districts, while Juntos por el Cambio will run with separate party lists in most provinces.

Romero considers that the ruling party Frente de Todos will not be able to exceed 40% of the votes at national level, a 25% drop compared to the 2019 presidential elections.

He believes that competition will be with Juntos por el Cambio and that the two will be the protagonists of the electoral scene, although other parties may capture the dissatisfaction and the youth vote in these primaries.