Bolsonaro Leads Haddad in First Poll Since Election 58% to 42%

By Nelson Belen, Contributing Reporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – On Wednesday, October 10th, Datafolha released its first opinion poll since Brazil’s wild election last Sunday, showing controversial right-wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro with 58 percent of the intended votes while his leftist challenger Fernando Haddad tallied 42 percent.

Similar to this past Sunday’s first round where Bolsonaro won a resounding 46 percent of the vote to Haddad’s 29 percent, in this latest Datafolha poll, Bolsonaro had the advantage in every region in the country except the Northeast.

His largest margin of victory was in the South where sixty percent of voters intended to cast their vote for the former army captain compared to Haddad‘s 26 percent.

In the Southeast region, Bolsonaro won 55 percent to 32 percent; in the Midwest, 59 percent to 27 percent; and in the North, 51 percent to forty percent.

Unsurprisingly, Brazil’s Northeast, long considered a PT stronghold, was firmly in Haddad’s camp. The ex-mayor of São Paulo had 52 percent of the intended votes while Bolsonaro had 32 percent.

According to Datafolha, among women, there is a technical tie between the two candidates: Bolsonaro has 42 percent while Haddad has 39 percent.

However, among men, Bolsonaro has a healthy lead with 57 percent of the intended vote compared to Haddad’s 33 percent.

Interestingly, Datafolha also measured voting intentions for those who voted for the other candidates on Sunday, specifically those who voted for Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin, João Amoêdo, and Marina Silva.

58 percent of those who voted for Ciro Gomes on Sunday said they would vote for Haddad in the second round. Only nineteen percent of Ciro voters indicated they would vote for Bolsonaro.

But, Bolsonaro had the advantage among Alckmin voters, where 42 percent indicated they would vote for the right-wing candidate, while thirty percent intended to vote for Haddad.

Bolsonaro had the biggest lead among João Amoêdo voters where he collected 49 percent of intended votes compared to only eighteen percent for Haddad.

Finally, according to the poll, 37 percent of Marina Silva voters plan to vote for Haddad, while only eighteen percent chose Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro and Haddad will go head-to-head in the second round runoff to decide Brazil’s next president on Sunday, October 28th.

Datafolha’s poll was sponsored by TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. It included 3,235 participants from across the country and had a margin of error of two percent.