RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A report by Eurasia, one of the world’s largest political risk consultants, says that Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite is the favorite to win the PSDB primaries, scheduled for November.
Leite came out two months ago as a gay man.
The report released on Thursday, September 23, states that the Rio Grande do Sul governor’s main opponent, São Paulo governor João Doria, should win in his territory, where the party has more members. However, Leite manages to attract more supporters from other states.
Both Doria and Leite are traveling around Brazil seeking votes. During a debate on MacroDay 2021, an event organized by BTG Pactual last week, PSDB president Bruno Araújo said that the race is evenly balanced and that there is no favorite.
Eurasia also evaluates that Eduardo Leite’s chances of reaching a second round depend on President Jair Bolsonaro’s image, ranked second in the polls, with approximately 20%.
“Whoever wins may have an advantage in the race for a third-way, market-friendly candidate in the 2022 election. With most of the PSDB state sections behind him, Leite seems poised to win the nomination. […] Many party members think Leite is best positioned to run against President Jair Bolsonaro,” the Eurasia report says.
According to the political risk consultancy, Eduardo Leite is likely to have the support of party members in 20 of the 27 states, including Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Bahia, Ceará and Pernambuco.
LEITE HAS 5% IN THE FIRST ROUND
In the last EXAME/IDEIA poll, the Rio Grande do Sul governor is shown with 5% of voting intentions in the first round, Doria holds 8%. Considering the error margin of 3 percentage points up or down, they are technically tied.
In a potential runoff against ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the governor of São Paulo holds 24% of voting intentions, and Leite holds 19%.
Nevertheless, Eurasia points out that the governor is likely to grow as more people get to know his name.
“The media will provide extensive coverage of the events related to the PSDB primaries, including televised coverage of the debates between Doria and Leite. This should boost Leite’s national name and could push his national poll figures closer to 8% or 9%,” the consultancy assesses.
In addition, he recently made national headlines after speaking openly about his sexuality. In an exclusive interview with EXAME in late August, Leite said that Brazil is ready to have a gay president.