China could overtake Chile as world’s second largest lithium producer by 2030

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – First it was Australia to push Chile down to second place in lithium production, and in the coming years it will be China to bump it down to third.

This is the conclusion of a report by CRU international consulting firm entitled “Changes in the demand for minerals” commissioned by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) within the framework of Regional Cooperation Program activities for the Sustainable Management of Mineral Resources in Andean Countries (MinSus).

According to the document, while in 2015 Australia produced 36% of the lithium supply, Chile accounted for 35%, Argentina for 12% and China for 8%. By 2030, the first of these countries is expected to account for 44%, followed by the Asian giant with 20%, while Chile would account only for 15%.

“Chile has a relatively small project portfolio,” the document states, estimating that the country’s total supply could reach 234,000 LCE tons led by the expansion of SQM and Albemarle in Atacama.

The Asian giant has been increasing production and, according to the document, pushed Argentina from third place in 2019.

A relevant point is that current production capacity is unable to meet projected market demand in the medium and long term.

On the demand side China is also the most relevant player. It currently accounts for around 55% of demand and should reach 66% by the end of the decade.