Drought punishes Brazil: Reservoirs on alert as electricity bills skyrocket

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Latin America’s largest economy is now looking to the skies in the hope that from this month on, the rainy season will mitigate the alarming rainfall deficit in the southeastern and midwestern regions, which account for half of Brazil’s population.

Forecasts for the coming months are not favorable and anticipate rainfall below the historical average or at most within the same range.

“This means that reservoirs will not recover as much as necessary,” said the University of São Paulo (USP) Energy and Environment Institute professor Pedro Luiz Côrtes.

According to the National Electric System Operator (ONS), reservoirs with hydroelectric production capacity in the southeast and midwest regions, where the country’s large power stations are located, are at 17% of their capacity.

This time last year, they were close to 40% and in 2001, when the country faced several blackouts, they stood at 23.5%. The impact of the drought is starting to be seen.

INCREASINGLY FREQUENT DROUGHTS

The impact is noticeable in places such as the Jaguari dam, in the municipality of Vargem (southeast), part of the vast system that supplies São Paulo and its metropolitan area, with over 20 million inhabitants.

It stands at 30% capacity, 13 points lower than in 2020. A decade ago it stood at 80%. Today, several edges of the reservoir are dry. Vertical earth walls are a reminder of the water abundance of previous years.

Weeds have grown and in some parts where there used to be water, cattle now graze. José da Rosa has fished in this dam for 25 years. “The water used to reach more or less up to where that vehicle is now,” said this 57-year-old builder, pointing to the height of the water a few years ago, several meters higher than it is today.

Water crises have been a recurring event in São Paulo since the beginning of the 21st century. “In terms of electricity generation this is the second severe crisis we have had in 20 years this century, and in terms of supply it is now the third,” said Côrtes, also a consultant for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

These increasingly frequent droughts are linked to climate change and other factors, such as growing deforestation in the Amazon or the effects of phenomena such as La Niña.

For São Paulo, the current situation is worse than in 2013, the year that preceded one of the worst droughts in its recent history, because “there is 20% less” water in storage and the weather forecasts are “equally unfavorable,” according to Côrtes.

In the interior of São Paulo, at least 16 cities experienced some form of water rationing in September, many of which depend on the Paraná river basin, which is also suffering an unprecedented crisis. In August only 6 were in this situation.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

The impact of the drought has also been felt in people’s pockets.

To encourage electricity savings – around 60% comes from hydroelectric plants – the government announced a new “water scarcity” tariff which translates into an extra R$14.20 (US$2.60) for every 100 kWh consumed. This increase is the latest in a string of electricity price hikes and reflects the record production of more expensive and polluting thermoelectric power.

All this in a context of economic downturn. With inflation soaring close to double digits and unemployment at an all-time high, close to 14%.

The government rules out the prospect of power rationing, although Bolsonaro has invited Brazilians to “help Brazil” with a formula: avoid the elevator, take cold showers – in Brazil many are electric – and turn off “some” lights at home.

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