Mexico elections: President López Obrador juggles the results to declare victory

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Although the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) lost votes in the Chamber of Deputies, Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, asserted on Monday that the electoral results are a great endorsement for his work of government, the so-called “fourth transformation of Mexico”.

“I am very grateful because as a result of this election, the parties that sympathize with the transformation project that is underway will have a majority”, a triumphalist president celebrated this Monday in his morning press conference.

The truth is, however, that Sunday’s mid-term elections, considered the largest in Mexico’s history, left an ambiguous result, far from the overwhelming victory the president expected.

Morena and its allies managed to retain an absolute majority in the lower house, and expanded its territorial power by winning at least 11 of the 15 state governorships at stake. Still, it will not control the two-thirds of the Chamber of Deputies it will need to amend the Constitution, essential for some of the president’s proposals.

“The result shows that Morena is no longer the hegemonic party that emerged in 2018,” said Gustavo López Montiel, professor of Political Science at the Tecnológico de Monterrey.

DANCE OF MAJORITIES

Projections by the National Electoral Institute (INE) give the president’s party between 190 and 203 of the 500 seats in the Lower House, down significantly from the 253 it held until now.

But added to the seats held by its partners Labor Party (PT) and Green Party (PVEM), it should have the majority (251 seats), necessary to pass laws and budgets during the second half of López Obrador’s term, which ends in 2024.

What seems to be complicated is his plans to reform the Constitution to shield the energy reform that favors state-owned companies or modify the Electoral Institute, since two-thirds of the chamber is required for any constitutional amendment

To stop this majority, the opposition had united in the eclectic coalition “Va por México” (PAN, PRI, and PRD), which should obtain between 181 and 213 seats. In contrast, the “third way” of the Citizen Movement (MC) should obtain between 20 and 27.

“The opposition did not stop López Obrador’s project, but it did manage to contain Morena’s electoral advance,” political scientist Khemvirg Puente, from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), told Efe.

INSISTS ON HIS VICTORY

Although they were legislative and local elections, they were interpreted as a plebiscite on the president himself, on whose popularity Morena depends.

Aware of this, Lopez Obrador actively expressed his political opinion during the campaign, even though the law prevents him from doing so. On Monday, he celebrated the result as his own victory.

In a long harangue, the president, who has a degree in Political Science, was confused when he assured that his party “never” had the absolute majority because this concept “does not exist”. However, Congress contemplates the absolute majority as “half plus one” of the chamber.

He criticized that “there is a lack of knowledge” in the media, predicted that he would obtain some 280 deputies in the final count, and said he was “happy, happy, happy” because “the transformation of Mexico will continue”.

“In Mexico, there is an undemocratic tradition of all participants declaring themselves winners regardless of the actual result. It is not surprising that the president comes out to say that it is a victory for him”, said Puente.

WINS STATES BUT LOSES THE CAPITAL

In the race for the 15 states in contention, Morena clearly prevailed by winning at least 11 governorships: it retained Baja California and snatched Baja California Sur, Colima, Guerrero, Tlaxcala, Sinaloa, Sonora, Michoacán, Nayarit, and Zacatecas from the opposition.

On the other hand, Morena’s support eroded in areas it already governed, such as Mexico City, where it suffered a historic setback due to the loss of backing from the middle classes.

One month after the tragic subway accident that left 26 dead, Morena only won seven of the 16 mayoralties that make up the capital. At the same time, the opposition triumphed in the nine mayoralties in the west of the city, which includes the most affluent neighborhoods.

Following this, López Obrador sent a message of attention to the head of the capital’s government, Morenista Claudia Sheinbaum: “I think you have to work more with the people here in Mexico City,” said López Obrador, who governed the capital between 2000 and 2005.

RACE TO 2024

The fact is that the election results in Mexico City “reflect the weakness of Morena with an eye on 2024,” when presidential elections will be held, in which López Obrador can no longer run, Montiel said.

Current mayor Sheinbaum had been one of those best positioned to succeed López Obrador. The current Mexican foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard, was also tainted by the accident on Line 12 of the subway, which he built when he was Mayor.