RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (Opinion) – On May 11 and 12, a Datafolha poll asked over 2,000 people throughout Brazil: “Should Congress open impeachment proceedings against President Bolsonaro?”
Datafolha began asking this question over one year ago, at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis in Brazil, and for the first time, more responders (49%) said “Yes” than said “No” (46%). (4% had no opinion.)
This result is hardly surprising, because the same poll showed two other results that were unflattering to Bolsonaro’s image: one predicts him losing the 2022 presidential elections to ex-President Lula by a wide margin; the other indicates that 51% of those polled disapprove of his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The likely reason behind these result is the publicity given to the Bolsonaro administration by the Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPI) installed by the federal Senate in early May.
For this column, the Curmudgeon wants to ask readers a series of question. The first is, “Do you favor the impeachment of President Bolsonaro?” To those who answer “Yes, I do”, the next question is, “Do you favor a return to the military governing Brazil?”
The Curmudgeon believes that 9 out of 10 readers will react in horror and say “No! Never Again!, while querying the relevance of this second question. To help readers understand, he now asks his third question: “Do you know what happens when the President of Brazil is impeached?”
Again, 9 out of 10 readers will answer that they know. When the Chamber of Deputies impeaches the President for a “crime de responsabilidade” (crime of accountability), and the Senate convicts him of that crime, the Vice President becomes President.
If Bolsonaro is impeached, Antonio Hamilton Martins Mourão, a retired 4-star Army General drafted as VP at the last minute onto Bolsonaro’s campaign ticket, with little or no previous political involvement, will become President of the Federative Republic of Brazil.
The Curmudgeon believes that this could very well trigger a serious constitutional and institutional crisis.
In everyday Portuguese, a “mourão” is a concrete fencepost that anchors barbed wire fences. Early on, Brazil’s VP Mourão tried to stake out a position as the more steady, more measured, less volatile counterpoint to Bolsonaro’s untrammeled Trump-like tendencies – he would be the concrete keeping the prickly wire from snapping.
That desire was anathema to Bolsonaro, who has largely put Mourão out to political pasture, avoiding any possibilities that an ambitious Mourão could surreptitiously build up his own political following.
Now that ex-President Lula is eligible to run against him, Bolsonaro has doubled down on his determination not to leave office – he’s “not going gently into that dark night.”
Consider his latest outburst after the poll said he would lose to Lula in a runoff election in 2022: “Only God can remove me from this seat!”
Consider his demand for a return to paper ballots, guaranteed to encourage vote swindling and ensure endless recounts, a la Trump 2020.
Consider his repeated and baseless claims that in 2018 a first-round victory was “stolen” from him by fraud, and that if he loses in 2022 it will only be because of fraud.
During the first two years of Bolsonaro’s, over 100 motions for impeachment were submitted to the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies. Rodrigo Maia and Arthur Lira, both savvy political operators, have resisted putting any impeachment wheels in motion.
The Curmudgeon submits that both of them have recognized Bolsonaro’s secret desire to carry out an “auto-coup”, whereby democratically elected chief executives (e.g. Peru’s Alberto Fujimori, Turkey’s Recep Tajjik Erdogan, the Philppines’ Rodrigo Duterte) convert themselves into autocratic strongmen.
The Curmudgeon submits that VP Mourão is more likely to succeed in an “auto-coup” than Bolsonaro himself. The support of the military is essential, and while Captain Bolsonaro tries to portray himself as the defender of the military rank and file, General Mourão is the favorite of the highest ranking officers.
If Congress impeaches Bolsonaro, General Mourão will take over the reins of government until the end of 2022 – unless, of course, a military-backed “auto-coup” postpones or cancels the presidential elections scheduled for October that year.
For the Curmudgeon, the consequences of impeachment present a far more frightening prospect than leaving the inept, intemperate, and invidious incumbent in office.