Opinion: Is Brazil’s Centrão voting bloc considering a “parliamentary coup”?

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (Opinion) According to reliable sources, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies president, Arthur Lira, has recently said that there are four prerequisites for him to begin the process of impeachment against President Bolsonaro.

Lira’s four are: (1) an economic recession; (2) low employment generation; (3) lack of political support for the government; and (4) abuse of the powers of office.

With all due respect, the first three of Lira’s criteria are spurious – Brazil’s 1988 Constitution does not countenance them. Only “abuse of power” is among the constitutional grounds for impeachment. Worse, the first three criteria could suffice as the basis for a “parliamentary coup”.

Article 85 of the 1988 Constitution provides that a crime of accountability consists of acts that undermine, threaten, or infringe the Constitution, and lists seven general examples.

Article 2 of Law 1079/1950, regulating Article 85, provides that committing or attempting a crime of accountability is punishable by removal from office. The remaining articles of the statute give sixty-five (65) specific descriptions of conduct that would violate the constitutional precepts – but “abuse of power” is the only one of Lira’s prerequisites that appears there.

Impeachment, all scholars and commentators agree, is political, rather than criminal, in nature – but only in the sense that a “crime of accountability” need not be a crime specified in the Penal Code. Political actions may be reprehensible, but very few are impeachable.

Let us examine Lira’s shortlist.

Causing an “economic recession” could be political – but it is hard to see how a president could single-handedly be responsible for a recession.

Low “generation of employment” is more a question of economics than of politics, but again, it is hard to see how a president could single-handedly be responsible for stagnant employment.

Lack of “political support for the government” is the stuff of parliamentary systems of government, where the chief executive, usually the prime minister, is subject to votes of confidence (or no confidence) by the legislature when introducing policies.

Presidential systems of government, such as that of the U.S. and Brazil, do not allow votes of confidence whereby the legislature can remove chief executives from office before their term expires, merely because a majority of Congress do not agree with their policies.

Brazil, unfortunately, has recent experience in this regard.

In 2016, the national Congress, led by Chamber of Deputies President Eduardo Cunha, removed President Dilma Rousseff from office, by impeachment. Congress held her accountable, under Article 85-VII, for budget manipulations similar to those practiced by many prior presidents.

In reality, Dilma was ousted for only one reason: the overwhelming majority of Congress had lost confidence in her ability to govern Brazil. For many analysts, the so-called “impeachment” was, rather, a “parliamentary coup”.

It is arguable that given Lira’s list of spurious criteria for impeachment, the current President of the Chamber of Deputies is thinking about following in the footsteps of his predecessor Eduardo Cunha.

Lira is the acknowledged leader of the multi-party “Centrão” bloc that now holds sway over Congress. The Centrão has supported most, if not all, of Bolsonaro’s economic policies, including those designed to avoid Lira’s first two points: “economic recession” and “low employment generation”.

In return, however, the bloc has exacted much tribute, including appointments to plum administrative positions, and legislative boondoggles such as the recent R$4 billion increase in election campaign funding.

Lira’s third prerequisite – “political support for the government” – is precisely what the Centrão now guarantees Bolsonaro. If this support disappears, Bolsonaro will become a lame-duck president, incapable of leading the country and destined for sure defeat in the 2022 elections.

Brazil’s mainstream media harp repeatedly on the possibility of Bolsonaro implementing an “auto-coup” to remain in power, with the help of the military and law enforcement agents.

So far, Arthur Lira has pooh-poohed this possibility. However, his announcement of fake prerequisites for impeachment could indicate that, if Bolsonaro does not continue to kowtow to the Centrão, he would become the second victim of a Brazilian “parliamentary coup”.

Looked at another way perhaps it is a not-too-subtle reminder, to supporters of an auto-coup by Bolsonaro, that there are other coups available under Brazil’s constitution.