Brazil’s water crisis: INMET forecasts below-average rainfall through December for several key regions

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In the Midwest, the largest grain producing region in Brazil, rainfall is expected to be lower than normal for Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Goiás. For Mato Grosso and the Federal District, the forecast is for above average rainfall.

“The largest volumes of surplus water in the soil are expected for the month of December, mainly in the northwest of Mato Grosso, north of Goiás and Federal District,” the institute pointed out in a report.

For the South, INMET, the meteorological services linked to the Ministry of Agriculture, estimates that the strong likelihood of La Niña reinforces the forecast of below-average rainfall for the region. However, it does not rule out periods of heavy rainfall in the quarter under review.

“The rains that have occurred in recent months will contribute to prevent water deficiency in the soil, at least in the months of October and November. However, in December there is a trend towards a reduction in soil moisture levels,” INMET adds.

In the Southeast, only the center-north of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo should register above average rainfall. The other areas of the region should expect a shortage of rain in the quarter.

“A gradual recovery of soil moisture levels is forecast as December approaches, in which higher amouts of water surplus are expected, mainly for the center-south of Minas Gerais and northeast of São Paulo.”

Also as a possible effect of La Niña, INMET indicates that the country’s North and Northeast regions should have above average rainfall between October and December, albeit with a predominance of water deficit in the soil in both regions, with an adequate volume only in the last month of the year.