Pandemic Miracle: Minimum Income Becomes Campaign Pledge in São Paulo Elections

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The success of the emergency aid in boosting Jair Bolsonaro’s national approval rating to 40 percent, according to IBOPE, worked a virtual miracle in the election of the largest city in South America. The right-wing embraced a left-wing agenda and began to advocate a cash transfer program to complement federal initiatives.

The top three mayoralty candidates in current voting intentions – right-wing Celso Russomanno (Republicanos), center-right Bruno Covas (PSDB) and left-wing Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) – all support minimum income programs.

After years of almost isolated preaching in the name of basic citizen income, city councilor Eduardo Suplicy (PT) could easily say “I told you so”. As could French economist Thomas Piketty, regarded as the devil by much of the market for advocating this kind of measure in order to reduce inequality.

São Paulo already counts on a, let’s say, tiny minimum income program, which pays a maximum amount similar to the ‘Bolsa Família’ (Family Grant – R$200) to almost 13,000 families. Covas vows to expand the initiative. Russomanno, influenced by the President, wants to increase the amounts that will be paid by the “Bolsa Bolsonaro” by 15 or 20 percent. In turn, leftist Boulos pledges an average payment of R$350 per family.

Neither program would be universal, for sure. It would serve the most vulnerable. This makes sense, since the R$600/R$1,200 paid in emergency aid caused less of an impact in São Paulo – with one of the highest living costs in Brazil, which became even higher during the crisis – compared to municipalities with a low Human Development Index, for instance.

There is nothing like a global killer pandemic to force a change in behavior. But debating how opportunistic this is, is only a topic for social scientists, not for the poorer population who can benefit from something that should have happened a long time ago. And who will vote next month.

From time to time, the political and economic elites claim that, if implemented, policies to reduce our horrific inequality will lead the country to a financial catastrophe. But considering that more than 105 million people have requested emergency aid and over 65 million have received at least one of its installments, we can say that we are already experiencing a social vulnerability catastrophe. The pandemic merely exposed the magnitude of the plight.

This part of the population that experienced the pleasure of social rights will not accept setbacks any more than will the over 14 million families that benefited from the Grant. Bolsonaro realized this and is seeking to maintain part of the aid to be paid as the ‘Renda Cidadã’ (Citizen’s Income) starting next year. Other politicians who understand this will ensure a competitive advantage in the election.

Likewise, if there are politicians who have “changed” their minds about the ‘Bolsa Família’ or about minimum income programs, not for ideological but pragmatic reasons, it may not be impossible for them to change their minds about taxing the super-rich too.

An accompanying overhaul of the spending ceiling would be required, given that increasing revenue does not necessarily allow raising the spending limit. But it is a good signal flag to be waved in order to perpetuate the “emergency” aid.

This issue could enter the 2022 electoral agenda with the aim of financing a decent basic income program. The debate on Tax Reform, which could in theory impose a levy on the super-rich and shift the weight off the backs of the poor and the lower middle class, has been left open for the time being. In its place, Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes is offering the return of the CPMF (tax on financial transactions).

This would not be achieved without the market grinding its teeth, which is noisy, spoiled and often given to blackmail. But, at the end of the day, the question remains: how many votes does the market have?

A 180-degree change of perspective is a very interesting question. Before his successful pivot, Bolsonaro himself had told only “horror stories” about the ‘Bolsa Família’. In an interview in 2015, he said that those who received the ‘Bolsa Família’ did nothing for a living. “They produce nothing. They don’t contribute to the GDP, they don’t do anything. They had eight children, those eight children will need day care, school, then they will be old. To be what in society? To be nothing,” he said.

Today, he advocates emergency aid payments since early childhood.

He is not alone. Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber of Deputies, said in January 2018 that the ‘Bolsa Família’ “enslaves people”. He claimed that a good social program is one that “provides conditions for people to return to society” and, on their own, get a job. “Citizenship is a job, citizenship is not about depending on the Brazilian State”. Ironically, Maia led the Chamber to double Bolsonaro’s original emergency aid package from R$300 to R$600.

Source: UOL