São Paulo Expected to Grow 5% in 2021, and Brazil 3.5%, Estimates Planning Secretary

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – São Paulo State Treasury and Planning Secretary Henrique Meirelles estimates that the state’s economy should rebound at a faster rate than the country as a whole. The São Paulo government estimates a preliminary 5% growth in the state for 2021, while projections point to a 3.5% growth for Brazil.

Last year, Brazil slumped close to 10% in the second quarter, while São Paulo fell 7%, recalled Meirelles this Tuesday. The rebound was also faster in November, according to data from SEADE (Statewise System for Data Analysis Foundation), he said.

The stronger rebound should enable the recovery of what has been lost in the very pronounced period of decline, believes the ex-president of the Central Bank. Global growth projections for 2021 stands at approximately 5.5%, he recalls. For Brazil, it is below that, but this rate is greatly influenced by China’s growth, projected at 7.8% and India’s, which should grow above 9%, he explained.

The return of activity in São Paulo is being accomplished progressively, the start of vaccination and measures related to the environment, said Meirelles. There is a strong relationship between the speed of vaccination against Covid-19 and economic rebound, according to the secretary.

“The economy is influenced by several factors. One of them is the confidence level,” he said. “When you wait for vaccination and go back to normal, you are talking about confidence level. Vaccination is crucial. What became clear in 2020 is that it was the pandemic that caused the recession and not the measures taken to fight it,” he added.

“We hope that Brazil can make up for lost time,” he said, commenting on the disparity in the immunization process between Brazil and other countries.

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