Brazil Runoff Turnout 80.8%, Lula Ahead by 4.4 Million
Published Sunday, 25 October 2026, 8:25 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results file
Turnout in Brazil’s presidential runoff reached 80.79% of registered voters in the sections counted at 9:25 p.m. Brasília time (8:25 p.m. ET) on Sunday 25 October, with 99.86% of polling sections (groups of voting machines) counted, the electoral court (TSE) reports. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, by 4,368,888 votes, 51.76% to 48.24% of valid votes, and the TSE had not yet marked a winner.
Key Facts
- —Turnout 128,058,493 of 158,504,477 registered voters in the sections counted took part (80.79%); 19.21% stayed away.
- —Lead Lula 64,139,700 votes (51.76%), Flávio Bolsonaro 59,770,812 (48.24%): a gap of 4,368,888 votes.
- —Spoiled ballots 1,428,718 blank (1.12%) and 2,719,263 null (2.12%), fewer than in the first round.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, priced turnout of 80% to 82% at 97.4% and a Lula lead of 2 to 4 points at 98.8% (8:18 p.m. ET).
Live results
Follow Brazil’s runoff count on our results page
Official TSE numbers, state by state, as soon as the electoral court publishes them.
The Brazil election 2026 runoff drew more voters than the first round on 4 October. Our Brazil election results page shows the official numbers state by state.
For the national story, read the runoff results report and see the Brazil election polls tracker.
In Plain English
- Turnout: the share of registered voters who showed up; in Brazil voting is compulsory for most adults aged 18 to 70.
- Blank and null votes: ballots left empty or marked invalid; they count as attendance but not as votes for a candidate.
- Registered voters in the sections counted: the electorate of the sections already counted, the base for the turnout figure.
- Valid votes: votes for a candidate; the percentages for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are shares of these.
How Turnout Compares
In the first round on 4 October, 125,275,835 voters took part, a turnout of 78.92% and an abstention of 21.08%. The runoff turnout of 80.79% is higher by 1.87 percentage points.
In the 2022 runoff, abstention was 20.56%, the TSE’s final figure. This year’s 19.21% is lower.
Blank and Null Votes
Voters left 1,428,718 ballots blank, 1.12% of those cast, and 2,719,263 ballots were null, 2.12%. In the first round the shares were 1.84% blank and 2.93% null.
In the 2022 runoff, 1,769,678 ballots were blank (1.43%) and 3,930,765 were null (3.16%), the TSE’s final figures. Both shares are lower in 2026.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-16.27%
171,721.27
-16.27%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,578.30
-1.56%
3,017,221
—
2,476.96
-2.49%
57,093.72
-0.69%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,721.27 | -16.27% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
How Big Is the Gap?
Lula leads by 4,368,888 votes, or 3.53 percentage points of valid votes. In 2022, Lula beat then-president Jair Bolsonaro by 2,139,645 votes, or 1.80 points, so this gap is about twice as wide.
The sections still uncounted hold about 241,025 registered voters, far fewer than the gap, so the order of the two candidates cannot change. The TSE had not marked a winner at that time.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders priced runoff turnout of 80% to 82% at 97.4%, with US$89,395 traded on that market, at 8:18 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October. Another Polymarket market priced a Lula lead of 2 to 4 points at 98.8%, with US$478,310 traded. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why It Matters for the US
High turnout and a clear gap leave little room for disputes, which investors in Brazilian assets and US-listed funds watch closely. Markets are closed on Sunday, so the first price reaction comes on Monday 26 October.
What Is Not Known
The TSE had not marked a winner when this snapshot was taken, and totals will change slightly as the last sections arrive. We could not confirm the final abstention figure, which the TSE publishes once the count is complete.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How high was turnout in the Brazil runoff?
Turnout was 80.79% of registered voters at 8:25 p.m. ET, with 99.86% of sections counted. That is above the first round’s 78.92%.
How big is the gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro?
Lula led by 4,368,888 votes, 51.76% to 48.24% of valid votes, at 8:25 p.m. ET. The TSE had not yet marked a winner.
Sources: TSE, official results, Polymarket, runoff turnout, Polymarket, margin of victory. Data as of 8:25 p.m. ET, Sunday 25 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.