Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 10, 2026
Key Facts
—The Big Picture. The Dow set another all-time high above 50,100 on Monday, gaining a modest 20 points (+0.04%) as the S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to 6,965 — within striking distance of its own record — and the Nasdaq surged 0.90%. Tech led the rally, extending momentum from Friday’s rebound, while software stocks remained under pressure after Anthropic’s AI automation tools rattled the sector.
— This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
— Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 0.62% on Monday to approximately 184,077, extending its advance toward the all-time high of 186,450 reached on January 29. The real strengthened further to 5.19 per dollar — its strongest level since May 2024 — as the Copom’s rate-cut signal and record foreign inflows continue to underpin the currency.
— The week’s Focus survey showed 2026 IPCA expectations falling for a fifth straight week to 3.97%, reinforcing the case for a March rate cut. GDP growth expectations remain stuck at a sluggish 1.80%, reflecting the toll of the Selic held at a nearly 20-year high of 15.00%.
— Gold surged past $5,000 for the first time in over a week, trading above $5,060, driven by a weaker dollar and China’s 15th consecutive month of central bank gold purchases. Silver recovered to approximately $82, continuing its volatile rebound from the historic late-January crash.
—Latin American divergence continues. Brazil announced its first dollar bond sale of 2026, signaling confidence. Argentina’s MERVAL was flat at ~2,978,000 as markets await Tuesday’s inflation release — a critical test for Milei’s credibility after the INDEC crisis. Mexico’s IPC edged up 0.35%. Colombia’s COLCAP added 0.29%.
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Market Snapshot
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Brazil — February 10, 2026
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa | ~184,077 | +0.62% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1931 | -0.47% |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | MARCH CUT PRICED |
| Brent Crude | $68.98/bbl | +1.37% |
| Gold | $5,066/oz | +2.0% |
| Silver | ~$82/oz | +5.0% |
| Iron Ore | ~$100/t | -8% mo |
| Coffee (Arabica) | ~300 USd/Lbs | +2.8% |
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Today’s Main Event
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Inflation expectations drop for fifth straight week — March cut in play
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Monday’s Focus survey delivered the strongest signal yet that the Copom’s March 17–18 meeting will produce the first Selic cut. The median 2026 IPCA forecast fell for a fifth consecutive week to 3.97% — edging closer to the BCB’s 3.0% target and well within the 1.5–4.5% tolerance band.
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The market consensus for the year-end Selic holds firm at 12.25%, implying roughly 275 basis points of cuts over the remainder of 2026. The real has stabilized near R$5.19–5.22, its strongest sustained level since May 2024, for 17 weeks running — a sign that markets have largely priced in both the tight monetary stance and the expected easing path.
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The disinflationary trend is real: São Paulo consumer prices rose just 0.21% MoM in January, down from 0.32% in December. Brazil’s annual inflation closed 2025 at 4.26% — within target — and the trajectory into 2026 continues to improve. The IPCA-15 reading in late January showed annual inflation ticking up to 4.5%, but under the surface the data was less concerning than the headline suggested.
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The January IPCA print — expected around Wednesday — is the final gatekeeper. A reading in line with or below consensus would make the March cut virtually certain and likely push the Ibovespa past its January 29 all-time high of 186,450. An upside surprise would force a repricing toward May.
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Meanwhile, Brazil announced its first dollar bond sale of 2026, underscoring sovereign confidence. Foreign inflows hit R$26.3 billion in January — a record — and continue to provide structural demand for Brazilian assets.
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Key Facts
— Five straight weeks of declining inflation expectations have turned the March cut from a possibility into a base case. The 50bp cut is now the market’s central scenario. The Focus survey’s 3.97% IPCA forecast — below 4% for the first time in weeks — gives the Copom cover to move. But the BCB has been burned before: the IPCA print this week is the last test before the market fully commits to March.
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Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.27%
166,334.86
-0.27%
64,301.04
+0.07%
11,186.57
+0.34%
2,891,651
-1.89%
2,461.23
+0.36%
58,401.58
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,334.86 | -0.27% | +21.85% | 166,783.57 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Geopolitics & Oil
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Strait of Hormuz warning raises stakes as talks continue
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Brent crude rebounded to $68.98 on Monday (+1.37%), recovering from Friday’s dip as a fresh U.S. warning to American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz injected new risk premium into the market.
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The advisory came even as both sides described last week’s Oman talks as positive and agreed to continue negotiations. Trump called the discussions “very good,” while Tehran described them as a “step forward” — but Iran continues to insist on maintaining uranium enrichment, the core U.S. demand.
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A second front opened on oil flows: Trump announced that India agreed to stop buying Russian crude as part of a trade deal, though New Delhi has yet to officially confirm, emphasizing energy security remains a priority. India is one of Russia’s largest crude buyers, and any halt could significantly support prices.
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For Petrobras, the slightly firmer oil environment is modestly supportive. PETR4 traded around R$37 on Monday. The Foz do Amazonas exploratory drilling authorization remains the bigger long-term story. Investors also await OPEC+ and IEA reports later this week for guidance on the supply outlook.
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Key Facts
— The Strait of Hormuz warning contradicts the diplomatic optimism and reintroduces a geopolitical premium that had been fading. The India–Russia oil question adds another wildcard. Oil is now torn between easing diplomatic tensions (bearish) and new supply-chain risks (bullish). Expect Brent to remain in the $65–72 range unless talks collapse or the India commitment materializes.
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Commodities Update
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Gold breaks $5,000, iron ore sags, coffee near 6-month lows
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Gold surged past $5,000 on Monday, trading above $5,066 — a level not seen in over a week — supported by a weaker dollar, softer inflation expectations, and China’s 15th consecutive month of PBOC gold purchases. Goldman Sachs maintains its $5,400 year-end target, while UBS sees $6,200 before a pullback to $5,900. The metal is firmly in the mid-to-late stage of its bull market.
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Silver continued its volatile recovery, climbing approximately 5% to around $82 as traders bought the dip from the historic late-January selloff. Despite the rebound, silver has erased all its 2026 gains since the record $121 on January 29. Higher margin requirements and the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination triggered the collapse; thin liquidity continues to fuel extreme swings.
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Iron ore held near $100/t but remains under pressure, hovering near eight-week lows as Chinese demand cools ahead of the Lunar New Year. Port inventories in China hit a record 171.4 million tons. Supply pressure mounts from major exporters: Vale delivered record volumes in 2025, and Australia’s Port Hedland resumed operations after cyclone warnings lifted.
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Arabica coffee futures traded near $300/lb — close to six-month lows — pressured by forecasts for a record Brazilian crop. CONAB projects 2026 production growing 17.2% to 66.2 million bags. However, Monday saw a 2.8% rebound as the strengthening real discouraged Brazilian export sales and Colombia reported a 34% YoY drop in January output.
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Economic Calendar
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Week of February 10
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| Date / Time (BRT) | Event | Importance |
| Tue, Feb 10 | Argentina CPI (January) | HIGH |
| Wed, Feb 11 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (January, delayed) | HIGH |
| Wed, Feb 11 | Brazil IPCA Inflation (January) | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 12 | U.S. CPI (January, delayed) | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 12 | OPEC+ Monthly Report | MEDIUM |
| Thu, Feb 13 | UK Q4 GDP (Preliminary) | MEDIUM |
| Ongoing | U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks (Continuation) | MEDIUM |
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Technical Analysis
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Key levels
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
| Ibovespa | 182,000 / 180,000 | ~184,077 | 186,450 / 190,000 |
| USD/BRL | 5.10 / 5.00 | 5.1931 | 5.27 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $65 / $60 | $68.98 | $70 / $72 |
| Gold | $4,900 / $4,700 | $5,066 | $5,200 / $5,400 |
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Latin America Markets
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February 10, 2026
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| Country | Index | Level | Change | FX (USD) |
| Brazil | Ibovespa | 184,077 | +0.62% | 5.19 |
| Mexico | IPC | ~71,059 | +0.35% | 17.20 |
| Argentina | MERVAL | ~2,977,883 | FLAT | 1,470 |
| Colombia | COLCAP | ~2,377 | +0.29% | 3,645 |
| Chile | IPSA | ~11,249 | +0.34% | 856 |
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Mexico: The IPC edged up 0.35% on Monday in quiet trading. Banxico‘s hawkish hold at 7.00% continues to support the peso near 17.20. BBVA’s upgraded year-end IPC target of 76,250 reflects improving earnings momentum. Markets await the next inflation print for clues on whether Banxico’s pause extends.
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Argentina: The MERVAL was essentially flat at ~2,978,000 as investors held positions ahead of Tuesday’s January CPI release — the most scrutinized in months given the INDEC crisis over CPI methodology. The index remains 9.7% below its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502. Country risk at 516 bps. The IMF review adds another layer of scrutiny to Milei’s program.
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Colombia: COLCAP added 0.29% in a modest recovery session. Markets are looking ahead to the central bank’s next rate decision, with the easing cycle expected to continue after the recent pause.
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Chile: The IPSA rose 0.34% to ~11,249 as the copper-fueled rally continued. The peso held firm at 856 per dollar. Inflation falling below the BCCh’s 3% target for the first time since 2021 keeps the door open for further rate cuts. Peru’s S&P/BVL jumped 2.2% ahead of its rate decision on Thursday.
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Key Themes This Week
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Key Facts
— Triple Data Test
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Key Facts
— March Cut Locked In?
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Key Facts
— Gold Breakout
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Key Facts
— Argentina CPI Test
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Bottom Line
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This is the week that could confirm Brazil’s rate-cutting cycle. The Focus survey’s fifth straight decline in inflation expectations — now at 3.97% — has turned the March Copom meeting from a possibility into a base case. But the IPCA print on Wednesday remains the final gatekeeper. A benign reading would cement the 50bp cut narrative, likely push the Ibovespa past its all-time high of 186,450, and drive the real toward 5.10.
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The same day brings the delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls, followed by CPI Thursday — creating a 48-hour data gauntlet that could reset global rate expectations. U.S. futures are steady near records: the Dow above 50,000, the S&P 500 within 1% of its all-time high, and the Nasdaq rallying on tech momentum despite the software sector rout.
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Regional context: Brazil’s exceptionalism within Latin America deepens. The Ibovespa is up ~14% year-to-date with record foreign inflows and a strengthening real. Argentina faces its most critical CPI release in months after the INDEC crisis — the MERVAL remains 9.7% below its January peak. Mexico benefits from Banxico’s hawkish stance and peso resilience. Chile extends its copper-fueled advance. The divergence within the region is the widest in years.
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Key risks: IPCA upside surprise (delays rate cuts, stalls Ibovespa); weak U.S. payrolls reinforcing recession fears (risk-off for EM); hot U.S. CPI (Fed repricing, dollar strength); Argentina CPI credibility crisis (EM sentiment contagion); Strait of Hormuz escalation (oil spike); India–Russia oil disruption; iron ore breakdown below $95 (Vale headwind); silver volatility spillover; Carnival shutdown Feb 16–17 reduces liquidity.
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Previously: Brazil Financial Morning Call — February 7, 2026. Check back Wednesday for continued coverage.
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© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | Brazil Financial Morning Call
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
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