Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 4, 2026
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Market Snapshot — February 3, 2026
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 186,461.00 | +1.96% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2400 | -0.39% |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | unchanged |
| Brent Crude | $66.50/bbl | +0.30% |
| Gold | $4,931/oz | +5.6% |
| Silver | $87.10/oz | +10.1% |
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Today’s Main Event: Bank Earnings Season Begins
\nThe most important catalyst for Brazil markets today is the start of bank earnings season. Together with Bradesco (reporting Feb 5), major banks account for roughly half of the Ibovespa’s market capitalization.
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Santander Brasil (SANB11) — Before Market Open (06:30 BRT)
\nThe first major private lender to report typically sets the tone for the sector. Analysts expect healthy volumes, revenues, and credit quality. The global Santander parent reported record FY2025 profits yesterday (€14.1B), with Brazil remaining a key growth market.
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Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) — After Market Close (18:00 BRT)
\nBrazil’s largest private bank reports Q4 2025 results. Consensus expects double-digit earnings growth guidance for FY2026. Key areas to watch:
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- Consumer credit trends in the high-rate environment
- Outlook for loan growth as rates begin to decline
- Asset quality and provisions trajectory
- 2026 guidance and dividend policy
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\nWith Copom signaling rate cuts from March (markets pricing 50bp to 14.50%), bank commentary on credit costs and margin outlook will be closely scrutinized.
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Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.85%
171,031.73
+1.85%
65,729.18
+2.14%
11,338.38
+0.89%
2,913,184
+1.30%
2,459.23
+0.61%
58,698.13
+2.60%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,031.73 | +1.85% | +21.85% | 167,927.15 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Brazil Economic Data Today
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Services PMI (08:00 BRT)
\nThe S&P Global Brazil Services PMI for January will show whether the services sector maintains expansion (December: 53.7). This is key given manufacturing weakness (December PMI: 47.6 in contraction).
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Industrial Production (07:00 BRT)
\nDecember data expected at -0.8% MoM. November was flat (0.0%). A weak reading would reinforce the case for rate cuts but could weigh on cyclical stocks.
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Commodities: Watch Precious Metals Stability
\nAfter last week’s historic selloff (silver -31%, gold -15% from peak), precious metals rebounded Tuesday on short-covering. Monitor whether stability holds today.
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| Commodity | Price | Daily Chg | From Peak |
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| Gold | $4,931/oz | +5.6% | -12% |
| Silver | $87.10/oz | +10.1% | -27% |
| Iron Ore | $105.85/t | -1.8% | — |
| Brent Crude | $66.50/bbl | +0.3% | — |
\nOil: Brent stabilized as US-Iran nuclear talks (resuming Friday) ease geopolitical premium. Trump cut India tariffs to 18% after Modi agreed to reduce Russian oil imports.
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US Markets: Key Data Today After Tech Selloff
\nUS stocks fell Tuesday (S&P 500 -0.84%, Nasdaq -1.43%) on tech rotation. Today’s focus shifts to critical economic data:
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US Data to Watch Today
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- ADP Employment (08:15 BRT): Consensus 46K — Critical given official jobs report delay
- ISM Services PMI (10:00 BRT): Previous 56.0 — Key gauge of US economy
- JOLTS Job Openings (09:00 BRT): Exp 7.23M — May be delayed by shutdown
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\nShutdown update: House expected to vote on funding today. BLS data releases remain suspended until resolution.
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Economic Calendar: Key Events for February 4, 2026
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Today’s Schedule (BRT)
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| Time (BRT) | Event | Consensus / Previous | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | Santander Brasil Q4 Earnings | — | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 07:00 | Brazil Industrial Production (Dec) | Exp: -0.8% MoM | ⭐⭐ |
| 08:00 | Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) | Prev: 53.7 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:00 | Brazil S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) | Prev: 52.1 | ⭐⭐ |
| 08:15 | US ADP Nonfarm Employment (Jan) | Cons: 46K / Prev: 41K | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 09:00 | US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) — May be delayed | Cons: 7.230M / Prev: 7.146M | ⭐⭐ |
| 09:45 | US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) | Cons: 52.5 / Prev: 52.5 | ⭐⭐ |
| 09:45 | US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) | Cons: 52.8 / Prev: 52.7 | ⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | Prev: 56.0 (Business Activity) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | ISM Non-Mfg Employment (Jan) | Cons: 52.3 / Prev: 52.0 | ⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | ISM Non-Mfg New Orders (Jan) | Prev: 57.9 | ⭐⭐ |
| 18:00 | Itaú Unibanco Q4 Earnings | — | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| After US Close | Alphabet (Google) Q4 Earnings | EPS Exp: ~$2.58 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
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Already Released Today (Pre-Market)
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| Region | Event | Actual | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Nikkei Services PMI (Jan) | 58.5 | 58.0 |
| South Africa | Standard Bank PMI (Jan) | 50.0 | 47.7 |
| Spain | Services PMI (Jan) | 53.5 (miss) | 57.1 |
| Italy | Services PMI (Jan) | 52.9 (beat) | 51.5 |
| France | Services PMI (Jan) | 48.4 (beat) | 50.1 |
| Germany | Services PMI (Jan) | 52.4 (miss) | 52.7 |
| Eurozone | Services PMI (Jan) | 51.6 (miss) | 52.4 |
| Eurozone | Composite PMI (Jan) | 51.3 (miss) | 51.5 |
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Pending Today (Europe)
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- UK Services PMI (Jan) — Cons: 54.3 / Prev: 51.4
- UK Composite PMI (Jan) — Cons: 53.9 / Prev: 51.4
- Italian CPI (Jan) — Cons: 0.4% MoM
- Eurozone CPI (Jan) — Cons: 1.7% YoY / Prev: 1.9%
- Eurozone Core CPI (Jan) — Cons: 2.3% YoY
- Eurozone PPI (Dec) — Cons: -0.3% MoM
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This Week (Remaining)
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- Feb 5: Bradesco Q4 earnings
- Feb 6: Amazon Q4 earnings (after US close), ECB Economic Bulletin
- Feb 6: US Jobs Report — DELAYED due to government shutdown
- Feb 7: US-Iran nuclear talks resume, Canada Employment Report
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Key Themes Today
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- Bank earnings: Santander Brasil (pre-market), Itaú (after close) — credit guidance is key
- Brazil data: Services PMI (08:00), Industrial Production (07:00)
- US data: ADP payrolls (08:15), ISM Services (10:00) — critical given jobs report delay
- Precious metals: Watch if yesterday’s rebound holds or selling resumes
- Shutdown: House vote expected today — resolution could move USD
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Technical Analysis: Key Levels for Brazil Markets
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
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| Ibovespa | 182,000 / 180,000 | 186,461 | 190,000 / 195,000 |
| USD/BRL | 5.17 / 5.10 | 5.2400 | 5.30 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $64 / $60 | $66.50 | $70 / $75 |
| Iron Ore | $100 / $95 | $105.85 | $110 / $115 |
| Gold | $4,700 / $4,500 | $4,931 | $5,200 / $5,600 |
\nRSI approaching overbought after extended rally. Support at 182,000-180,000 key for any pullback.
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Headlines
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- Brazil oil production: 2025 output hit record 4.897M boe/d (+13.3% YoY)
- Boletim Focus: 2026 inflation forecast cut for 5th consecutive week (3.99%)
- XP Investimentos: Year-end target 190,000; optimistic scenario 235,000
- Foreign flows: January inflows R$23B nearly matched all of 2025
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Bottom Line
\nToday’s focus is bank earnings. Santander Brasil (pre-market) and Itaú (after close) will set the tone — strong 2026 guidance could extend the rally, while disappointment on credit quality may trigger profit-taking. Brazil Services PMI and US ADP/ISM data add to a data-heavy session.
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\nKey risks: Precious metals volatility, shutdown resolution impact on USD, bank earnings surprises, weak industrial production data.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
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