Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 5, 2026
Today’s focus: Bradesco reports Q4 2025 results after markets close, putting bank credit costs and 2026 tone back at center stage.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
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Overnight, U.S. jobs data remained messy: the official payroll report is now scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, after the recent shutdown disruption.
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Markets also digest Itaú’s newly published 2026 guidance ranges and the post-ADP read-through.
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Market Snapshot — February 4, 2026
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 181,708.23 | -2.14% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2387 | +0.13% |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | unchanged |
| Brent Crude | $69.46/bbl | +3.16% |
| Gold | $4,950.80/oz | +0.3% |
| Silver | $84.40/oz | +1.3% |
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Today’s Main Event: Bradesco Steps Into the Spotlight
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After Santander and Itaú moved first, Bradesco’s print is the next big stress test for the “rates are peaking” narrative.
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In a high-Selic world, the market will focus less on headline profit and more on what management signals about credit, spreads, and provisioning into 2026.
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Bradesco (BBDC4 / BBDC3) — After Market Close (B3 and NYSE)
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Key areas to watch today:
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- Credit quality and provisioning pace, especially in unsecured consumer lines
- NII and margin trajectory as the market debates the timing and speed of rate cuts
- Fees, insurance performance, and cost discipline
- Any early color on 2026 risk appetite and competitive pressure
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Itaú: Fresh 2026 Guidance Adds a New Reference Point
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Itaú published guidance ranges that the street will use as a benchmark for peers. Highlights include:
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- Total credit portfolio growth: 5.5% to 9.5%
- Brazil credit portfolio growth: 6.5% to 10.5%
- Financial margin with the market: R$2.5 bn to R$5.5 bn ($463m to $1.02bn)
- Cost of credit: R$38.5 bn to R$43.5 bn ($7.13bn to $8.06bn)
- Non-interest expenses: 1.5% to 5.5% growth
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Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.15%
167,431.55
+1.15%
70,184.33
+0.58%
10,536.45
+1.65%
2,848,945
—
2,527.51
-0.01%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,431.55 | +1.15% | +19.56% | 165,528.92 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 109.58 | -5.38% | +66.99% | 115.81 | 111.92 | 109.00 | 34,268 |
| WTI | 100.12 | -1.61% | +63.30% | 101.76 | 102.82 | 99.77 | 201,568 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +53.37% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,073 | +0.85% | +1.32% | 4,038 | 4,079 | 4,002 | 117,083 |
| SILVER | 54.49 | +0.70% | +17.02% | 54.11 | 54.64 | 52.71 | 34,428 |
| LITHIUM | 62.43 | +1.89% | +5.14% | 61.27 | 62.62 | 61.56 | 130,024 |
| SOY | 1,250 | +0.70% | +17.12% | 1,241 | 1,262 | 1,249 | 156,494 |
| CORN | 450.25 | -1.04% | +5.01% | 455.00 | 455.00 | 449.75 | 143,350 |
| WHEAT | 614.75 | -0.20% | +16.87% | 616.00 | 618.50 | 610.00 | 51,884 |
| COFFEE | 294.35 | -2.19% | -24.54% | 300.95 | 304.90 | 289.05 | 16,022 |
| SUGAR | 19.26 | +0.84% | +33.20% | 19.10 | 19.42 | 19.03 | 74,161 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 143.20 | +5.45% | -26.07% | 135.80 | 148.80 | 142.50 | 1,394 |
| COTTON | 77.90 | -1.47% | +20.66% | 79.06 | 81.07 | 80.01 | 20,308 |
| BEEF | 230.73 | +0.33% | +0.83% | 229.98 | 231.58 | 229.75 | 13,888 |
| CATTLE | 346.40 | -1.00% | +0.26% | 349.90 | 349.70 | 346.33 | 5,755 |
| COCOA | 5,581 | +1.66% | -9.72% | 5,490 | 5,622 | 5,444 | 13,619 |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| KLABIN | 18.73 | -0.43% | +6.46% | 18.81 | 19.04 | 18.45 | 6,051,800 |
| SLCE3 | 16.97 | -2.75% | +19.37% | 17.45 | 17.77 | 16.94 | 3,109,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
| LREN3 | 9.75 | +0.72% | -33.67% | 9.68 | 10.33 | 9.75 | 29,053,800 |
Brazil Data Watch: Trade Balance Later Today
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Balance of Trade (January) — 18:00 BRT. This matters for near-term FX tone, especially with global data releases still reshuffled by the U.S. shutdown.
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A stronger surplus can help the real at the margin, but the market will still take its main cues from rates and risk sentiment.
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US Markets: Weekly Labor Signals, Plus a Delayed JOLTS
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With the official U.S. jobs report moved to February 11, today’s focus shifts to the high-frequency labor pipeline.
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US Data to Watch Today (BRT)
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- Initial Jobless Claims — 10:30 BRT
- Continuing Claims — 10:30 BRT
- JOLTS Job Openings (December, delayed) — 12:00 BRT
- Natural Gas Storage — 12:30 BRT
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Economic Calendar: Key Events for February 5, 2026
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| Time (BRT) | Event | Consensus / Previous | Importance |
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| 10:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims (week) | Previous: 209K | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:30 | US Continuing Claims (week) | Previous: 1.827M | ⭐⭐ |
| 12:00 | US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec, delayed) | — | ⭐⭐ |
| 18:00 | Brazil Balance of Trade (Jan) | — | ⭐⭐ |
| After close | Bradesco Q4 Earnings | — | ⭐⭐⭐ |
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This Week (Remaining)
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- Feb 6: Bradesco earnings call (morning), ECB Economic Bulletin
- Feb 6: U.S. Jobs Report remains delayed and is now scheduled for Feb 11
- Feb 7: U.S.–Iran talks scheduled to continue, keeping oil sensitive to headlines
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Key Themes Today
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- Banks: Bradesco results after close; credit costs and 2026 tone matter most
- FX: Trade balance is the main Brazil macro print today
- US macro: Claims and delayed JOLTS are the labor proxies until Feb 11 payrolls
- Oil: Brent is headline-driven into the scheduled U.S.–Iran talks window
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Technical Analysis: Key Levels for Brazil Markets
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
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| Ibovespa | 180,000 / 176,500 | 181,708 | 185,700 / 190,000 |
| USD/BRL | 5.20 / 5.10 | 5.2387 | 5.30 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $67 / $64 | $69.46 | $72 / $75 |
| Gold | $4,800 / $4,650 | $4,950.80 | $5,050 / $5,200 |
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Headlines to Track
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- Oil: Brent jumped to $69.46 on February 4 as the market priced Middle East risk ahead of scheduled talks.
- US data: The January U.S. employment report is now scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, reshaping the week’s macro pacing.
- Banks: Itaú published 2026 guidance ranges, giving investors a clearer yardstick for Bradesco’s tone tonight.
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Bottom Line
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Tonight’s Bradesco release is the day’s hinge. If management sounds confident on provisions and margins, bank multiples can stabilize after yesterday’s index drop.
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Stay Updated on Brazil Markets
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Follow our daily morning calls for the latest analysis on Brazilian equities, currencies, and commodities.
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Check back tomorrow for Bradesco reaction and the next catalysts on the calendar.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief