Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 6, 2026
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Key Facts
—The Big Picture. Markets digest Bradesco’s Q4 results after last night’s release showed margin recovery and improved credit quality, sending the ADR up 4.6% in New York. U.S.–Iran nuclear talks begin today in Oman—Brent crude fell 2% overnight as diplomacy reduces the geopolitical premium. Brazil’s January trade balance ($4.3 billion surplus, up 86% YoY) came in slightly below expectations but confirms the external accounts remain supportive.
— This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
— The Ibovespa rose approximately 0.5% Thursday to around 182,500, recovering modestly from Wednesday’s sharp 2.1% selloff. Itaú gained nearly 1% on its stellar Q4, while Bradesco added 0.7% ahead of earnings. The real held steady near R$5.24 per dollar as carry flows continue despite precious metals volatility.
—Latin American divergence. While Brazil recovered, the region showed mixed performance. Mexico’s IPC edged up 0.2% to 68,837 as the peso held near 17.40. Argentina’s MERVAL tumbled 2.9% amid profit-taking. Colombia’s COLCAP suffered a sharp 2.5% decline as financials led the selloff. Chile continued its strong run with the IPSA near record highs.
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Market Snapshot
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Brazil — February 5, 2026
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa | 182,500 | +0.5% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2555 | +0.32% |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | HOLD |
| Brent Crude | $68.07/bbl | −2.0% |
| Gold | $4,950/oz | FLAT |
| Silver | $76.06/oz | −13.3% |
| Iron Ore | $101.03/t | −1.1% |
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Today’s Main Event
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Bradesco Q4 results land
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Bradesco reported Q4 2025 earnings after Thursday’s close, showing EPS of $0.37 and signs of margin stabilization. The ADR (BBD) surged 4.56% to $4.13 on heavy volume of 38.9 million shares, well above the 35.2 million average. Trailing P/E stands at 10.82 with a market cap of $42.4 billion — the stock is now up 19.64% year-to-date, reflecting improved sentiment on the bank’s turnaround.
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Analysts cited stable loan performance and margin improvement as the main drivers. The earnings call today (morning) will provide color on 2026 guidance and provisioning trajectory.
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Bradesco’s results complete the major bank earnings trifecta. Santander set a cautious tone with its “challenging macro” commentary; Itaú delivered a blowout (24.4% ROE, best since 2015). Bradesco lands somewhere in between — recovery visible, but execution risks remain.
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Key Facts
— The Bradesco results validate the sector’s recovery narrative without matching Itaú’s exceptional performance. For the Ibovespa, where banks account for roughly half of market cap, the combination of Itaú’s strength and Bradesco’s stabilization should provide a floor for the index after Wednesday’s sharp correction.
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Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.85%
171,031.73
+1.85%
65,223.89
+1.36%
11,338.38
+0.89%
2,913,184
+1.30%
2,459.23
+0.61%
58,698.13
+2.60%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,031.73 | +1.85% | +21.85% | 167,927.15 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Geopolitics
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U.S.–Iran talks in Oman
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U.S. and Iranian officials begin nuclear talks today (February 6) in Muscat, Oman. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi will meet with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in what represents the most significant diplomatic engagement in years.
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Brent fell 2% overnight to $68.07 as the mere prospect of talks reduces the geopolitical risk premium. Further de-escalation could push prices toward $60; breakdown risks a spike back toward $75. For Petrobras, lower oil is a mixed bag — reduces earnings upside but improves domestic fuel pricing flexibility. PETR4 likely to track Brent direction.
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Successful talks would be broadly risk-on for EM assets. Headlines from Oman will drive intraday volatility.
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Key Facts
— The oil move is the dominant signal — a 2% overnight drop on diplomacy alone suggests further downside if talks produce a framework. For Brazil, lower oil is net positive for the current account and BRL, but pressures Petrobras earnings expectations.
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Brazil Trade Balance
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January 2026
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| Metric | Actual | Expected | Verdict |
| Trade Surplus (Jan) | $4.3B | $4.9B | SOFT MISS |
| YoY Change | +86% | — | STRONG |
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Strong agribusiness performance (soy, beef) offset weaker iron ore pricing, with China demand remaining the key driver. Capital goods imports rose, suggesting investment recovery, while fuel imports fell on softer oil prices. Surplus supportive of BRL, but the modest miss is unlikely to move the currency significantly — carry trade dynamics dominate.
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Commodities Update
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Iron ore, gold, silver, coffee
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Iron ore fell to $101.03/t (−1.1%), hitting seven-week lows as China demand concerns persist despite recent stimulus measures. Vale and CSN Mineração remain exposed. Gold stabilized at $4,950/oz after its recent correction, with the $5,000 level acting as key psychological resistance; central bank buying provides structural support.
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The session’s standout move was silver, which plunged 13.3% to $76.06/oz — now 38% below its $122 peak. Extreme volatility; watch for spillover into broader risk sentiment. Coffee futures held near $308/lb (−0.3%). In the Colombia selloff, Grupo Nutresa bucked the trend with an 8.1% gain.
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Economic Calendar
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February 6
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| Time (BRT) | Event | Importance |
| TBD (AM) | Bradesco Earnings Call | HIGH |
| All Day | U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks (Oman) | HIGH |
| 10:30 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (January) | HIGH |
| 10:30 | U.S. Unemployment Rate | MEDIUM |
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Technical Analysis
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Key levels
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
| Ibovespa | 180,000 / 176,500 | 182,500 | 185,700 / 190,000 |
| USD/BRL | 5.17 / 5.10 | 5.2555 | 5.30 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $64 / $60 | $68.07 | $70 / $72 |
| Gold | $4,700 / $4,500 | $4,950 | $5,050 / $5,200 |
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Latin America Markets
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February 5, 2026
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| Country | Index | Level | Change | FX (USD) |
| Brazil | Ibovespa | 182,500 | +0.5% | 5.26 |
| Mexico | IPC | 68,837 | +0.2% | 17.38 |
| Argentina | MERVAL | 2,929,307 | −2.87% | 1,447 |
| Colombia | COLCAP | ~2,070 | −2.54% | 3,645 |
| Chile | IPSA | ~11,400 | +0.95% | 867 |
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Mexico: The IPC extended its monthly gains to 5.9%, supported by the peso’s strength (17.40 per dollar) and Banxico’s cautious easing stance. Materials sector led with +5.3% weekly gains. The peso rebounded after three consecutive sessions of declines.
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Argentina: The MERVAL fell 2.87% as investors booked profits after the index hit all-time highs in late January. Despite the daily decline, the index remains up 17% year-over-year. The peso held near 1,447 per dollar, strengthening slightly on the session.
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Colombia: COLCAP suffered a broad selloff with financials leading losses. Bancolombia preferred shares fell 5.9%, Grupo Cibest dropped 4.9%. Grupo Nutresa was the sole bright spot, rising 8.1% to all-time highs. The peso weakened to 3,645 per dollar.
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Chile: The IPSA extended its rally toward record highs, up 8.4% month-to-date — the best January start since 1997. Pension reform approval and the Kast election victory continue to fuel inflows. Morgan Stanley raised its mid-2026 target to 10,900. Peso gained to 867 per dollar.
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Key Themes Today
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— Bank Earnings
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— Geopolitics & Oil
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— LATAM Divergence
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— Precious Metals
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Bottom Line
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Today’s session hinges on two catalysts: Bradesco’s earnings call and the U.S.–Iran talks in Oman. The bank results are in — margin recovery is confirmed — so the call is about 2026 guidance and whether management can match Itaú’s confidence. The geopolitical wildcard will set the tone for oil and global risk sentiment.
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Regional context: Brazil’s resilience stands out versus Latin American peers. While Argentina and Colombia saw sharp profit-taking, Brazil’s bank earnings cycle and supportive external accounts provide a floor. Mexico continues to benefit from peso strength and Banxico’s cautious stance. Chile remains the region’s standout performer on political tailwinds.
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Key risks: Breakdown in Iran talks (oil higher, risk-off); Bradesco guidance disappointment (banks under pressure); silver volatility spillover; weak U.S. labor data reinforcing slowdown concerns; contagion from Colombia selloff to broader EM financials.
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Previously: Brazil Financial Morning Call — February 5, 2026. Check back Monday for continued coverage and week-ahead preview.
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© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | Brazil Financial Morning Call
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
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