Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 14, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
\n
-
\n \t
- Banco Master liquidation drama → heightens scrutiny on Brazilian banks, risking broader confidence erosion amid fraud probe and potential R$41B claims
- Trump’s Iran tariff threat → exposes Brazil to trade dilemmas, with $2.9B exports at stake versus U.S. market access
- Auto sector momentum → 2025 ends with 2.08% registrations growth to 2.69M units, bolstered by easing credit; Mercosur-EU deal may reshape imports and local production
- Petrobras milestone → Tupi field hits 1M bpd again, reinforcing pre-salt dominance and export/fiscal support
- Precious metals surge → gold near $4,632/oz and silver above $90/oz on U.S. rate-cut conviction, offsetting dollar stability
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n
\nBroader risk: Banking probes, geopolitical tariffs, and U.S. policy/geopolitical tensions could spill into EM volatility, pressuring rates, FX, equities, and commodities
\n
\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. These are integrated with ongoing developments, such as the persistent Banco Master collapse, which involves R$41 billion in potential claims and fraud allegations.
\n
\nAdditionally, Trump’s 25% tariff threat on Iran trade risks Brazil’s $2.9 billion in exports and increases compliance costs. The 2025 auto market is showing strength, closing robustly with 2.69 million registrations amid credit easing.
\n
\nMeanwhile, the Mercosur-EU deal could potentially lower vehicle tariffs over 15–18 years, altering local manufacturing. Finally, Petrobras is restoring Tupi to 1 million barrels per day to enhance oil output.
\n
\n
\n
\nIn Brazil, Auto Production (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT and Auto Sales (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT gauge industry health following 2025’s strong performance.
\n
\nThese indicators are vital for employment and GDP. Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for January at 11:00 AM BRT tracks consumer sentiment amid fiscal and trade risks.
\n
\nMeanwhile, Foreign Exchange Flows at 12:30 PM BRT reveal capital trends, which are key for the stability of the real. In the U.S., Retail Sales (MoM) for November at 8:30 AM EST signals consumer spending strength, influencing global growth expectations.
\n
\nCore PPI (MoM) for October at 8:30 AM EST monitors producer inflation, affecting Federal Reserve policy bets. Later, the Beige Book at 2:00 PM EST provides regional economic insights, potentially guiding policy amid concerns over central bank independence.
\n
\nAnd FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 2:10 PM EST could clarify rate paths, swaying dollar and EM assets.
\n
Economic Agenda for January 14, 2026
\n
Brazil
\n
-
\n \t
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -11.6%
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -8.5%
- 11:00 AM BRT – Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 53.15
- 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Cons: – Prev: -4.127B
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n
\n
Mexico
\n
-
\n \t
- 11:00 AM CST – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 55.16
\n
\n
Argentina
\n
-
\n \t
- 11:00 AM ART – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 47.87
\n
\n
Chile
\n
-
\n \t
- No major releases today.
\n
\n
Colombia
\n
-
\n \t
- 10:00 AM COT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 1.9%
\n
\n
United States
\n
-
\n \t
- 8:30 AM EST – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.5% Prev: 0.0%
- 8:30 AM EST – Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) Cons: – Prev: 0.1%
- 2:00 PM EST – Beige Book Cons: – Prev: –
- 2:10 PM EST – FOMC Member Williams Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n
\n
EU
\n
-
\n \t
- 3:15 AM CET – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
- 5:30 AM CET – German 30-Year Bund Auction Cons: – Prev: 3.260%
\n \t
\n
\n
UK
\n
-
\n \t
- 5:30 AM GMT – 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction Cons: – Prev: 4.613%
- 10:30 AM GMT – MPC Member Ramsden Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
\n \t
\n
\n
China
\n
-
\n \t
- 5:00 AM CST – New Loans (Dec) Cons: 820.0B Prev: 390.0B
- 5:00 AM CST – M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 8.0% Prev: 8.0%
- 5:00 AM CST – Chinese Total Social Financing (Dec) Cons: 2,000.0B Prev: 2,490.0B
\n \t
\n \t
\n
\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian auto data and consumer sentiment are main domestic focuses — stronger figures could affirm sector resilience, supporting real & equities amid trade threats.
\n
\nU.S. retail sales and PPI are global spotlights: robust data might temper rate-cut hopes, bolstering dollar and weighing on EM; softer reads would fuel easing bets, lifting risk assets like BRL.
\n
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Tuesday, January 13, 2026)
\nIbovespa -0.72% to 161,973 on R$24.9 billion turnover. Petrobras surge offset by bank fears from Master case and Wall Street dip; top gainers included PETR3 +3.41%, PETR4 +2.57%, GGBR4 +1.93%.
\n
\nEarly Wednesday mini-futures ~163,140–163,760 (~0.7% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.3759. Charts cooling with support at 161,765, weekly uptrend holding.
\n
\nRead more
\n
Commodity Markets
\n
-
\n \t
- Gold – Around $4,632/oz near records; surged on rate-cut conviction post-U.S. inflation match, ETF inflows up; overbought but upward trend.
- Silver – Around $90.11/oz above $90 milestone; outperforming on industrial demand and rate narrative; testing toward $100, gold-silver ratio 53.27.
- Copper – Around $13,160/ton on LME; firm amid softer U.S. inflation and rate-cut lean, supporting industrial metals.
- Platinum – Around $2,386.60/oz; sharply higher with precious rally on macro bets.
- Palladium – Around $1,854.70/oz; modestly higher but lagging, driven by broader sentiment.
- Aluminium – Around $3,200/ton on LME; steady-to-firmer, tracking base metals as financing eases.
- Iron Ore – Around $107.90/ton; mostly steady, balancing China demand caution.
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n \t
\n
\nRead more
\n
Currency
\nBrazilian Real → Softened slightly with dollar near R$5.3759; influenced by U.S. inflation/Fed politics/geopolitics; technicals trapped 5.35–5.40, bullish exhaustion signs.
\n
\nRead more
\n
Companies and Market
\nWhy the “Master case” won’t go away: The Banco Master collapse, the court fight, and the money at risk → Liquidation amid fraud probe, TCU oversight dispute, potential R$41B claims; ties to BRB with R$16.7B transfers, risking R$10B+ losses.
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nTrump’s 25% Iran-trade tariff threat puts Brazil in the crosshairs → Immediate 25% U.S. tariff on countries trading with Iran; Brazil’s $2.9B exports (corn/soy/sugar) vs. $84.5M imports at risk, raising compliance costs.
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nBrazil’s auto market ends 2025 stronger than forecasts as credit squeeze eases at the finish → Registrations up 2.08% to 2.69M units, Dec +8.6% to 279K; electrified +60.8% to 285K; Toyota disruptions noted, 2026 forecast +3%.
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nMercosur–EU deal could change what Brazilians drive—and where cars are built → Phased tariff cuts over 15-18 years on vehicles; impacts BMW/Jaguar Land Rover plants, potential Chinese EV backdoor via EU.
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nPetrobras brings Tupi back to the 1-million-barrel-a-day club → Santos Basin field over 1M bpd on Jan 9 via 11 new wells; pre-salt ~80% output, partners Shell/Galp.
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nCury’s record 2025 sets up a high-stakes 2026 test for Brazil’s housing market → Net profit +46% in 9M, Q3 R$255.3M; launches R$6.36B YTD, sales R$5.55B; tax exemptions/subsidies to boost 2026 demand.
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nBrazil’s Helbor sales rise 15% in Q4 as launches jump nearly 90% → Q4 gross sales R$661.8M (+15.2%), full-year R$2.226B; launches R$2.2B across 11 projects, VSO 48.1%.
\n
\nRead more
\n
U.S. Markets Yesterday (Tuesday, January 13, 2026)
\nEdged lower: Dow -0.8% to 49,191.99, S&P 500 -0.2% to 6,963.74, Nasdaq -0.1% to 23,709.87.
\n
\nEased off records as earnings began; December CPI +0.3% m/m +2.7% y/y, core +2.6% y/y dipped yields. Financials dragged, weekly gains: Dow ~1.2%, S&P ~0.7%, Nasdaq ~0.9%.
\n
Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:
\nColombia peso surge to ~3,649.7/USD & COLCAP +1.05% to 2,236.51 amid oil tailwind and carry support
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nMexico peso steady ~17.8181/USD, IPC ~66,294 consolidating after U.S. inflation, Banxico caution
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nArgentina peso tight ~1,485/USD official, Merval down 1.3% to 3,036,000 amid calm FX gap
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nChile peso firms to ~886/USD, IPSA +1.7% to 11,254.48 lifted by copper and rate-cut pricing
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nNote: Crypto markets jump as ETF money returns but the rally still looks fragile — Bitcoin ~$95,000 on $753.8M inflows; Ethereum +$130M; fragile with overheat signals.
\n
\nRead more
Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.36%
176,010.90
-0.36%
66,409.65
-0.18%
10,947.38
-0.70%
3,291,246
+1.92%
2,292.03
-0.29%
57,174.37
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,010.90 | -0.36% | +30.14% | 176,641.10 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | +0.06% | -8.57% | 5.07 | 5.08 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.82 | -0.61% | -9.69% | 5.85 | 5.82 | 5.82 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 84.57 | -0.45% | +23.42% | 84.95 | 85.75 | 84.34 | 2,512 |
| WTI | 79.38 | -0.28% | +19.58% | 79.60 | 80.59 | 79.14 | 12,665 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +66.81% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,033 | -0.27% | +20.30% | 4,044 | 4,072 | 4,029 | 18,528 |
| SILVER | 57.37 | +0.46% | +51.56% | 57.11 | 58.23 | 57.16 | 5,143 |
| LITHIUM | 71.06 | -0.73% | +78.86% | 71.58 | 71.81 | 70.24 | 267,936 |
| SOY | 1,200 | -0.19% | +18.40% | 1,202 | 1,205 | 1,197 | 8,446 |
| CORN | 469.00 | +4.80% | +15.73% | 447.50 | 470.50 | 468.00 | 10,543 |
| WHEAT | 676.25 | -0.18% | +24.94% | 677.50 | 679.75 | 673.00 | 7,360 |
| COFFEE | 324.50 | -3.77% | +3.16% | 337.20 | 336.40 | 321.00 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.86 | -0.13% | -10.27% | 14.88 | 14.99 | 14.71 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 140.45 | +0.14% | -54.88% | 140.25 | 143.50 | 135.65 | — |
| COTTON | 82.13 | +3.18% | +22.67% | 79.60 | 79.67 | 78.28 | 15,911 |
| BEEF | 230.13 | -0.56% | +2.78% | 231.43 | 232.10 | 229.25 | 20,583 |
| CATTLE | 344.38 | -1.27% | +5.77% | 348.80 | 346.58 | 342.25 | 10,305 |
| COCOA | 5,917 | +4.54% | -28.90% | 5,660 | 6,082 | 5,583 | — |
| PETR4 | 40.59 | -0.17% | +27.04% | 40.66 | 40.59 | — | — |
| VALE3 | 74.51 | +0.68% | +38.21% | 74.01 | 75.00 | 73.80 | 15,445,500 |
| SUZB3 | 41.48 | +0.90% | -17.86% | 41.11 | 41.48 | — | — |
| KLABIN | 17.39 | +0.40% | -7.99% | 17.32 | 17.39 | — | — |
| SLCE3 | 13.50 | -2.24% | -16.64% | 13.81 | 13.50 | — | — |
| ABEV3 | 15.57 | -1.52% | +17.33% | 15.81 | 15.57 | — | — |
| ITUB4 | 43.14 | -1.12% | +26.88% | 43.63 | 43.14 | — | — |
| BBDC4 | 18.60 | -0.16% | +15.53% | 18.63 | 18.60 | — | — |
| BBAS3 | 20.55 | -0.19% | -1.67% | 20.59 | 20.55 | — | — |
| B3SA3 | 15.69 | +2.35% | +14.28% | 15.33 | 15.85 | 15.42 | 36,695,600 |
| WEGE3 | 44.26 | +0.14% | +11.57% | 44.20 | 44.26 | — | — |
| PRIO3 | 57.50 | -0.12% | +36.51% | 57.57 | 57.50 | — | — |
| RENT3 | 40.35 | -0.47% | +9.32% | 40.54 | 40.35 | — | — |
| AZZA3 | 18.66 | -1.01% | -48.45% | 18.85 | 18.66 | — | — |
| CSNA3 | 5.24 | +0.77% | -35.15% | 5.20 | 5.25 | 5.07 | 10,812,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.20 | +3.77% | +46.93% | 23.32 | 24.42 | 23.09 | 15,374,800 |
| ENEV3 | 26.95 | -0.81% | +100.07% | 27.17 | 26.95 | — | — |
| LREN3 | 14.10 | -1.33% | -23.95% | 14.29 | 14.10 | — | — |