Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 15, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
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- Fiscal fine print scrutiny → Brazil’s 2025 deficit near zero at 0.1% GDP, but adjustments including court costs push it higher to 0.48%, highlighting debt pressures amid rising gross debt to 79.3% GDP
- Political shift in key state → Minas Gerais Governor Zema plans March 2026 resignation to run for president, aiming to build national profile in fragmented 2026 election field
- Housing sector cash test → MRV&Co reports Q4 sales up 5.9% to R$2.76B with record cash generation, but turnaround hinges on converting sales to bank transfers amid U.S. unit burn
- Ibovespa record surge → Index hits new high despite global dips, led by commodities amid foreign inflows
- Currency risk repricing → USD/BRL reclaims R$5.40 on geopolitics and local politics, signaling higher Brazil premium
- Precious metals pullback → Gold and silver ease from records on profit-taking, while copper retreats amid demand concerns
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\nBroader risk: Fiscal adjustments, political maneuvers, and geopolitical tensions could amplify EM volatility, impacting FX, equities, and commodities
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\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. These are integrated with ongoing developments.
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\nBrazil’s 2025 fiscal deficit remained near zero at 0.1% of GDP but rises to 0.48% when including fine-print adjustments, such as court-ordered payments. This highlights persistent debt dynamics and keeps markets focused on actual cash flows.
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\nAdditionally, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema’s planned March resignation to pursue a presidential run could reshape opposition strategies in the 2026 election, testing electoral dynamics in a key economic state.
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\nMRV&Co’s housing turnaround shows Q4 sales growth to R$2.76 billion with improved cash, but success depends on timely bank transfers.
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\nIn Brazil, Retail Sales (YoY) for November at 7:00 AM BRT and Retail Sales (MoM) for November at 7:00 AM BRT assess consumer spending trends, crucial for GDP amid fiscal pressures.
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\nAuto Production (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT and Auto Sales (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT evaluate industry resilience, vital for employment and manufacturing output.
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\nIn Mexico, Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) for October at 7:00 AM CST signals capital spending health, influencing growth prospects; Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) for October at 7:00 AM CST tracks annual investment shifts amid regional trade dynamics.
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\nIn the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST monitors labor market strength, affecting Fed policy; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) at 8:30 AM EST gauges factory activity, impacting global supply chains; Natural Gas Storage at 10:30 AM EST reveals energy inventory levels, influencing commodity prices.
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Economic Agenda for January 15, 2026
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Brazil
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- 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.1%
- 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.5%
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -11.6%
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -8.5%
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Mexico
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- 7:00 AM CST – Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 1.50% Prev: -0.30%
- 7:00 AM CST – Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) (Oct) Cons: -4.30% Prev: -6.70%
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Argentina
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- No major releases today.
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Chile
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- No major releases today.
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Colombia
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- No major releases today.
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United States
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- 8:30 AM EST – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 215K Prev: 208K
- 8:30 AM EST – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) Cons: -1.6 Prev: -10.2
- 10:30 AM EST – Natural Gas Storage Cons: -89B Prev: -119B
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EU
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- 2:45 AM CET – French CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.2%
- 3:00 AM CET – Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
- 4:00 AM CET – ECB Economic Bulletin Cons: – Prev: –
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UK
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- 2:00 AM GMT – GDP (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.1%
- 2:00 AM GMT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.3%
- 2:00 AM GMT – Trade Balance (Nov) Cons: -20.30B Prev: -24.17B
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China
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- 2:00 AM CST – M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 8.0% Prev: 8.0%
- 2:00 AM CST – New Loans (Dec) Cons: 820.0B Prev: 390.0B
- 2:00 AM CST – Chinese Total Social Financing (Dec) Cons: 2,000.0B Prev: 2,490.0B
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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian retail and auto data are main domestic focuses — stronger figures could affirm consumer and sector resilience, supporting real & equities amid fiscal and political shifts.
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\nU.S. jobless claims and manufacturing are global spotlights: robust data might temper rate-cut hopes, bolstering dollar and weighing on EM; softer reads would fuel easing bets, lifting risk assets like BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 14, 2026)
\nIbovespa +1.96% to 165,145.98 on R$21.3 billion turnover. Commodities led surge with VALE3 +4.74%, PETR4 nearly +3%; top gainers included VALE3 +4.74%, BRAP4 +4.32%, TIMS3 +4.30%.
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\nEarly Thursday mini-futures ~165,800–166,200 (~0.4% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.394. Charts bullish with breakout above rising averages, support at 164,000.
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\nRead more
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Commodity Markets
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- Gold – Around $4,608.77/oz down 0.3%; eased on profit-taking and softer geopolitical tone after record, but safe-haven demand lingers.
- Silver – Around $89.63/oz down 3.4%; unwinding crowded rally with volatility, testing support amid industrial outlook.
- Copper – Around $13,129.50/ton on LME; pulled back 0.45% from record on physical demand concerns, despite fund interest.
- Platinum – Around $2,321.65/oz down 2.6%; sliding in profit-taking wave with precious metals retreat.
- Palladium – Around $1,804.10/oz down 1.3%; easing with safe-haven cooling, lagging broader rally.
- Aluminium – Around $3,200/ton on LME; up 0.1%, holding near highs on tight supply narrative.
- Iron Ore – Around $107.68/ton; flat, under pressure from China output signals but balanced by supply focus.
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Currency
\nBrazilian Real → Weakened with dollar reclaiming R$5.40 to near 5.4008; driven by geopolitics (U.S. visa suspensions, Iran tensions) and politics (polls, minister chatter); technicals cautious with RSI mid-40s, pivot at 5.406.
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Companies and Market
\nBrazil says 2025 deficit stayed near zero, but the fine print matters → Closed at 0.1% GDP deficit within tolerance, but including adjustments rises to 0.48%; debt at 79.3% GDP, focus on cash outflows and potential reshuffle.
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\nBrazil’s key swing state goes national: report says Governor Zema plans a March exit to run → Resignation March 22 to campaign for president, handing to vice; Minas Gerais (8.9% GDP) key for polls, Zema at 5-6% nationally.
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\nMRV’s cash turnaround faces a single test: turning home sales into bank transfers → Q4 sales R$2.76B (+5.9%), launches R$2.85B; cash generation R$174.8M ex-assignments, but U.S. unit burns $25.6M; transfers 9,865 units.
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 14, 2026)
\nFinished lower: Dow -0.09% to 49,149.63, S&P 500 -0.53% to 6,926.60, Nasdaq -1.00% to 23,471.75.
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\nTech selloff amid earnings and geopolitics; rotation to energy and value; weekly mixed with broader participation improving.
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Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:
\nColombia peso rally to ~3,655/USD & COLCAP up on $5B issuance inflows and oil tailwind
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\nMexico peso stronger ~17.81/USD, IPC +1.6% to 67,403 new high on Banxico caution and blue-chips
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\nArgentina peso stronger ~1,453/USD official, Merval -2.84% to 2,950,111 amid tight liquidity
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\nChile peso firms to ~881.62/USD, IPSA -0.3% to 11,219.98 cooling after records on risk aversion
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\nNote: Crypto markets bid as ETF inflows return — Bitcoin ~high-$80,000s on $471.3M inflows; Ether +$174.5M; altcoins wild with surges/drops.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.36%
176,010.90
-0.36%
66,409.65
-0.18%
10,947.38
-0.70%
3,291,246
+1.92%
2,292.03
-0.29%
57,174.37
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,010.90 | -0.36% | +30.14% | 176,641.10 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | +0.06% | -8.57% | 5.07 | 5.08 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.82 | -0.61% | -9.69% | 5.85 | 5.82 | 5.82 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 84.51 | -0.52% | +23.34% | 84.95 | 85.75 | 84.41 | 2,308 |
| WTI | 79.38 | -0.28% | +19.58% | 79.60 | 80.59 | 79.26 | 11,680 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +66.81% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,037 | -0.17% | +20.42% | 4,044 | 4,072 | 4,029 | 16,451 |
| SILVER | 57.38 | +0.46% | +51.57% | 57.11 | 58.23 | 57.16 | 4,604 |
| LITHIUM | 71.06 | -0.73% | +78.86% | 71.58 | 71.81 | 70.24 | 267,936 |
| SOY | 1,200 | -0.17% | +18.43% | 1,202 | 1,205 | 1,197 | 8,126 |
| CORN | 469.50 | +4.92% | +15.85% | 447.50 | 470.50 | 468.00 | 9,965 |
| WHEAT | 676.75 | -0.11% | +25.03% | 677.50 | 679.75 | 673.00 | 6,844 |
| COFFEE | 324.50 | -3.77% | +3.16% | 337.20 | 336.40 | 321.00 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.86 | -0.13% | -10.27% | 14.88 | 14.99 | 14.71 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 140.45 | +0.14% | -54.88% | 140.25 | 143.50 | 135.65 | — |
| COTTON | 82.13 | +3.18% | +22.67% | 79.60 | 79.67 | 78.28 | 15,911 |
| BEEF | 230.33 | -0.48% | +2.87% | 231.43 | 232.10 | 229.25 | 20,583 |
| CATTLE | 344.95 | -1.10% | +5.95% | 348.80 | 346.58 | 342.25 | 10,305 |
| COCOA | 5,917 | +4.54% | -28.90% | 5,660 | 6,082 | 5,583 | — |
| PETR4 | 40.59 | -0.17% | +27.04% | 40.66 | 40.59 | — | — |
| VALE3 | 74.51 | +0.68% | +38.21% | 74.01 | 74.51 | — | — |
| SUZB3 | 41.48 | +0.90% | -17.86% | 41.11 | 41.48 | — | — |
| KLABIN | 17.39 | +0.40% | -7.99% | 17.32 | 17.51 | 17.20 | 3,912,500 |
| SLCE3 | 13.50 | -2.24% | -16.64% | 13.81 | 13.50 | — | — |
| ABEV3 | 15.57 | -1.52% | +17.33% | 15.81 | 15.57 | — | — |
| ITUB4 | 43.14 | -1.12% | +26.88% | 43.63 | 43.14 | — | — |
| BBDC4 | 18.60 | -0.16% | +15.53% | 18.63 | 18.68 | 18.48 | 22,309,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.55 | -0.19% | -1.67% | 20.59 | 20.55 | — | — |
| B3SA3 | 15.69 | +2.35% | +14.28% | 15.33 | 15.85 | 15.42 | 36,695,600 |
| WEGE3 | 44.26 | +0.14% | +11.57% | 44.20 | 44.26 | — | — |
| PRIO3 | 57.50 | -0.12% | +36.51% | 57.57 | 57.50 | — | — |
| RENT3 | 40.35 | -0.47% | +9.32% | 40.54 | 40.35 | — | — |
| AZZA3 | 18.66 | -1.01% | -48.45% | 18.85 | 18.91 | 18.54 | 1,039,200 |
| CSNA3 | 5.24 | +0.77% | -35.15% | 5.20 | 5.24 | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.20 | +3.77% | +46.93% | 23.32 | 24.42 | 23.09 | 15,374,800 |
| ENEV3 | 26.95 | -0.81% | +100.07% | 27.17 | 26.95 | — | — |
| LREN3 | 14.10 | -1.33% | -23.95% | 14.29 | 14.10 | — | — |