Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 16, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Offshore oil milestone → Petrobras hits 2.4M bpd average in 2025, up 11% YoY and above guidance, bolstering exports and energy security via pre-salt ramps like Búzios and Tupi

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• Auto sector drag → Brazil’s 2025 recovery cooled with production at 2.64M vehicles (up 3.5% but below targets) and sales up 2.1%, hit by expensive credit extending replacement cycles

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• Housing builders resilient → Moura Dubeux posts record R$4.6B launches and R$698M Q4 sales but shares slip on possible R$250-500M offering; affordable players Plano&Plano and Cury grow full-year VGV 38% and 26% despite Q4 slowdowns

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• Ibovespa record streak → Index hits another record as banks lead, dollar slides and global risk mood improves

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• Currency stability → Real holds its ground near R$5.37 despite global dollar firmness

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• Metals correction → Precious and industrial metals pull back from extremes on profit-taking and firmer USD

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\nBroader risk: Fiscal adjustments, political election maneuvers, and geopolitical tensions could amplify EM volatility, impacting FX, equities, and commodities
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Economic Agenda for January 16, 2026

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Brazil

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• 6:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 0.0%

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• 7:00 AM BRT – IBC-Br Economic Activity (Nov) Cons: 0.30% Prev: -0.20%

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• 7:00 AM BRT – Brazilian PPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: -0.48%

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Mexico

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• No major releases today.

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Argentina

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• No major releases today.

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Chile

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• No major releases today.

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Colombia

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• No major releases today.

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United States

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• 9:15 AM EST – Capacity Utilization Rate (Dec) Cons: 76.0% Prev: 76.0%

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• 9:15 AM EST – Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.2%

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• 9:15 AM EST – Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 2.52%

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Canada

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• 8:15 AM EST – Housing Starts (Dec) Cons: 257.0K Prev: 254.1K

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• 8:30 AM EST – Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov) Cons: 24.61B Prev: 46.62B

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• 8:30 AM EST – Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Nov) Cons: – Prev: -11.580B

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EU

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• 2:00 AM CET – German CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.0% Prev: -0.2%

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• 2:00 AM CET – German CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 1.8% Prev: 2.3%

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• 2:00 AM CET – German HICP (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.5%

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UK

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• 40 min – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks Cons: – Prev: –

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• 8:00 AM GMT – NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -0.1%

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India

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• 6:30 AM IST – FX Reserves, USD Cons: – Prev: 686.80B

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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian inflation and activity data are main domestic focuses — stronger figures could affirm resilience, supporting real & equities amid oil strength and fiscal scrutiny.
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\nU.S. industrial metrics and rig counts are global spotlights: robust data might temper rate-cut hopes, bolstering dollar and weighing on EM; softer reads would fuel easing bets, lifting risk assets like BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 15, 2026)

\nIbovespa +0.26% to 165,568.32 on R$27.5 billion turnover. Banks and locals led with VAMO3 +7.61%, MGLU3 +4.05%, MULT3 +2.83%; commodities mixed amid global risk improvement.
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Commodity Markets

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• Gold – Around $4,603.44/oz down 0.26%; edging lower after stronger U.S. numbers lifted the dollar and reduced near-term Fed cut expectations, trimming demand at record levels.

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• Silver – Around $90.90/oz down 1.60%; correcting after an outsized surge, with volatility and profit-taking stronger than in gold.

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• Copper – Around $5.89/lb (~$12,985/ton) down 1.70%; retreating from extreme highs as talk grows that the rally has become crowded and vulnerable to a correction.

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• Platinum – Around $2,353.10/oz down 2.36%; giving back part of a fast rally, with profit-taking hitting hard as the safe-haven bid softens.

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• Palladium – Around $1,803.50/oz down 3.86%; dropping with the broader pullback in precious metals as the dollar firms and rate-cut hopes cool after upbeat U.S. data.

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• Aluminium – Around $3,133.50/ton down 1.16%; pulling back after a strong run, tracking the softer tone across risk assets and industrial metals.

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• Iron Ore – Around $107.39/ton unchanged; stale trading with no meaningful volume.

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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Held ground with dollar easing to near 5.3681; driven by geopolitics easing (Iran risks cooling) and local politics (election narratives); technicals consolidating with RSI low-to-mid 40s, pivot at 5.355 support.
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Companies and Market

\nPetrobras Hits 2.4 Million bpd in 2025, Strengthening Brazil’s Offshore Output Story → Averaged 2.4M bpd oil (up 11% YoY), total 2.99M boe/d; above guidance via pre-salt ramps like Búzios P-78 and Tupi tweaks; supports exports despite strikes.
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\nRead more 
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\nBrazil’s Auto Recovery Cooled In 2025, And The Weak Spot Was Credit → Production 2.64M vehicles (up 3.5% but missed targets), sales 2.69M (up 2.1%); exports +32.1%; credit costs extended cycles, imports rose to 18.5% share.
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\nRead more 
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\nMoura Dubeux Beats Expectations, Then Slips on a Possible Share Sale → Q4 launches R$998M (up 115%), sales R$698M (up 34%); cash burn R$28M; potential R$250-500M offering for affordable growth, dilution ~10-19%.
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\nRead more 
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\nLaunches Slowed but Brazil’s Affordable Builders Kept 2025 Growth Alive → Plano&Plano (+38% VGV) and Cury (+26% VGV) show resilience in low-income segment despite Q4 moderation.
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\nRead more 
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 15, 2026)

\nRebound: Dow +0.6% to 49,442.44, S&P 500 +0.26% to 6,944.47, Nasdaq +0.25% to 23,530.02. Semiconductors and big banks led after strong earnings; small caps outperformed.
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Regional Peers — Mixed:

\nColombia peso holds firm as stocks hit records but crowding risks rise
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\nRead more 
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\nAfter a record high, Mexico’s peso meets a stock market reality check
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\nRead more
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\nAfter a high-stakes rollover, Argentina’s peso holds while stocks cool
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\nRead more 
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\nChile’s peso and stocks hit a crossroad as copper cools and traders reposition
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\nRead more
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\nNote: Crypto markets cool after a fast squeeze as Bitcoin holds $95,000
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\nRead more 

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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