Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 28, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• PicPay IPO → Brazil’s PicPay files for Nasdaq IPO (ticker PICS) at $16–$19/share, targeting $434M raise and $2.46B valuation; tests Pix-era wallet shift to credit banking amid turnaround from R$1.9B 2021 loss to R$252M 2024 profit, with 67M accounts and R$804M capital injections.

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• Embraer backlog → Record $31.6B firm orders (+20% YoY), led by commercial aviation ($14.5B, +42% YoY) with 244 deliveries (+18% YoY); signals strong demand but delivery challenges ahead, boosting Brazil’s aerospace sector.

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• External accounts → 2025 deficit hits $68.8B (3.02% GDP, widest since 2014) on shrinking trade surplus, but FDI $77.7B covered it fully; funding resilience amid structural pressures. https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-external-accounts-hit-the-biggest-shortfall-since-2014-but-funding-still-held-up/

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• Oil power → Oil drives 3.5% GDP, $44.67B 2025 exports, R$81B royalties; output up to 3.309M bpd (81% pre-salt), with 10%+ 2026 growth bet supporting jobs/investment despite global supply risks.

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• FDI swing → December net outflow $5.2B (first since 2014) on earnings distributions, but annual $77.7B inflow (3.41% GDP) exceeds $68.8B deficit; monthly volatility risks FX/inflation.

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• Vale Q4 → Iron ore output 90.4Mt (+6% YoY), full-year 336.1Mt (highest since 2018); $95.4/t price but $0.9/t premium compression; copper/nickel gains strengthen Brazil’s export position.

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• Ibovespa surge → +1.79% to record 181,919.13 (intraday >183,000) on R$35.3B turnover; softer IPCA-15 (0.20% vs. 0.23% expected) and foreign flows fuel rally.

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• Real strengthening → USD/BRL -1.38% to 5.2067 (multi-year low); global dollar weakness, commodity bids, inflation surprise drive oversold momentum (RSI ~23).

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• Crypto creep → Bitcoin ~$89,105 (+0.9%), ETH ~$3,003 (+2.6%); fragile rally amid ETF outflows, policy delays, Fed risks.

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• Metals surge → Gold $5,262.66/oz (+1.4%, record high), silver $115.40/oz (+2.0%); dollar slide/Fed defensiveness boost safe-havens.

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\nBroader risk: Real/equity momentum and commodity bids buffer EM pressures, but extreme conditions, policy decisions (Fed/BCB/BoC), and fintech/external vulnerabilities could trigger volatility; oil/FDI strength provides growth offset.
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Economic Agenda for January 28, 2026

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Brazil

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• 4:30 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision Cons: 15.00% Prev: 15.00%

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Mexico

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• No events scheduled.

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United States

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• 7:00 AM EST – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Cons: – Prev: 6.16%

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• 7:00 AM EST – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) Cons: – Prev: 14.1%

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• 7:00 AM EST – MBA Purchase Index Cons: – Prev: 194.1%

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EU

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• 2:00 AM CET – GfK German Consumer Climate (Feb) Act: -24.1 Cons: -25.5 Prev: -26.9

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• 4:00 AM CET – Italian Business Confidence (Jan) Act: 89.2 Cons: 89.0 Prev: 88.5

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• 4:00 AM CET – Italian Consumer Confidence (Jan) Act: 96.8 Cons: 97.0 Prev: 96.6

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Canada

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• 9:45 AM EST – BoC Monetary Policy Report Cons: – Prev: –

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• 9:45 AM EST – BoC Rate Statement Cons: – Prev: –

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• 9:45 AM EST – BoC Interest Rate Decision Cons: 2.25% Prev: 2.25%

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India

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• 5:48 AM IST – Cumulative Industrial Production (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 3.30%

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• 5:48 AM IST – Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 5.5% Prev: 6.7%

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• 5:48 AM IST – Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 8.0%

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Japan

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• 6:50 PM JST – Foreign Bonds Buying Cons: – Prev: -361.4B

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• 6:50 PM JST – Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks Cons: – Prev: 874.0B

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Australia

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• 5:30 AM AEST – Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) Cons: – Prev: -0.9%

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• 5:30 AM AEST – Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) Cons: -0.2% Prev: -0.4%

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• 5:30 AM AEST – NAB Business Confidence (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 1

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\nImplication: Brazil’s BCB rate decision tests policy stance amid real strength, cooling inflation (recent IPCA-15 miss), and external resilience; hold at 15% could signal caution on growth risks, impacting FX/equities.
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\nU.S. MBA mortgage data gauge housing/resilience ahead of Fed hold at 3.75% (2:00 PM EST statement/presser), potentially lifting yields/pressing EMFX if hawkish.
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\nEU GfK/Italian confidence add sentiment nuance, with ECB speaks informing inflation views. Canada’s BoC hold at 2.25% probes easing path amid labor data, influencing commodity currencies.
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\nIndia industrial metrics signal manufacturing health; Japan foreign flows track investor appetite; Australia trade/prices/business data inform RBA inflation/growth bets. Global policy focus (Fed/BoC/BCB) dominates tone amid dollar softness and metals bids.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

\nIbovespa +1.79% to 181,919.13 on R$35.3 billion turnover (heavy). Opened lower but hit intraday record above 183,000. Softer IPCA-15 and foreign flows fueled rally; Vale (+~3%), Petrobras led amid Brent +2.81% to $66.59.
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $1,946.75/oz, up 0.7%.
\nWhat’s happening: Rising with the wider safe-haven bid as the dollar slides.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $2,685.16/oz, up 1.7%.
\nWhat’s happening: Still supported by risk-off flows, even after Monday’s record spike.
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Gold

\nPrice: $5,262.66/oz, up 1.4%.
\nWhat’s happening: A plunging dollar and Fed-day defensiveness are driving another leg higher.
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Silver

\nPrice: $115.40/oz, up 2.0%.
\nWhat’s happening: Momentum stays strong after a record run, with volatility still elevated.
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Copper

\nPrice: $13,153/ton, up 0.99% (LME 3-month).
\nWhat’s happening: Staying bid near extremes as tight-inventory anxiety keeps buyers engaged.
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Aluminum

\nPrice: $3,283/ton, up 2.19% (LME 3-month).
\nWhat’s happening: Rebounding with broad base-metal strength, helped by a still-tight market.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR Qingdao index)

\nPrice: about $106.05/ton, unchanged.
\nWhat’s happening: Holding above $100 as China steel output cools, but regional demand keeps support.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL near R$5.2067 after sharp retreat; global dollar weakness, commodity bids, inflation surprise support downswing into multi-year lows with oversold momentum (RSI ~23).
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\nRead more 
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Companies and Market

\nPicPay’s Nasdaq IPO Tests Whether Pix-Era Wallets Can Become Real Banks
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\nRead more 
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\nEmbraer’s Record Backlog Signals Demand Strength, And A Tough Delivery Test
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\nRead more 
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\nBrazil’s External Accounts Hit the Biggest Shortfall Since 2014, But Funding Still Held Up
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\nRead more 
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\nOil’s Quiet Power In Brazil: Exports, Revenues, And The 2026 Growth Bet
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\nRead more 
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\nBrazil’s FDI Turned Negative While The Current Account Improved In December
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\nRead more 
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\nVale’s Q4 Iron Ore Beat: Higher Output, Better Prices, But Premiums Compressed
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\nRead more 
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\nIbovespa Reclaims Record Trail Ahead Of “Super Wednesday” As Inflation Cools And Foreign Cash Returns
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\nRead more 
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\nDollar Slides To A Fresh Multi-Year Low As Brazil’s Real Catches A Perfect Storm
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\nRead more 
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\nBitcoin Creeps Back Toward $90,000 As Metals Surge And Policy Risk Looms
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\nRead more 
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U.S. Markets Yesterday

\nS&P 500 +~0.4% to ~6,977–6,978, Nasdaq +~0.8–0.9% to ~23,801–23,817, Dow -~0.8% to ~49,003. Mixed finish; health insurance drag (UnitedHealth plunge on Medicare update) offset by tech/chips; dollar pressure, gold surge, yields ~mid-4% on 10y ahead of Fed.
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Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia’s Peso Wobbles Near 3,650 As Stocks Take A Breather From Record Highs
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\nRead more 
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\nDollar Tests Fresh Lows As Peso Strength Deepens While Mexico’s IPC Stays Near Records
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\nRead more 
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\nArgentina’s Peso Tightens the Blue Gap as Stocks Surge and the Dollar Slides Globally
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\nRead more 
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\nChile Markets Morning Update: USD/CLP Near 858 As IPSA Extends Its Run
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\nRead more 
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\nNote: Crypto markets remain fragile amid ETF flows and policy uncertainties.

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate