Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 7, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
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- New competition for B3 on horizon → Mubadala-backed Base Exchange targets 2026-27 launch
- Fintech revival test → PicPay’s U.S. IPO filing signals potential return of Brazil tech listings
- Ibovespa presses near record → Vale surge leads, oil drags energy
- Key data watch: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + JOLTS + ADP employment
- Broader risk: Risk-on tone persists with record Wall Street highs, supportive for EM flows
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\nLatin America’s markets continue the trading week, with Brazil’s B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region’s deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products. Mexico’s Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally.
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Top Story: Mubadala-Backed Base Exchange Targets 2026–27 Launch to Challenge B3 Monopoly
\nBase Exchange, backed by Mubadala (holding ~73% stake, exploring up to 10 global banks/market makers as minority partners), aims to launch late-2026 or early-2027 to introduce competition in spot equities and post-trade services, ending B3’s one-venue dominance since 2017.
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\nPlans include own clearinghouse, start with spot shares/stock lending/FIIs/ETFs/BDRs (futures/derivatives later), and no crypto initially.
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\nGoal: fairer costs, higher volumes (20–25% lift), lower implicit trading costs (25–30%) based on global precedents. CVM completed testing; Central Bank review next post-Carnival (Feb 2026). Investors see potential for increased liquidity, reduced costs, but execution risks remain.
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Economic Agenda for January 7, 2026
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Brazil
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- 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Prev: -5.047B
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Mexico
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- No major releases today.
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Argentina
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- No major releases today.
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Chile
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- 06:30 AM BRT – Copper Exports (USD) (Dec)
- 06:30 AM BRT – Exports (USD) (Dec)
- 06:30 AM BRT – Imports (USD) (Dec)
- 06:30 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Dec)
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Colombia
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- 10:00 AM BRT – Exports (YoY) (Nov)
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United States
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- 07:00 AM BRT – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) / 30-Year Rate
- 08:15 AM BRT – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) Cons: 49K Prev: -32K
- 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Cons: 52.2 Prev: 52.6
- 10:00 AM BRT – JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) Cons: 7.610M Prev: 7.670M
- 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories
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EU
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- Various CPI/Retail Sales/PMI (e.g., German Retail Sales MoM -0.6% Act vs 0.2% Cons, French Consumer Confidence 90).
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UK
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- 39 min from open – Construction PMI (Dec)
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China
\n03:00 AM BRT – FX Reserves (USD) (Dec) Act: 3.358T Prev: 3.346T
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\nImplication: Brazil’s FX Flows provide visibility on capital movements amid real strength. U.S. labor data (ADP, JOLTS) + ISM Non-Mfg PMI + oil stocks are key for Fed path, dollar sentiment, commodity demand, and EM carry trades.
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\nChile’s trade/copper data ties to global demand; softer global prints could support BRL. EU/UK data adds to services/consumer health view.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Tuesday, January 6, 2026)
\nIbovespa +1.11% to 163,663.88, closing near record high of 164,455.61. Vale surged on firmer iron ore (Dalian 801 yuan/ton); banks firm on credit growth/low delinquency.
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\nEnergy lagged with Petrobras down on drilling-fluid leak pause and Brent near $60. Top winners: Hapvida +8.70%, Assaí +5.62%, Braskem +5.13%. Uptrend strong — futures ~165,950–166,083 point to potential record break.
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Currency
\nBrazilian Real ↑ – USD/BRL -0.47% to R$5.40 close (support 5.35–5.37, resistance 5.39–5.40). Drivers: softer broad dollar (DXY 98.54), steady risk appetite, commodity flows, 2025 trade surplus $76.4B (above forecasts, 2026 proj $70-90B), Selic 10.75%.
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Companies and Market
\nKey developments: Base Exchange launch plan challenges B3 monopoly; PicPay U.S. IPO filing (Nasdaq PICS) tests fintech revival (66M accounts, 42M active users, Q3 payment volume R$141B, 9M profit R$313.8M); PRIO strong 2025 output (avg 106,375 boepd, Dec 155,780 boepd, Peregrino 80% share major driver); Tourism boom fuels formal hiring (106,979 net jobs Jan-Nov 2025, 2.43M total workers).
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Tuesday, January 6, 2026)
\nHigher close with fresh records: Dow +1.0% to 49,462.08, S&P 500 +0.6% to 6,944.82, Nasdaq +0.6% to 23,547.17. Russell 2000 +1.4% to 2,582.90 (small caps outperformance).
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\nRisk-on tone despite geopolitics; focus on upcoming data (Friday jobs) and Fed path. Treasury yields little changed (10y ~4.18%, 2y ~3.47%).
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\nRegional Peers — Positive tone: Colombia peso firm/stocks rally despite softer oil | Mexico peso near 18/stocks cool near highs | Argentina peso holds/reserves rise/big bond payment near | Chile peso firms/copper hot/IPSA fresh record.
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\nNote: Crypto thin-liquidity whipsaws: Bitcoin mid-$94k to low-$92k; Bitcoin ETFs flip to -$243.2M outflows (Jan 6) after +$697.2M inflows; Ethereum +$114.7M inflows. Vulnerable to reversals in low volume.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.35%
172,758.89
-0.35%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,877.68
-0.18%
3,281,489
+1.79%
2,309.56
+0.49%
56,620.35
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,758.89 | -0.35% | +28.49% | 173,371.35 | 173,720 | 172,219 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.27% | -9.00% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -1.09% | -10.64% | 5.85 | 5.82 | 5.79 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 91.08 | +2.08% | +31.60% | 89.22 | 91.97 | 87.88 | 26,469 |
| WTI | 84.20 | +1.17% | +25.30% | 83.23 | 85.03 | 81.39 | 167,747 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,079 | +1.70% | +19.89% | 4,010 | 4,088 | 4,003 | 91,897 |
| SILVER | 59.40 | +4.57% | +51.91% | 56.80 | 59.55 | 56.38 | 28,343 |
| LITHIUM | 69.17 | +3.36% | +62.75% | 66.92 | 69.23 | 68.35 | 191,053 |
| SOY | 1,219 | -0.61% | +20.05% | 1,226 | 1,230 | 1,218 | 86,300 |
| CORN | 472.25 | +5.06% | +16.97% | 449.50 | 474.25 | 469.00 | 90,343 |
| WHEAT | 668.75 | -0.78% | +23.33% | 674.00 | 678.75 | 665.25 | 40,019 |
| COFFEE | 327.15 | -2.17% | +10.06% | 334.40 | 335.40 | 321.35 | 10,296 |
| SUGAR | 14.83 | +0.07% | -9.41% | 14.82 | 14.92 | 14.76 | 24,076 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 147.60 | +0.14% | -54.90% | 147.40 | 149.90 | 143.65 | 216 |
| COTTON | 79.51 | +2.77% | +19.49% | 77.37 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 5,018 |
| BEEF | 222.20 | -1.91% | -1.34% | 226.52 | 224.68 | 221.98 | 10,472 |
| CATTLE | 343.53 | -2.41% | +4.86% | 352.00 | 348.05 | 343.20 | 4,057 |
| COCOA | 5,626 | +1.92% | -31.02% | 5,520 | 5,733 | 5,405 | 15,882 |
| PETR4 | 41.56 | +1.00% | +33.59% | 41.15 | 41.67 | 41.13 | 13,172,100 |
| VALE3 | 71.88 | -0.07% | +28.31% | 71.93 | 72.97 | 71.57 | 5,598,300 |
| SUZB3 | 41.75 | -0.33% | -18.14% | 41.89 | 41.90 | 41.59 | 467,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.40 | -0.46% | -6.27% | 17.48 | 17.50 | 17.36 | 493,800 |
| SLCE3 | 13.67 | +0.74% | -15.05% | 13.57 | 13.76 | 13.54 | 378,300 |
| ABEV3 | 15.77 | -0.13% | +17.51% | 15.79 | 15.88 | 15.74 | 3,955,700 |
| ITUB4 | 42.29 | -0.02% | +22.83% | 42.30 | 42.53 | 42.18 | 3,322,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.43 | +0.11% | +17.54% | 18.41 | 18.54 | 18.35 | 5,406,800 |
| BBAS3 | 20.30 | +0.64% | +2.27% | 20.17 | 20.30 | 20.08 | 4,404,000 |
| B3SA3 | 14.97 | -1.90% | +14.27% | 15.26 | 15.32 | 14.97 | 7,463,500 |
| WEGE3 | 42.60 | -1.23% | +1.55% | 43.13 | 43.34 | 42.59 | 2,444,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.81 | +1.94% | +37.68% | 57.69 | 58.96 | 58.11 | 1,745,100 |
| RENT3 | 36.64 | -2.27% | +2.46% | 37.49 | 37.51 | 36.61 | 1,770,900 |
| AZZA3 | 17.58 | -3.25% | -50.44% | 18.17 | 18.27 | 17.57 | 599,200 |
| CSNA3 | 5.08 | +0.20% | -36.30% | 5.07 | 5.16 | 5.05 | 3,484,500 |
| GGBR4 | 23.61 | -0.04% | +42.12% | 23.62 | 23.77 | 23.42 | 1,141,500 |
| ENEV3 | 25.26 | -1.52% | +82.97% | 25.65 | 25.66 | 25.12 | 1,023,000 |
| LREN3 | 13.16 | -1.13% | -24.67% | 13.31 | 13.41 | 13.12 | 1,872,300 |