Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 8, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
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- Record 2025 dollar outflows yet real strengthened → capital flight offset by high rates & carry trade
- 2025 trade surplus maintained post-U.S. tariffs → export redirection & commodity resilience
- Ibovespa slips on bank pressure → Banco Master uncertainty weighs
- Key data watch: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims + Trade Balance + Nonfarm Productivity
- Broader risk: Caution ahead of Friday payrolls reinforces “higher-for-longer” Fed view
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\nLatin America’s markets continue the trading week, with Brazil’s B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region’s deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products. Mexico’s Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally.
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Top Story: Record 2025 Dollar Outflows Yet Real Strengthened
\nBrazil recorded its second-largest net dollar outflow on record in 2025, driven by dividend/interest remittances, portfolio outflows amid fiscal concerns, and corporate hedging.
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\nDespite this, the real appreciated significantly due to high Selic rates (carry trade appeal), strong commodity exports, and global USD weakness. Trade surplus remained robust as Brazil redirected flows post-U.S. tariffs, highlighting structural resilience.
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\nRead more on the dollar outflow in Brazil
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\nInvestors view this as a testament to Brazil’s yield-driven attractiveness, though persistent outflows raise questions on sustainability if fiscal risks escalate.
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Economic Agenda for January 8, 2026
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Brazil
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- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.5%
- 06:00 AM BRT – IGP-DI Inflation Index (MoM) (Dec)
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Mexico
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- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.40% Prev: 0.66%
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.80% Prev: 3.80%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.42% Prev: 0.19%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Month Core Inflation (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 4.34% Prev: 4.43%
- 10:00 AM BRT – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
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Argentina
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- 14:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
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Chile
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- 06:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 06:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.3%
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Colombia
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- 18:00 PM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.38% Prev: 0.07%
- 18:00 PM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 5.20% Prev: 5.30%
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United States
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- 08:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 213K Prev: 199K
- 08:30 AM BRT – Continuing Jobless Claims Cons: 1,900K Prev: 1,866K
- 08:30 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Oct) Cons: -58.10B Prev: -52.80B
- 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 4.9% Prev: 3.3%
- 10:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.5%
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EU
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- Various CPI/PPI/Consumer Sentiment (e.g., PPI YoY (Nov) Cons: -1.9% Prev: -0.5%, Unemployment Rate (Nov) Cons: 6.4%).
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UK
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- 02:00 AM BRT – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec) Act: -0.6% Prev: -0.1%
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China
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- 20:30 PM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 0.8% Prev: 0.7%
- 20:30 PM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: -1.5% Prev: -2.2%
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\nImplication: Brazil’s Industrial Production and IGP-DI offer insight into manufacturing recovery and inflation pressures. Mexico/Chile/Colombia CPI data test regional price dynamics.
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\nU.S. jobless claims + trade balance + productivity are critical for labor market view, dollar direction, and Fed expectations ahead of Friday payrolls — softer data could ease USD pressure on EM currencies.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 7, 2026)
\nIbovespa slipped to 161,975 on Banco Master’s unresolved legal/regulatory fallout pressuring banks. Global caution ahead of Friday U.S. payrolls reinforced “higher-for-longer” rates.
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\nEnergy lagged; risk appetite cooled but foreign interest persists (EWZ ~$2.19B net inflows past year). Momentum paused after recent gains.
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\nRead more on Brazil’s B3 performance
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Commodity Markets
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- Gold – Paused after new-year surge (weighing war risk, Fed bets, index flows).
- Silver – Sudden plunge exposes thin liquidity & leverage.
- Copper – Record run meets reality as tariff premium warps global flows.
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\nRead more on Gold
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\nRead more on Silver
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\nRead more on Copper
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Currency
\nBrazilian Real → Steady near R$5.38 as Banco Master risk tests confidence but high yields & commodity support hold.
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\nRead more on the Brazilian Real
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Companies and Market
\nEmbraer ends 2025 with record deliveries (strong backlog supports outlook); tourism record (9.3M foreign arrivals in 2025) fuels hiring & economic impact; no other major individual headlines.
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\nRead more on Embraer
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 7, 2026)
\nMixed close: S&P 500 6,920.93 (-0.34%), Dow 48,996.08 (-0.94%), Nasdaq 23,584.27 (+0.16%), Russell 2000 2,575.42 (-0.29%). Cooling after early-year gains; selective tech held, cyclicals/industrials trimmed. VIX +4.27% to 15.38 (cautious tone); DXY +0.11% to 98.68.
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\nRegional Peers — Cautious/mixed: Colombia peso tries to base/stocks consolidate near records | Mexico peso steady near 18/IPC breather | Argentina dollar lifeline/stocks blink on risks | Chile peso holds near 895/copper pullback cools rally.
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\nRead more on Colombia
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\nRead more on Mexico
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\nRead more on Argentina
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\nRead more on Chile
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\nNote: Crypto January bounce hits speed bump (thin liquidity, ETF flows reverse); vulnerable to volatility.
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\nRead more
Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
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-0.36%
176,010.90
-0.36%
66,409.65
-0.18%
10,947.38
-0.70%
3,291,246
+0.00%
2,292.03
-0.29%
57,174.37
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,010.90 | -0.36% | +30.14% | 176,641.10 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.05% | -8.56% | 5.08 | 5.08 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.82 | +0.18% | -9.71% | 5.81 | 5.82 | 5.81 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 84.56 | -0.46% | +23.41% | 84.95 | 85.75 | 83.83 | 11,078 |
| WTI | 79.39 | -0.26% | +19.60% | 79.60 | 80.59 | 78.91 | 39,914 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +66.81% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,029 | -0.36% | +20.19% | 4,044 | 4,072 | 4,026 | 35,747 |
| SILVER | 56.80 | -0.54% | +50.05% | 57.11 | 58.23 | 56.69 | 11,657 |
| LITHIUM | 71.06 | -0.73% | +78.86% | 71.58 | 71.81 | 70.24 | 267,936 |
| SOY | 1,205 | +0.21% | +18.87% | 1,202 | 1,207 | 1,197 | 19,518 |
| CORN | 471.00 | +5.25% | +16.22% | 447.50 | 474.25 | 468.00 | 41,382 |
| WHEAT | 683.00 | +0.81% | +26.19% | 677.50 | 698.25 | 671.50 | 38,902 |
| COFFEE | 317.20 | -5.16% | +0.84% | 334.45 | 323.50 | 316.25 | 3,406 |
| SUGAR | 14.48 | -2.49% | -12.56% | 14.85 | 14.86 | 14.45 | 24,607 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 140.45 | +0.14% | -54.88% | 140.25 | 143.50 | 135.65 | — |
| COTTON | 80.82 | +0.32% | +20.72% | 80.56 | 79.67 | 78.28 | 3,797 |
| BEEF | 226.00 | -2.34% | +0.94% | 231.43 | 232.10 | 229.25 | 20,583 |
| CATTLE | 349.95 | +0.33% | +7.49% | 348.80 | 346.58 | 342.25 | 10,305 |
| COCOA | 5,602 | -2.35% | -32.68% | 5,737 | 6,013 | 5,563 | 4,555 |
| PETR4 | 40.59 | -0.17% | +27.04% | 40.66 | 40.80 | 40.23 | 25,588,900 |
| VALE3 | 74.51 | +0.68% | +38.21% | 74.01 | 75.00 | 73.80 | 15,445,500 |
| SUZB3 | 41.48 | +0.90% | -17.86% | 41.11 | 41.93 | 40.77 | 4,097,000 |
| KLABIN | 17.39 | +0.40% | -7.99% | 17.32 | 17.51 | 17.20 | 3,912,500 |
| SLCE3 | 13.50 | -2.24% | -16.64% | 13.81 | 13.88 | 13.41 | 3,272,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.57 | -1.52% | +17.33% | 15.81 | 15.73 | 15.35 | 31,444,500 |
| ITUB4 | 43.14 | -1.12% | +26.88% | 43.63 | 43.62 | 43.05 | 18,968,600 |
| BBDC4 | 18.60 | -0.16% | +15.53% | 18.63 | 18.68 | 18.48 | 22,309,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.55 | -0.19% | -1.67% | 20.59 | 20.73 | 20.43 | 14,716,900 |
| B3SA3 | 15.69 | +2.35% | +14.28% | 15.33 | 15.85 | 15.42 | 36,695,600 |
| WEGE3 | 44.26 | +0.14% | +11.57% | 44.20 | 44.37 | 43.21 | 7,916,000 |
| PRIO3 | 57.50 | -0.12% | +36.51% | 57.57 | 57.91 | 57.01 | 4,688,600 |
| RENT3 | 40.35 | -0.47% | +9.32% | 40.54 | 40.66 | 40.25 | 3,360,700 |
| AZZA3 | 18.66 | -1.01% | -48.45% | 18.85 | 18.91 | 18.54 | 1,039,200 |
| CSNA3 | 5.24 | +0.77% | -35.15% | 5.20 | 5.25 | 5.07 | 10,812,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.20 | +3.77% | +46.93% | 23.32 | 24.42 | 23.09 | 15,374,800 |
| ENEV3 | 26.95 | -0.81% | +100.07% | 27.17 | 27.35 | 26.75 | 10,150,700 |
| LREN3 | 14.10 | -1.33% | -23.95% | 14.29 | 14.31 | 13.99 | 10,400,000 |