Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 9, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
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- IPCA inflation release today → key test for Selic path after broad gauge eased in 2025
- Industrial production weakness persists → high rates & trade frictions bite
- Ibovespa awaits IPCA & U.S. payrolls → oil-driven lift yesterday, stretched momentum
- Major U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report → pivotal for Fed outlook, dollar, EM flows
- Broader risk: Payroll surprise could trigger volatility in rates/FX/equities
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\nLatin America’s markets continue the trading week, with Brazil’s B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region’s deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products. Mexico’s Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally.
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Top Story: Broad Inflation Gauge Fell in 2025 – But That’s Only Half the Story
\nBrazil’s broad inflation gauge eased in 2025, reflecting softer food/energy pressures and high Selic anchoring expectations.
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\nHowever, core components remained sticky, services inflation elevated, and fiscal risks kept upside bias alive. Today’s IPCA release is critical — consensus sees MoM 0.35%, YoY 4.30% (down from 4.46%).
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\nAny miss higher could delay rate cuts, pressure real, and weigh on equities. High rates continue to choke industrial activity (see below), exposing trade-off between inflation control and growth.
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Broad inflation gauge eased but core sticky
\nRead more
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Industrial production stalls again due to high rates
\nRead more
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Economic Agenda for January 9, 2026
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Brazil
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- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.35% Prev: 0.18%
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 4.30% Prev: 4.46%
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Mexico
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07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.7%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Cons: -1.2% Prev: -0.4%
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Argentina
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- No major releases today.
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Chile
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- No major releases today.
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Colombia
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- No major releases today.
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United States
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- 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) Cons: 66K Prev: 64K
- 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: 4.5% Prev: 4.6%
- 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.1%
- 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.6% Prev: 3.5%
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) Cons: 53.5 Prev: 52.9
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EU
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- Various industrial/retail data (e.g., German Industrial Production MoM +0.8% Act vs -0.6% Cons, German Trade Balance 13.1B Act vs 16.3B Cons).
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UK
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- No major releases today.
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China
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- No major releases today.
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\nImplication: Today’s IPCA is the main domestic event — softer print supports gradual Selic easing narrative, bolstering real & equities.
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\nU.S. NFP is the global highlight: strong jobs/earnings could reinforce “higher-for-longer” Fed, firm USD, pressure EM currencies & commodities. Softer data would ease dollar, support risk assets including BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 8, 2026)
\nIbovespa +0.59% to 162,936.48 on R$23.4 billion turnover. Oil surge (Brent March +3.39% to $61.99) lifted Petrobras/energy stocks, offsetting Vale weakness (iron ore soft).
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\nBanks recovered modestly. Early Friday mini-futures 163,745–165,080 (~1% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.388. Charts bullish but weekly momentum stretched — surprises in IPCA/NFP could trigger fast moves.
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Ibovespa awaits IPCA and U.S. payrolls after oil lift
\nRead more
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Commodity Markets
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- Gold – Paused near recent highs after new-year surge; spot around $4,480–$4,490/oz this morning, consolidating as traders weigh war risks, Fed bets, index flows.
- Silver – Sudden plunge exposes thin liquidity & leverage; down sharply in recent sessions.
- Copper – Record run meets reality as tariff premium warps global flows; remains elevated but volatile.
- Platinum – [No specific fresh comment; geopolitics/auto demand in focus].
- Palladium – [No specific fresh comment; auto policy sensitivity].
- Aluminium – [No specific fresh comment; inventory/political drivers].
- Iron Ore – Sentiment stayed soft yesterday, limiting Vale gains; Dalian contracts under pressure.
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Gold pauses after new-year surge
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Silver sudden plunge exposes liquidity issues
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Copper record run meets tariff reality
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Currency
\nBrazilian Real → Dollar holds near R$5.39 as payroll & Brazil inflation loom; steady amid mixed global tone.
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Dollar holds near R$5.39 ahead of payrolls & inflation
\nRead more
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Companies and Market
\nBanco Master audit finds 74% of payroll loans lacked proof, exposing major fraud risks → ongoing pressure on banking sector confidence. No other major individual headlines.
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Banco Master audit reveals major payroll loan fraud risks
\nRead more
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 8, 2026)
\nMixed close: Dow rallied ~0.6% on industrials/defense strength, S&P 500 near flat, Nasdaq -0.4% as tech lagged. Small caps outperformed. Cooling after early gains; cautious ahead of NFP.
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\nRegional Peers — Mixed/cautious: Colombia peso firm/Colcap near records pre-payrolls | Mexico peso steady near 18/stocks rally selective | Argentina calm peso masks debt-day strain | Chile record copper lifts markets but strong dollar caps peso.
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Colombia peso firm & Colcap near records
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Mexico peso steady near 18, selective stock rally
\nRead more
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Argentina calm peso masks debt-day strain
\nRead more
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Chile copper record lifts markets, dollar caps peso
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\nNote: Crypto bounce hits speed bump — ETF outflows stall Bitcoin near $90,000; Zcash governance shock spillover adds pressure.
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Crypto bounce stalls near $90k with ETF outflows
Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.36%
176,010.90
-0.36%
66,409.65
-0.18%
10,947.38
-0.70%
3,291,246
+0.00%
2,292.03
-0.29%
57,174.37
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,010.90 | -0.36% | +30.14% | 176,641.10 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.05% | -8.56% | 5.08 | 5.08 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.82 | +0.18% | -9.71% | 5.81 | 5.82 | 5.81 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 84.56 | -0.46% | +23.41% | 84.95 | 85.75 | 83.83 | 11,078 |
| WTI | 79.39 | -0.26% | +19.60% | 79.60 | 80.59 | 78.91 | 39,914 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +66.81% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,029 | -0.36% | +20.19% | 4,044 | 4,072 | 4,026 | 35,747 |
| SILVER | 56.80 | -0.54% | +50.05% | 57.11 | 58.23 | 56.69 | 11,657 |
| LITHIUM | 71.06 | -0.73% | +78.86% | 71.58 | 71.81 | 70.24 | 267,936 |
| SOY | 1,205 | +0.21% | +18.87% | 1,202 | 1,207 | 1,197 | 19,518 |
| CORN | 471.00 | +5.25% | +16.22% | 447.50 | 474.25 | 468.00 | 41,382 |
| WHEAT | 683.00 | +0.81% | +26.19% | 677.50 | 698.25 | 671.50 | 38,902 |
| COFFEE | 317.20 | -5.16% | +0.84% | 334.45 | 323.50 | 316.25 | 3,406 |
| SUGAR | 14.48 | -2.49% | -12.56% | 14.85 | 14.86 | 14.45 | 24,607 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 140.45 | +0.14% | -54.88% | 140.25 | 143.50 | 135.65 | — |
| COTTON | 80.82 | +0.32% | +20.72% | 80.56 | 79.67 | 78.28 | 3,797 |
| BEEF | 226.00 | -2.34% | +0.94% | 231.43 | 232.10 | 229.25 | 20,583 |
| CATTLE | 349.95 | +0.33% | +7.49% | 348.80 | 346.58 | 342.25 | 10,305 |
| COCOA | 5,602 | -2.35% | -32.68% | 5,737 | 6,013 | 5,563 | 4,555 |
| PETR4 | 40.59 | -0.17% | +27.04% | 40.66 | 40.80 | 40.23 | 25,588,900 |
| VALE3 | 74.51 | +0.68% | +38.21% | 74.01 | 75.00 | 73.80 | 15,445,500 |
| SUZB3 | 41.48 | +0.90% | -17.86% | 41.11 | 41.93 | 40.77 | 4,097,000 |
| KLABIN | 17.39 | +0.40% | -7.99% | 17.32 | 17.51 | 17.20 | 3,912,500 |
| SLCE3 | 13.50 | -2.24% | -16.64% | 13.81 | 13.88 | 13.41 | 3,272,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.57 | -1.52% | +17.33% | 15.81 | 15.73 | 15.35 | 31,444,500 |
| ITUB4 | 43.14 | -1.12% | +26.88% | 43.63 | 43.62 | 43.05 | 18,968,600 |
| BBDC4 | 18.60 | -0.16% | +15.53% | 18.63 | 18.68 | 18.48 | 22,309,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.55 | -0.19% | -1.67% | 20.59 | 20.73 | 20.43 | 14,716,900 |
| B3SA3 | 15.69 | +2.35% | +14.28% | 15.33 | 15.85 | 15.42 | 36,695,600 |
| WEGE3 | 44.26 | +0.14% | +11.57% | 44.20 | 44.37 | 43.21 | 7,916,000 |
| PRIO3 | 57.50 | -0.12% | +36.51% | 57.57 | 57.91 | 57.01 | 4,688,600 |
| RENT3 | 40.35 | -0.47% | +9.32% | 40.54 | 40.66 | 40.25 | 3,360,700 |
| AZZA3 | 18.66 | -1.01% | -48.45% | 18.85 | 18.91 | 18.54 | 1,039,200 |
| CSNA3 | 5.24 | +0.77% | -35.15% | 5.20 | 5.25 | 5.07 | 10,812,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.20 | +3.77% | +46.93% | 23.32 | 24.42 | 23.09 | 15,374,800 |
| ENEV3 | 26.95 | -0.81% | +100.07% | 27.17 | 27.35 | 26.75 | 10,150,700 |
| LREN3 | 14.10 | -1.33% | -23.95% | 14.29 | 14.31 | 13.99 | 10,400,000 |