Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Key Facts
- The Copom minutes were released on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 8 a.m. BRT, and they are the main overnight document for Brazilian desks this morning.
- The rate-setting committee cut the Selic benchmark to 13.75% a year at its meeting of 15 and 16 September 2026, a reduction of 0.25 percentage point from 14.00%.
- The central bank’s weekly Focus survey of economists cut its 2026 year-end Selic call to 13.50%, from 13.75%, and nudged its 2026 inflation projection to 4.92% from 4.90%.
- B3 S.A. (B3SA3), the exchange operator, trades ex-interest-on-equity today, for a gross payout of about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04). It is the day’s one confirmed corporate adjustment.
- The Brazilian data calendar is thin, with the central bank’s weekly foreign-exchange flow figures at 2:30 p.m. BRT and flash activity surveys abroad.
- The catch: The quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the FGV consumer survey and the National Monetary Council meeting all fall on Thursday 24 September 2026.
Today’s Focus
The morning call is a Copom story first. The minutes of the 15 and 16 September 2026 meeting reached the market on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 8 a.m. BRT. Desks are still parsing the committee’s language for how much room remains to ease.
At that meeting the committee cut the Selic benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point, to 13.75% a year. It was the fifth straight cut. The minutes stressed caution and elevated risks rather than a promise of more.
The central bank’s weekly Focus survey of economists, published on Monday 21 September 2026, has already moved. Its respondents now see the Selic ending 2026 at 13.50%, down from 13.75%. Their 2026 inflation call rose to 4.92% from 4.90%.
That tension between a lower policy rate and stickier price expectations is what moves the real. It is also what moves the rate-sensitive stocks at the open.
On the corporate side, the exchange operator B3 S.A. (B3SA3) trades ex-interest-on-equity today. The gross payout is about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04). That mechanical adjustment will make the stock look like a decliner on the screen.
The Brazilian calendar is light. The central bank publishes weekly foreign-exchange flow figures at 2:30 p.m. BRT, and the day’s macro weight sits abroad in the flash activity surveys.
The quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the FGV consumer survey and the National Monetary Council meeting all fall on Thursday 24 September 2026. None of them lands today, so the minutes keep the floor.
What matters today. The question is whether the minutes leave the door open for another cut in November. If they do not, the real could firm and rate-sensitive stocks could wobble.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 187,422.92 | +0.44% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,764.64 | 0.00% |
| Nasdaq Composite (US) | 27,244.28 | +0.45% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (US) | 51,863.69 | -0.36% |
| USD/BRL (PTAX selling rate) | 5.1161 | +0.09% |
Trade date: Tuesday 22 September 2026. Closing levels from B3 for the Ibovespa, from the United States exchanges for the three New York benchmarks, and from the Banco Central do Brasil PTAX for the exchange rate.
01 The setup in one read
Brazil’s market opens this Wednesday with its attention turned homeward. The minutes of the meeting that cut the Selic rate to 13.75% are the main overnight document. Early trade will be an exercise in reading between the lines.
The central bank’s Focus survey of economists did some of that work already. Its respondents lowered the year-end Selic projection to 13.50% from 13.75%, while lifting the 2026 inflation call to 4.92%. That mix keeps a single further quarter-point cut in play and leaves little room for error.
On the corporate ledger, the exchange operator B3 S.A. trades ex-interest-on-equity today. The gross payout is about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04). Figures here are converted at the Banco Central do Brasil PTAX closing quote for Tuesday 22 September 2026, a rate of 5.1161 to the US dollar.
The Brazilian data calendar offers little support. Weekly foreign-exchange flow figures arrive at 2:30 p.m. BRT, and the flash activity surveys in Europe and the United States carry the morning. Neither should rival the minutes as the day’s main driver.
The available evidence points to a session driven by domestic monetary-policy interpretation, not by Wall Street. The overnight United States tape was mixed. The Nasdaq Composite closed 0.45% higher at a record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.36%, and the S&P 500 finished all but unchanged.
The Focus shift is the cleanest signal. The market has moved to pricing roughly one more quarter-point Selic cut, and the minutes must either validate that or force a repricing. Thursday’s Monetary Policy Report and consumer survey will then reinforce or challenge the doves.
The variable to watch is the opening move in USD/BRL. If the real firms on a dovish reading of the minutes, the bias in equities should hold. If the real weakens, the session turns defensive.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa futures | Cash index 187,422.92 | — | Opens around the cash close; the minutes set the tone |
| USD/BRL | PTAX 5.1161 | — | Direction depends on the minutes; the rate sits just above 5.10 |
| B3SA3 (cash) | Tuesday’s close | Ex-payout | Opens adjusted by about R$0.227 (about US$0.04); do not read as weakness |
| VALE3 | Tuesday’s close | — | Iron ore and Chinese demand; no Brazil-specific catalyst |
| PETR4 | Tuesday’s close | — | Oil and politics; United States crude stocks land at 11:30 a.m. BRT |
The board settled the Ibovespa at 187,422.92 on Tuesday 22 September 2026, a gain of 0.44%. Turnover reached about R$22.5 billion (about US$4.4 billion), above the 50-day average of about R$18.5 billion (about US$3.6 billion).
The single clearest opening adjustment is B3SA3, which trades ex-interest-on-equity for a gross R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04). A lower print at the open on that name is mechanical, not a signal about the exchange operator’s fundamentals. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
187,422.92
+0.44%
+21.85%
186,595.60
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
IRON ORE
161.91
—
+58.10%
161.91
161.91
1
GOLD
4,461
+1.78%
+33.20%
4,383
4,503
4,421
139,824
SILVER
65.59
+1.26%
+73.05%
64.77
66.98
64.81
46,406
LITHIUM
75.20
+1.47%
+62.95%
74.11
75.80
75.08
89,275
SOY
1,184
+3.20%
+17.05%
1,148
1,199
1,168
163,179
CORN
480.50
+10.02%
+29.34%
436.75
480.75
459.50
341,248
WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%
+29.70%
630.25
657.75
631.50
128,793
COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%
+0.67%
335.75
321.20
313.55
21,747
SUGAR
16.43
-1.79%
-3.01%
16.73
17.11
16.22
171,992
ORANGE JUICE
138.55
-0.47%
-45.38%
139.20
141.05
137.50
703
COTTON
85.03
+2.33%
+26.78%
83.09
82.90
81.96
16,546
BEEF
223.60
-3.93%
-5.18%
232.75
226.40
223.00
16,126
CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%
-1.82%
350.17
345.50
338.60
10,164
COCOA
5,719
+3.18%
-34.96%
5,543
5,779
5,574
26,773
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
KLABIN
17.69
+0.80%
-2.95%
17.55
17.74
17.48
2,057,400
SLCE3
13.34
+0.30%
-12.25%
13.30
13.42
13.20
1,454,200
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
LREN3
11.87
-1.33%
-28.65%
12.03
12.17
11.83
9,683,300
03 On the B3 radar today — Copom minutes and the ex-payout
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Euro area flash activity surveys | 5 a.m. BRT | First read on September output in a large export market for Brazil |
| United States flash activity surveys | 10:45 a.m. BRT | The growth signal that usually sets New York’s tone before Brazil’s afternoon |
| United States crude oil inventories | 11:30 a.m. BRT | Moves the oil price, and Petrobras with it |
| Weekly foreign-exchange flow | 2:30 p.m. BRT | Capital-flow reading that can move USD/BRL positioning late in the day |
| B3 S.A. ex-interest-on-equity | Open | Gross payout of about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04); mechanical price adjustment |
The two flash survey rounds are the macro core of the day. The euro area numbers arrive before Brazil opens, and the United States set lands mid-morning in São Paulo.
B3’s ex-payout date is today’s only confirmed Brazilian corporate calendar event. The exchange operator’s gross distribution of about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04) will show up as a lower open in the stock.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Copom minutes released on Tuesday 22 September 2026 are the main macro input for today’s open. The committee cut the Selic by 0.25 percentage point, to 13.75%, at its meeting of 15 and 16 September 2026. The market’s job now is to judge whether the easing cycle continues in November.
The central bank’s Focus survey shows that economists have already moved. They now see the Selic ending 2026 at 13.50%, down from 13.75% a week earlier. They raised their 2026 inflation projection to 4.92% from 4.90%.
That combination is fragile. The market is pricing about one more quarter-point cut. The higher inflation forecast means the committee may need to slow or pause if price pressures linger.
The Monetary Policy Report on Thursday 24 September 2026 will be read through that lens. If the central bank’s own projections show inflation converging only slowly, the case for another cut weakens.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
B3 S.A. (B3SA3) is the only Brazilian listed company with a confirmed event today. The exchange operator trades ex-interest-on-equity for a gross distribution of about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04). The payment itself is due on 7 October 2026.
No other B3-listed company has been reported with an earnings release, ex-payout date or major corporate action for today’s session. That leaves heavyweights such as Petrobras and Vale to commodity prices and the broader macro tone.
Petrobras has the clearest external trigger. United States crude oil inventories land at 11:30 a.m. BRT. Brent crude fell 1.9% to US$98.46 a barrel on Tuesday 22 September 2026, slipping back below US$100.
Any news from Brasília on fiscal policy could still move the banks and the real. No fiscal event is on today’s official calendar, so the focus stays on the minutes.
06 The levels to watch at the open
The board’s settled figures are the reference for the opening levels. The Ibovespa closed at 187,422.92 on Tuesday 22 September 2026, near its session high of 187,671.74 and above its session low of 184,976.81.
The real’s rate is the key market-level indicator. The PTAX closing quote of 5.1161 sits just above the round 5.10 mark. A move back below it after the minutes would read as a constructive signal for equities.
For B3SA3, the adjustment of about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04) is the specific amount to strip out before judging the stock. A print near the previous close minus that amount is neutral, while anything better suggests real demand for the exchange operator.
On the downside, watch whether the index can hold its gains without fresh foreign buying. With the New York tape mixed overnight, the early auction in São Paulo will have to do its own work.
07 What to watch
- Copom minutes language: Any hint on the pace or duration of the easing cycle will move rate-sensitive stocks and the real
- United States crude oil inventories at 11:30 a.m. BRT: The reading feeds straight into Petrobras and the oil-linked names
- B3SA3 ex-payout: The mechanical adjustment is known; the question is whether buyers step in below the adjusted price
- Weekly foreign-exchange flow at 2:30 p.m. BRT: A capital-flow reading that can move USD/BRL positioning late in the session
- Thursday 24 September 2026: The Monetary Policy Report, the FGV consumer survey and the National Monetary Council meeting all land then, not today
Background: Namibia Social Security Commission Benefits Rise From 1 October 2026.
Background: Angola Single-Use Plastics Ban Takes Effect After One-Year Grace Period.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic rate, and why does it matter today?
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, now 13.75% a year after a cut of 0.25 percentage point. The minutes explaining that decision were released on Tuesday 22 September 2026 and are the main input for today’s market.
What does the Focus survey say about interest rates?
The central bank’s weekly survey of economists lowered its 2026 year-end Selic projection to 13.50% from 13.75%. It also raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.92% from 4.90%, implying roughly one further quarter-point cut.
Why is B3SA3 on the radar today?
B3 S.A., the exchange operator, trades ex-interest-on-equity for a gross distribution of about R$0.227 a share (about US$0.04). The opening price will be mechanically lower, and that is not a sign of weakness.
What is on the Brazilian calendar today, and what is not?
Today brings the central bank’s weekly foreign-exchange flow figures at 2:30 p.m. BRT. The Monetary Policy Report, the FGV consumer survey and the National Monetary Council meeting all fall on Thursday 24 September 2026.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.