New CNT/MDA Poll Puts Lula at 42% and Ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazil · Politics
Key Facts
- Poll lead The CNT/MDA poll (Aug 5–9, 2026, 2,002 interviews, MoE 2.2pp) shows Lula at 42.4% vs Flávio Bolsonaro’s 28.7% in the first round.
- Runoff edge In a two-person runoff, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 48.0% to 39.1%, with 10.6% blank/null and 2.3% undecided.
- Other names Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) takes 4.0%, Romeu Zema (Novo) 3.3%, Renan Santos (Missão) 2.8%, Samara Martins (UP) 1.6%, Augusto Cury (Avante) 1.2%, and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) 0.9%.
- Undecided bloc The poll records 6.8% blank/null and 7.2% undecided, a combined 14% that could shift the race.
- Different poll A separate Gerp survey shows a technical tie at 38% each in the first round, with Flávio ahead 45% to 43% in a runoff.
- Trend note CNT/MDA’s own June wave put Lula’s runoff lead wider, at 49.3% to Flávio’s 36.8% in the same scenario.
Brazil’s 2026 race is tightening, but the CNT/MDA poll still gives Lula a double-digit first-round edge and a single-digit runoff cushion over Flávio Bolsonaro.
If you’re following Brazil from abroad — or have money parked in its markets — the CNT/MDA poll is the closest thing to a reality check on the 2026 election. It shows Lula leading the first round with 42.4% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 28.7%, and a runoff at 48.0% to 39.1%. That’s not a blowout, but it’s a lead. The catch? Another poll, from Gerp, says the race is a technical tie at 38% each in the first round, with Flávio actually ahead in a runoff. Two credible surveys, two different stories. Here’s what the numbers mean, who else is in the mix, and why the gap between the polls matters more than the headlines.
The CNT/MDA Poll: What It Actually Says
The CNT/MDA poll, commissioned by the Confederação Nacional do Transporte, is a heavyweight. It ran 2,002 in-person interviews from August 5 to 9, 2026, with a 95% confidence level and a 2.2 percentage-point margin of error. It’s registered with Brazil’s electoral court under number BR-06935/2026. This is the 169th round from CNT/MDA, which gives it a track record you can compare against previous waves.
The first-round stimulated numbers put Lula (PT) at 42.4%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28.7%, and then a long tail. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) is at 4.0%, Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3.3%, Renan Santos (Missão) at 2.8%, Samara Martins (UP) at 1.6%, Augusto Cury (Avante) at 1.2%, and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) at 0.9%. Another 0.9% pick “other,” 6.8% say blank or null, and 7.2% are undecided. Add the blank/null and undecided together, and you have roughly 14% of the electorate still up for grabs.
The Runoff Scenarios and the Trend
In a hypothetical second round, Lula beats Flávio Bolsonaro 48.0% to 39.1%, with 10.6% blank/null and 2.3% undecided. That’s an 8.9-point gap. The gap has narrowed from CNT/MDA’s June wave, when Lula led 49.3% to 36.8% in the same runoff scenario. So Lula’s support is essentially flat, while Flávio has gained ground. The CNT/MDA poll also tested Lula against Caiado, Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury in second-round simulations, and Lula wins all of those, though the exact numbers aren’t in the available excerpts.
What’s worth watching is the trajectory, not just the snapshot. Flávio is closing the gap, even if he’s still behind. The runoff numbers suggest that if the race comes down to two names, Lula starts with a real advantage, but it’s not insurmountable. A 8.9-point lead in August can shrink fast, especially with 14% of voters still undecided or planning to cast a blank ballot.
The Gerp Divergence: Why Two Polls Disagree
The Gerp poll tells a different story. It shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 38% each in the first round, and Flávio ahead in a runoff, 45% to 43%. That’s a technical tie in the first round, given the margin of error, and a flip in the runoff. These two polls are not measuring the same thing in the same way. Different methodologies, different sampling frames, and different question wording can produce divergent results, especially when a chunk of the electorate is still undecided.
So which one do you trust? CNT/MDA uses in-person interviews, which tend to have higher response rates and better coverage of rural and lower-income voters. Gerp may rely on different weighting or a different voter model. The honest answer is that both can be “right” within their own margins, and the truth is probably somewhere in between. For investors and expats, the takeaway is not to overreact to a single poll. Look at the range: Lula leads by anywhere from a tie to 14 points, depending on the survey. That’s a wide band, and it means the race is more fluid than either headline suggests.
Why This Race Matters Beyond Brazil’s Borders
If you live in Latin America or have money invested here, this election is not a distant story. Brazil is the region’s largest economy, and its political direction sets the tone for everything from interest rates to trade policy to environmental enforcement. A Lula victory likely means continuity on fiscal spending and social programs, while a Flávio Bolsonaro win would signal a sharp shift toward conservative economics and a more confrontational relationship with the judiciary and the press. The runoff gap matters because it tells you how much room the next president has to govern. A narrow win means gridlock; a commanding lead means a mandate.
For expats, the practical stakes are simpler: the exchange rate, inflation, and the cost of living in São Paulo or Rio all swing on election outcomes. Markets hate uncertainty, and a tight race with diverging polls is exactly the kind of uncertainty that moves the real. The CNT/MDA poll suggests Lula is in control, but the Gerp tie is a reminder that nothing is settled. Watch the next waves, especially the undecided vote. That 14% is where the election will be won or lost.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the 2026 Brazilian presidential race?
According to the CNT/MDA poll, Lula leads the first round with 42.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 28.7%. In a runoff, Lula leads 48.0% to 39.1%. A separate Gerp poll shows a technical tie at 38% each in the first round, with Flávio ahead in a runoff.
What is the margin of error in the CNT/MDA poll?
The CNT/MDA poll has a 2.2 percentage-point margin of error, with a 95% confidence level. It conducted 2,002 in-person interviews from August 5 to 9, 2026, and is registered with Brazil’s electoral court under number BR-06935/2026.
Why do the CNT/MDA and Gerp polls show different results?
The two polls use different methodologies, sampling frames, and weighting models. CNT/MDA uses in-person interviews, which may capture different voter segments than Gerp’s approach. The divergence is common when a significant share of voters are undecided or leaning toward blank/null ballots.
Connected Coverage
Sources: CNT/MDA (Confederação Nacional do Transporte); Gerp; Gazeta do Povo; Poder360.
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