Global Economy Briefing — February 13, 2026
Read about Global Economy Briefing — February 13, 2026 on The Rio Times.
Today’s global economy briefing for February 13, 2026 covers a triple blow to risk sentiment: UK Q4 GDP limped in at 0.1%, US existing home sales cratered 8.4% to a two-year low, and AI disruption fears hammered the S&P 500 by 1.6%. Meanwhile, India unveiled a revamped CPI basket showing inflation at 2.75%, and China’s housing slump deepened with prices down 3.1% year-on-year. Here’s what moved markets on Thursday.
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The Big Three
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\nUK Q4 GDP grew just 0.1%, missing the 0.2% consensus. Business investment collapsed −2.7% quarter-on-quarter, industrial production fell −0.9% month-on-month, and the services sector flatlined — Britain is treading water heading into 2026.
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\nUS existing home sales plunged 8.4% to 3.91M annualized — the sharpest monthly drop in nearly four years — as NAR’s chief economist declared “a new housing crisis.” Treasuries rallied on the data, with the 10-year falling to 4.10%.
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\nAI disruption fears ripped through equities. The Dow shed 669 points (−1.34%), the S&P 500 dropped 1.57% to 6,833, and the Nasdaq lost 2.03%. Cisco plunged 12% on weak guidance, Apple fell 5%, and defensive names like Walmart (+3.8%) outperformed.
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Dashboard: Key Prints vs Expectations
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| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Prior | Verdict |
| GDP (QoQ) Q4 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | MISS |
| GDP (YoY) Q4 | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.2% | MISS |
| Business Investment (QoQ) Q4 | −2.7% | +0.4% | +1.6% | MISS |
| Industrial Production (MoM) Dec | −0.9% | −0.1% | +1.3% | MISS |
| Manufacturing (MoM) Dec | −0.5% | −0.2% | +1.9% | MISS |
| Index of Services Q4 | 0.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% | MISS |
| Trade Balance Dec | −£22.72B | −£22.30B | −£23.58B | NEUTRAL |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 227K | 222K | 232K | NEUTRAL |
| Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,862K | 1,850K | 1,841K | SOFT |
| Existing Home Sales (Jan) | 3.91M | 4.16M | 4.27M | MISS |
| 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.750% | — | 4.825% | STRONG |
| CPI (YoY) Jan | 2.75% | 2.40% | 1.33% | NEW BASE |
| 3-Year BTP Auction | 2.36% | — | 2.48% | BULLISH |
| House Prices (YoY) Jan | −3.1% | — | −2.7% | WORSE |
| Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | HOLD |
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United States
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Housing crisis meets AI anxiety
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The housing market dominated the data. Existing home sales cratered 8.4% to a 3.91M annualized rate, the sharpest monthly drop since February 2022 and the slowest pace in over two years. NAR’s Lawrence Yun blamed winter weather, but the math is structural: inventory remains at just 3.7 months’ supply while median prices hit a record January high of $396,800.
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As a result, Treasuries rallied hard. The 10-year yield fell over 8 basis points to 4.098%, and the 30-year dropped to 4.733%. Thursday’s 30-year bond auction cleared at 4.750%, well below the prior 4.825%, signaling strong demand for duration amid the risk-off mood.
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Meanwhile, AI disruption fears cascaded through equities. Cisco tumbled 12% after issuing weak margin guidance, Apple sank 5%, and software stocks broadly declined on fears that AI could cannibalize traditional business models. The Dow shed 669 points, breaking its streak of record closes above 50,000.
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On the labour front, initial jobless claims fell to 227K from 232K, though continuing claims edged up to 1,862K. Markets are now pricing in the first Fed rate cut for July rather than June, with approximately 50 basis points of total easing expected by year-end. All eyes turn to Friday’s CPI report.
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Key Facts
— Bearish. The housing miss compounds the post-NFP rate-repricing. If Friday’s CPI comes in hot, the June cut narrative is dead and the S&P’s flirtation with 7,000 becomes a distant memory.
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Europe
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Britain stumbles, ECB talks scale
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The UK economy barely kept its head above water in Q4 2025. GDP grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing the 0.2% consensus and matching Q3’s tepid pace. Annual growth decelerated to 1.0% from 1.2%, with real GDP per capita now falling for two consecutive quarters. For the full year, the economy expanded 1.3%, up from 1.1% in 2024.
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The breakdown was universally weak. Business investment plunged 2.7% quarter-on-quarter — a massive swing from the +0.4% expected — as firms froze spending ahead of budget uncertainty. Industrial production fell 0.9% in December, manufacturing dropped 0.5%, and construction output declined 2.1% on the quarter, its worst reading in four years.
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However, the services sector flatlined at 0.0% growth, propping up the headline only because manufacturing provided a modest quarterly offset. The NIESR monthly GDP tracker for January came in at +0.3%, suggesting some early-2026 recovery, but confidence indices remain subdued with the PCSI at 49.0.
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In the eurozone, ECB Board member Schnabel gave a major speech in Vienna arguing Europe’s weakness is about insufficient scale, not lack of talent. She proposed a “28th regime” to give firms seamless access to the entire EU market. Furthermore, Italy’s BTP auctions cleared lower — the 3-year at 2.36% versus 2.48% previously — reflecting continued demand for European sovereign debt.
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Key Facts
— Bearish UK, neutral eurozone. The investment collapse (-2.7%) is the headline number: firms are withholding capital in a pre-budget fog. BoE rate cut pressure intensifies; the ECB holds steady at 2.00% with the next hike not expected until 2027-2028.
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Asia-Pacific
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India rebases, China sinks deeper
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India unveiled a rebased CPI with 2024 as the new base year, expanding the basket to 358 items from 299 and reducing the food weight from 42.6% to 36.8%. The first print under the new methodology showed January inflation at 2.75%, above the 2.40% consensus but well within the RBI’s 2-6% target band. The previous series is not directly comparable.
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Consequently, the RBI’s rate pause looks well-supported. Core inflation printed at a muted 3.4%, and food inflation was just 2.13%. The modernized basket now includes digital services like OTT subscriptions, making it more representative of contemporary spending patterns. Analysts see rates on hold through mid-year.
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In China, the property slump deepened further. New home prices fell 3.1% year-on-year in January, accelerating from the 2.7% decline in December — the steepest drop in seven months. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.4%, matching December’s pace. S&P Global now forecasts primary sales will drop 10-14% this year, far worse than the 5-8% decline predicted in October.
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In addition, Japan saw foreign bond buying flip sharply negative at −¥365.7B after a prior +¥713.7B, suggesting Japanese institutions are repatriating capital amid global rate uncertainty. Korean export prices surged 7.8% year-on-year in January, signaling improving terms of trade for semiconductor-heavy exporters.
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Key Facts
— Mixed. India’s CPI rebase is a statistical event, not a policy trigger — rates stay on hold. China’s housing data is unambiguously worse, and S&P’s downgrade of the property outlook reinforces the “vicious cycle” narrative. The yen repatriation signal warrants close watching.
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Latin America
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Peru holds, Brazil services cool
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Peru’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 4.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting, exactly as expected by all 14 analysts surveyed. The BCRP faces a comfortable macro backdrop: headline inflation near 1.5%, the sol hovering at a six-year high, and GDP growing above potential. The extended hold signals the easing cycle has definitively paused.
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In Brazil, the services sector contracted 0.4% month-on-month in December, a modest deterioration from the flat November reading. Nevertheless, year-on-year services growth accelerated to 3.4% from 2.7%, indicating the sector remains resilient despite the monthly dip.
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On the other hand, South African manufacturing production fell 1.4% year-on-year in December, improving slightly from the −2.0% prior but still firmly in contraction territory. Mining production surprised positively at +2.5%, and gold output returned to growth at +1.1% after a −6.0% reading previously. The rand region remains bifurcated between commodity tailwinds and factory-floor weakness.
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Key Facts
— Neutral. Peru is the EM anchor — strong currency, sub-target inflation, rates on hold. Brazil’s monthly services dip looks weather-related. South Africa’s mining rebound partially offsets the manufacturing drag.
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Trades & Tilts
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Related: Latin American Pulse | Brazil Morning Call
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