Global Economy Briefing: January 12, 2026

Key Points

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• Europe’s risk mood improved and funding costs eased slightly, but Germany’s external surplus stayed modest.

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• U.S. rates stayed anchored: short bills were mixed, and 3- and 10-year auctions cleared near prior levels.

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• Asia was light on hard prints: India’s CPI rose to 1.33% y/y; Japan was on holiday; Australia and the UK had sentiment reads due.

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United States

\nRates were the story. Three-month bills rose to 3.609% from 3.540%, while six-month bills edged to 3.490% from 3.475%.
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\nThe 3-year note priced at 3.609% versus 3.614% prior. The 10-year printed 4.173% versus 4.175%. Several Fed speakers (Bostic, Barkin, Williams) kept policy expectations steady.
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\nThe labor dashboard had no fresh number in the dataset; the prior CB Employment Trends Index was 105.80.
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\nRead-through: no stress in funding, no new inflation impulse, and a stable curve.
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Europe and UK

\nSentix improved sharply to −1.8 from −6.2, beating expectations (−5.1). That points to better investor mood into Q1.
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\nGermany’s current account stayed positive at €15.1B (from €14.8B), reinforcing the external cushion, even as growth remains thin. Short funding eased: Germany’s 12-month Bubill came at 2.004% (from 2.029%).
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\nFrance’s bills also edged lower (12-month 2.098%; 3-month 2.026%), while the 6-month ticked slightly higher to 2.068%. ECB speakers stayed in the foreground, keeping rates on a patient track.
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Asia-Pacific

\nIndia’s CPI rose to 1.33% y/y from 0.71%, still low by global standards but moving up. Japan was closed for Coming of Age Day; scheduled current-account and lending figures were due later.
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\nAustralia’s Westpac confidence was also due; last reading was −9.0%. Korea’s export and import price indexes were on the calendar without updated values here.
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\nNet: Asia remained stable, with inflation still contained.
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Latin America

\nBrazil’s Focus survey ran, but figures were not included in this dataset. Colombia was closed for Epiphany Day. No new regional hard prints were provided.
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What it means

\nTwo forces dominated. First, Europe’s investor mood improved, reducing recession fear and supporting the euro’s floor.
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\nSecond, U.S. rates stayed steady, which keeps global funding costs predictable. India’s CPI rise is a reminder that disinflation is not a straight line, but the level remains low enough to avoid policy panic.
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\nPractical tilt: keep quality duration; prefer service-led exposure over deep cyclicals; stay selective in Europe until hard activity confirms the sentiment shift; watch India inflation and Japan’s external surplus for Asia’s next signal.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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