Global Economy Briefing: January 26, 2026

Key Points

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• U.S. manufacturing signals improved: durable goods jumped and Dallas Fed neared zero, while GDPNow stayed high.

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• Europe stayed cautious but stable: Germany’s Ifo was flat, Spain’s producer prices fell further, and French bill yields were steady.

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• Latin America flashed a warning: Brazil’s FDI turned sharply negative even as the current account improved.

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United States

\nThe data said “goods rebound, not boom.” Headline durable goods rose 5.3% m/m, well above expectations, with core durables up 0.5% and non-defense ex-air up 0.7%.
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\nThe defence-excluding series rose 6.6% m/m. The Chicago Fed activity index improved to −0.04 from −0.24, close to neutral. Dallas Fed manufacturing rose to −1.2 from −11.3, suggesting the worst of the regional slump may be past.
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\nGDPNow held at 5.4% for Q4. Funding stayed orderly: 3-month bills 3.580% and 6-month 3.525%. The 2-year note cleared at 3.580%, higher than the prior 3.499%, a reminder that the front end is still tight.
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Europe and UK

\nGermany’s Ifo climate held at 87.6, with expectations a touch lower (89.5) and current assessment a touch higher (85.7). That is a “flat but not failing” signal.
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\nSpain’s producer prices fell further, −3.0% y/y, reinforcing disinflation through imported and traded goods. French short bills were steady (12-month 2.084%, 6-month 2.045%, 3-month 2.021%), showing stable funding demand.
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\nThe UK’s shop-price inflation rose to 1.5% y/y, above 0.7% prior, a reminder that price pressure can reappear in consumer-facing categories even when wholesale inflation is soft.
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Asia-Pacific

\nJapan’s coincident indicator fell again (−1.0% m/m) and the leading index rose only 0.1% m/m, signalling a soft present with a weak forward glide path.
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\nServices inflation eased slightly (CSPI 2.6% y/y). Korea’s consumer confidence rose to 73.0 from 70.0, an incremental improvement. China’s industrial profits improved to 0.6% YTD, up from 0.1%, a small positive for the industrial cycle.
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Latin America

\nMexico’s labor market remained tight: unemployment was 2.60% (2.40% n.s.a.). Brazil’s external accounts were the headline. The current-account deficit narrowed to −$3.36B, but FDI swung to −$5.25B from +$9.82B.
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\nThat is a major deterioration in the quality of external financing, and it can raise risk premia quickly if it persists. The Focus survey ran on schedule without numbers in this dataset.
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Australia

\nAustralia Day limited attention, but the NAB survey improved: confidence 3 and conditions 9, both higher than prior readings. It is a small positive in a thin-liquidity session.
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What it means

\nThe global picture stayed two-speed. The U.S. is stabilizing in goods, which supports global trade without forcing a policy pivot. Europe is disinflating but still cautious, with Germany steady and Spain exporting lower producer prices.
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\nAsia is mixed: China profits improved, Japan remains soft, and Korea’s confidence is edging up. The main risk is Brazil’s sudden negative FDI print.
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\nIf that reflects a one-off, markets will look through it. If it signals broader capital hesitation, it can tighten financial conditions across Latin America.
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\nTilt: keep quality duration; favor U.S. industrials selectively and Europe exporters; treat Brazil exposure as flow-sensitive and watch the next capital-account prints closely.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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