Global Economy Briefing: January 29, 2026

Key Points

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• The Fed and Bank of Canada held rates, while Australia’s core inflation stayed sticky.

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• U.S. energy data eased inflation risk, but housing demand cooled as mortgage rates rose.

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• Brazil’s outflows narrowed, Europe’s confidence improved slightly, and India’s industry stayed strong.

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United States

\nThe Fed held at 3.75%. Housing cooled at the margin. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.24% and applications fell 8.5%. The purchase index was nearly flat at 193.3, but refis fell to 1,332.2 from 1,580.8. Energy eased.
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\nCrude inventories fell 2.295M barrels and gasoline inventories rose only 0.223M after a large prior build. Cushing fell 0.278M and imports dropped 1.706M.
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\nRefinery utilization fell 2.4%, so the draw was partly flow-driven. Distillates rose 0.329M. Net: inflation pressure from energy is lower, but rates still bite housing.
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Canada

\nThe BoC held at 2.25% and published its Monetary Policy Report. The message stayed patient. Markets focused on guidance rather than a shift in direction.
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Europe and UK

\nGermany’s GfK improved to −24.1 from −26.9, a small lift in household mood. Italy’s business confidence rose to 89.2 and consumer confidence edged up to 96.8.
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\nSpain’s producer prices fell 3.0% y/y, reinforcing goods disinflation. Bund yields nudged higher at auction (10-year 2.850%). ECB speakers remained in the spotlight, keeping the policy stance steady.
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Asia-Pacific

\nAustralia’s CPI slowed on the quarter (0.6% q/q), but core stayed firm. Trimmed mean was 0.9% q/q and 3.4% y/y. Weighted measures were also elevated. That argues for an RBA that stays cautious on cuts.
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\nIndia’s industrial output rose 7.8% y/y and year-to-date production reached 3.9%, with manufacturing still strong. Japan’s flows turned positive: foreigners bought 177.6B of bonds and 328.1B of equities, a risk-on signal.
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Latin America and Africa

\nBrazil held Selic at 15.00%. FX flows were still negative at −$0.638B, but improved from −$1.696B. That reduces near-term pressure, but does not remove the flow risk. No new Mexico or Chile prints were in this dataset.
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What it means

\nThis was a “steady policy, mixed demand” day. The Fed and BoC can wait because inflation is easing, but not quickly. Energy data help by lowering near-term inflation fear.
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\nAustralia’s sticky core CPI argues against a fast pivot. Europe’s mood is improving slowly, but financing costs remain a constraint. Brazil’s smaller outflows reduce stress, but markets will still watch capital flows closely.
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\nTilt: keep quality duration; favor U.S. services over housing-sensitive names; stay selective in Europe; prefer EM exposure where flows are stable and inflation is trending down.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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