Global Economy Briefing: January 30, 2026

Key Points

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• U.S. trade weakened and gas storage drew hard, but factory orders jumped and unit labor costs stayed negative.

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• Europe’s confidence improved and credit growth held, while Italy’s bond yields stayed stable.

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• Brazil’s inflation and credit accelerated, but jobs swung deeply negative, raising a growth warning.

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United States

\nThe day was “strong production, softer external demand.” The November trade deficit widened to $56.8B as exports fell to $292.1B and imports rose to $348.9B. Claims stayed low: initial 209K and continuing 1.827M, with the 4-week average 206.25K.
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\nProductivity remained strong at 4.9% q/q and unit labor costs stayed negative at −1.9% q/q, a clear disinflation signal. Factory orders jumped 2.7% m/m, with ex-transport at 0.2%, and durable goods ex-defense rose 6.5% m/m.
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\nWholesale inventories rose 0.2%, while wholesale sales jumped 1.3%, a healthier demand mix than earlier prints. Natural gas drew 242B, far larger than the prior 120B.
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\nThe 7-year auction cleared at 4.018% and bills held near 3.63%. GDPNow dropped to 4.2% from 5.4%. Net: domestic activity is firm, but trade and energy are the pressure points.
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Europe and UK

\nEurozone money and credit were steady. M3 growth was 2.8% y/y and the stock rose to 17,230.7B. Private-sector loans grew 3.0% y/y and loans to firms were 3.0%.
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\nConfidence improved: the Business and Consumer Survey rose to 99.4 and consumer confidence held at −12.4, with inflation expectations easing to 24.1 and selling-price expectations down to 10.0.
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\nServices sentiment improved to 7.2 and industrial sentiment improved to −6.8. Italy’s non-EU trade surplus widened to €8.39B and its 10-year and 5-year auctions held at 3.44% and 2.74%.
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\nFrance jobseekers fell to 3,117.4K. Spain’s retail slowed to 2.9% y/y, but business confidence improved to −3.0. Net: Europe’s demand is not booming, but confidence and credit are improving.
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Canada

\nEarnings rose 2.45% y/y. Trade weakened: exports fell to 63.94B and the deficit widened to −2.20B. That is a mild headwind for growth.
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Asia-Pacific

\nJapan’s inflation cooled again. CPI fell to 1.4% y/y and Tokyo core to 2.0% y/y, with Tokyo CPI down to 1.5% y/y and a negative core-ex-food-and-energy monthly print.
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\nUnemployment held 2.6% and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 1.19. Industrial production fell only −0.1% m/m and the one-month-ahead forecast jumped to 9.3%, though the two-month-ahead forecast was negative.
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\nRetail sales fell −0.9% y/y and large retailers’ sales fell −2.0% m/m. Korea improved late in the day: industrial production beat at −0.3% y/y and 1.7% m/m, retail rose 0.9% m/m, and services rose 1.1% m/m.
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\nAustralia’s Q4 price indexes firmed: export prices rose 3.2% q/q and import prices rose 0.9% q/q, a terms-of-trade tailwind but not disinflation.
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Latin America and Africa

\nBrazil posted a higher IGP-M inflation print (0.41% m/m) and faster credit growth (bank lending 1.8% m/m). The labor market swung sharply negative: CAGED showed −618.16K net jobs in December after +85.86K, a clear slowdown signal.
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\nChile held rates at 4.50% and unemployment fell to 8.0%. South Africa’s PPI held 2.9% y/y with 0.2% m/m, and the central bank held at 6.75%.
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What it means

\nThe U.S. remains a soft-landing economy, but the widening trade deficit and big gas draw are the pressure points. Europe looks better on confidence and credit, which matters for exporters and banks.
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\nJapan is cooling cleanly, which supports global disinflation. Brazil is the outlier: faster credit and inflation with a sharp job loss is not a comfortable mix.
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\nTilt: keep quality duration; favor Europe where confidence and lending are improving; stay selective in U.S. cyclicals until trade stabilizes; in LATAM, prefer Mexico and Chile over Brazil until flows and jobs stabilize.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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