Gold Jumps 1.9% as Nasdaq Falls 1.1% | Global Economy, Nov 3
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Tech sells off while gold surges. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164, while gold rose 1.87% to US$3,948/oz. The VIX jumped 8.91% to 21.15, so nerves are rising.
- A 10-year yield near 5% frames the Fed debate. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.909%, but borrowing costs remain heavy for growth shares. ADP jobs and ISM services data on Wednesday will test the mood.
- Brazil waits for Copom. The Selic stands at 13.75%, and the central bank decides on Wednesday evening. Forecasts differ, and a softer dollar gives the real some breathing room.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,541 (-0.51%) | n/a | Tech weighs |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164 (-1.07%) | n/a | Weakest of the three |
| US 10-year yield | 4.909% | n/a | Easing, still high |
| EIA gasoline stocks (week to 23 Oct) | 209.2m barrels (+3.9m) | n/a | Build signals soft demand |
| ADP employment (Wed, forecast) | 65,000 expected | 90,000 | Slowdown expected |
| ISM services PMI (Wed, forecast) | 54.8 expected | 54.9 | Steady expansion |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year Bund auction (Wed) | Due | 3.8 | Long-end demand test |
| 15-year Bund auction (Wed) | Due | 3.5 | Long-end demand test |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.805 (-0.07%) | n/a | Mild relief for the euro |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 52 | 52.1 | Beat 51.6 consensus |
| Japan manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.3 | 54.1 | In line, but slower |
| Peru inflation, month on month (Oct) | 0.57% | 0.12% | Upside surprise |
| Brazil manufacturing PMI (today, forecast) | 43 expected | 44.8 | Deeper contraction feared |
| Mexico manufacturing PMI (today, forecast) | 50.1 expected | 50.3 | Near stagnation |
| Brazil Selic decision (Wed) | 13.75% consensus | 13.75% | Open call |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,541 | -0.51% |
| USD/BRL | 5.4375 | -0.02% |
Source: market close, 2 November 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Tuesday, November 3, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | US | Midterm Elections | — | — |
| 00:00 | JP | Culture Day | — | — |
| 10:30 | DE | 5-Year Bobl Auction | — | 3.22 |
| 11:00 | US | LMI Logistics Managers Index | — | 70.2 |
| 11:30 | BR | BCB Focus Market Readout | — | — |
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 48.2 | 48 |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 43 | 44.8 |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook | — | 9.3 |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.13 | 7.079 |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.2 | 46.8 |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.3 |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.05 | 3.066 |
| 15:00 | CO | Davivienda Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 54.6 |
| 17:00 | DE | Bundesbank Nagel Speech | — | — |
| 19:00 | MX | Fiscal Balance | — | -737.3 |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 15.9 | 16 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,722 | +0.59% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,646 | +1.27% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 52,367 | +0.01% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,814 | +0.97% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.9950 | +0.18% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 17.75 | -3.48% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 25,591 | +0.71% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,687 | -0.75% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 7,887 | +0.51% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 643.68 | +0.47% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 63,268 | +1.73% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 23,041 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,638 | +3.09% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,050 | -1.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 22,750 | +0.66% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,123 | +0.50% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,073 | +0.85% | +1.32% | 4,038 | 4,079 | 4,002 | 117,083 |
| SILVER | 54.49 | +0.70% | +17.02% | 54.11 | 54.64 | 52.71 | 34,428 |
01 Tech Takes the Hit, Gold Takes the Crown
Wall Street split in two. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% to 51,984, while the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.07% to 25,164.
That pattern suggests investors are trimming growth shares rather than leaving equities altogether. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 8.91% to 21.15, which signals unease without panic.
The slide is part of a longer retreat. The S&P 500 is 3.5% below its 6 October high, the best close in a year, and the Nasdaq is 8.8% below its peak of the same day, with 3.8% lost in the last five sessions.
Oil added to the nerves: the US Oil Fund (USO), which tracks crude futures, fell 7.1% to US$156.87 on Monday.
Gold stole the show, gaining 1.87% to US$3,948/oz. A lower Treasury yield and a slightly softer dollar make it cheaper to hold a metal that pays no interest.
Even so, gold remains about 28% below its late-January peak near US$5,500, so the jump is a rebound, not yet a new trend.
02 A Yield Near 5% Keeps the Fed in Focus
The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped 0.51% to 4.909%, and the dollar index eased 0.07% to 101.805. Even after that move, borrowing costs sit close to 5%, which weighs on expensive technology shares.
A week ago, on 28 October, the yield stood at 5.045% and the dollar index at 102.194, so both have eased since.
What it means for you: US investors holding tech-heavy index funds have felt the 8.8% drop most, while in Latin America a softer dollar and a lower US yield ease pressure on the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso. A move back above 5% in the 10-year yield would test that relief, so Wednesday’s data and the Treasury refunding are the next checkpoints.
Wednesday brings data that could move the number. ADP private payrolls are forecast at 65,000 against 90,000 before, and the ISM services prices gauge is expected at 75 against 74.
The ISM services headline index is forecast at 54.8 against 54.9, which would mean steady expansion. The Treasury’s refunding announcement the same day will show how much debt Washington plans to sell, and that matters when yields are this high.
03 Asia Holds Up While Brazil Waits for Copom
China’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI came in at 52 for October, beating the 51.6 consensus though just under September’s 52.1 (a reading above 50 means growth). Japan’s matched forecasts at 53.3, down from 54.1.
For Brazil, the central bank’s Copom decision arrives on Wednesday evening, with the Selic at 13.75%. The economic calendar lists a consensus of 13.75%, unchanged, while some market pricing points to a quarter-point cut to 13.50%, so the outcome is genuinely open.
Brazil’s manufacturing PMI is due today, forecast at 43 against 44.8, which would show factories shrinking faster. Mexico’s is expected at 50.1 against 50.3, so Latin America’s two largest economies both face a weak industrial backdrop.
Peru’s monthly inflation for October came in at 0.57% against a consensus of zero and 0.12% before. That upside surprise is a reminder that price pressures remain uneven across the region.
Official US data on energy stocks add a quieter signal (the US Energy Information Administration’s weekly report). Commercial crude inventories stood at 410.6 million barrels in the week to 23 October, down 1.9 million, while gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million to 209.2 million.
What to watch today and this week
- Tuesday: Manufacturing PMIs for Brazil (forecast 43) and Mexico (forecast 50.1), plus Colombia’s Davivienda PMI (forecast 54.2).
- Wednesday: ADP jobs, ISM services, the US Treasury refunding announcement, and Brazil’s Copom decision in the evening.
- Thursday: How Brazilian rates, the real and the Selic path react to Copom’s statement.
- Ongoing: The 10-year yield near 4.9%, gold at US$3,948/oz and the VIX at 21.15 set the tone for risk appetite.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold surge while US stocks fell?
Gold rose 1.87% to US$3,948/oz as the Treasury yield and dollar index both eased. Nervous investors also sought safety, with the VIX up 8.91% to 21.15.
Why did the Dow rise when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell?
The Dow gained 0.41% to 51,984 while the Nasdaq lost 1.07%. That suggests selling concentrated in technology and growth shares rather than across the whole market.
What is the US 10-year Treasury yield now?
It stands at 4.909%, down 0.51% on the day. That is close to 5%, which keeps pressure on equity valuations.
When does Brazil’s central bank decide on the Selic?
Copom announces its decision on Wednesday 4 November in the evening, Lisbon time. The Selic is currently 13.75%, and forecasts for the decision differ.
What does this mean for Latin America?
A softer dollar and lower US yields help the real and other regional currencies. Weak manufacturing data in Brazil and Mexico, however, show the domestic economies are cooling.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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