Global Economy Briefing — September 12, 2026
Global economy: Wall Street snapped a losing streak as oil and volatility fell and the US 10-year hovered near 5%, sharpening Fed and Brazil Selic bets
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Wall Street breaks its losing streak The Dow rose 0.98% to 52,573, the S&P 500 0.86% to 7,657 and the Nasdaq 0.96% to 26,333 on Friday, snapping a four-session slide as inflation came in broadly in line and oil retreated.
- Rates hover near 5% as Fed hike bets firm The US 10-year Treasury yield traded at 4.974%, its highest level since it briefly topped 5% in October 2023, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate increase next week and keeping pressure on EM currencies including the Brazilian real.
- Oil and volatility cool, giving EM some breathing room The VIX dropped 11.21% to 15.84, signalling a calmer backdrop that, for now, supports carry trades and risk appetite in Brazil and across Latin America.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| August CPI, headline YoY | 3.4% | 3.2% | In line but above target, supports one more Fed hike |
| S&P 500 Friday close | 7,657 | 7,591.70 | Rebound after four-day slide |
| US 10-year yield | 4.974% | ≈4.95% | Testing 5%, tightening conditions for EM |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | ≈US$104.6 | ≈US$107.6 | Fell nearly 2.8%, easing inflation pressure |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil 10-year local bond | ≈14.3% | ≈14.7% | Yields easing, supports 25bp Selic cut |
| Brazilian real vs USD | ≈5.08 | ≈5.15 | Modest firming on softer inflation and high carry |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,657 | +0.86% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 187,207 | -0.56% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1264 | +0.40% |
Global economy — Source: RT close, 2026-09-11. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Saturday, September 12, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | BR | BRICS Summit | — | — |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Relief rally on Wall Street, Latin eyes the carry
US shares staged a broad relief rally on Friday as August inflation came in close to expectations and a sharp pullback in oil prices cooled immediate stagflation fears. The move broke a four-session losing streak but left the S&P about 0.8% lower for the week, a reminder that risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of next week’s Fed decision.
The volatility backdrop softened materially, with the VIX sliding to 15.84, while WTI settled near US$100 and Brent around US$104.6 after falling more than 2% on the day. For Latin American assets, including Brazilian shares and credit, calmer oil and still-elevated US yields favour high-carry names but keep a ceiling on valuation multiples.
In FX, the dollar index was broadly flat to slightly higher around 99.095 as the 10-year note hovered just below 5%. Within EM, the Brazilian real slipped to 5.1264 per US dollar on Friday, a 0.40% depreciation, though double-digit local yields keep Brazil’s carry appeal intact despite the global rates headwind.
02 Fed’s near-5% signal and the Brazil Selic read-through
US data and market pricing now point to a Federal Reserve that is likely to deliver at least one more rate increase, with the August CPI print near 3.4% year-on-year and the 10-year yield testing 4.974%. Futures curves have shifted to embed a higher terminal rate and a longer plateau, tightening global financial conditions even before any formal move next week.
For Latin America, and Brazil in particular, a near-5% US long rate complicates the easing path. Brazil’s 10-year local bond yield has slipped to about 14.3% on softer-than-expected inflation, and markets still anticipate a 25 basis-point Selic cut at the upcoming Copom meeting.
But the stronger dollar and higher US term premium argue for a cautious cutting cycle. That keeps the real attractive to carry-trade investors yet limits room for aggressive domestic easing without destabilising the currency.
03 Global tightening backdrop and the Latin margin for error
The week’s pattern – softer oil, still-firm inflation, and a US yield curve pressing toward 5% – defines a world where central banks must stay restrictive for longer. Latin American policymakers have more room than developed peers because their earlier hiking cycles crushed inflation sooner.
Brazil’s Selic remains in double digits and real yields are among the highest in emerging markets. That cushion draws foreign capital into local bonds and shares, but it also means any global risk shock is transmitted directly through the currency channel.
With the BRICS Summit in Brazil on Saturday, investors will watch for any signals on trade finance, reserve diversification or commodities coordination that could shift the region’s external accounts. For now, the tone is calmer: the VIX has fallen sharply and oil has retreated, giving Latin risk assets a window to perform.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: US Federal Reserve rate decision – markets price a high probability of one more 25bp hike
- Friday: US preliminary September PMIs; initial jobless claims will refine growth expectations
- Next week: Brazil Copom meeting – consensus sees a 25bp Selic cut to 12.00% amid softer inflation
- Ongoing: BRICS Summit in Brazil, September 12 – watch for trade finance and reserve currency signals
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Wall Street rebound on Friday?
August CPI came in broadly in line at 3.4% year-on-year and oil prices fell sharply, easing stagflation fears and snapping a four-session losing streak.
What does the near-5% US 10-year yield mean for Brazil?
It tightens global financial conditions and argues for a cautious Selic cutting cycle, even though Brazil’s own disinflation and high carry keep the real attractive.
Is the Federal Reserve expected to hike again?
Yes. Market pricing now embeds at least one more Fed rate increase next week, with a higher terminal rate and a longer plateau than previously expected.
What is the outlook for the Brazilian real?
The real has firmed to around 5.08 per US dollar, supported by softer local inflation and double-digit local yields, but the strong dollar limits further gains.
Why is the VIX falling while Treasury yields are near 5%?
Oil’s retreat and in-line inflation reduced the near-term stagflation tail risk, calming volatility even as tight monetary policy remains a headwind.
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