Global Economy Briefing — September 8, 2026
Markets now price a Federal Reserve rate rise after August payrolls beat forecasts. The ECB decides Thursday, China exports jumped 25% and Brent topped
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Markets have flipped from cuts to hikes Friday’s US jobs report showed 162,000 new posts against expectations near 56,000, with June and July revised up by a combined 55,000, and futures now put the odds of a rate rise at the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting at roughly 60%.
- Three central banks are tightening at once The European Central Bank decides on Thursday and is expected to lift its main rate to 2.50%, the Bank of Japan is priced for 1.25% by the end of the quarter, and the Federal Reserve is a coin flip, a combination that squeezes the cheap funding behind emerging-market carry trades.
- Commodities are running on supply, not demand Brent crude topped US$98 a barrel after United States forces struck three Iranian tankers, copper set an all-time high of US$14,540 a tonne in London, and iron ore climbed back above US$100, all of which helps Latin American exporters just as their cost of capital rises.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| August nonfarm payrolls | +162,000 | +21,000 (July, revised) | Almost three times the 56,000 forecast |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | Steady, no slack opening up |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.1% | US$37.75, +0.3% m/m | Too warm for a quick return to target |
| Fed funds target range | 3.50–3.75% | held five meetings | About 60% odds of a hike on September 16 |
| US 2Y / 10Y yields | 4.37% / 4.78% | September 4 close | No Monday print, markets shut for Labour Day |
| Retail diesel, national average | US$5.90/gal | 2022 record | All-time high as crude climbs |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX 600 | ≈649.9 (flat) | — | Europe went nowhere with New York shut |
| DAX / CAC 40 | -0.2% / +0.1% | — | Narrow, directionless Monday |
| ECB main refinancing rate | 2.40% | 2.15% before June | First hike in three years came in June |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.25% | held in July | Decision Thursday, 2.50% expected |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China August exports (y/y) | +25% | — | Cars and high technology led; imports missed |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.7% | — | Firmer yen on Bank of Japan tightening bets |
| Shanghai / Hang Seng | +0.3% / +0.8% | — | Asia was the one region that rose |
| Bank of Japan policy rate | 1.00% | held 8-1 on July 31 | Market prices 1.25% by quarter end |
| Selic policy rate (Brazil) | 14.00% | 14.50% (April) | Still among the highest real rates anywhere |
| Iron ore, 62% Fe | above US$100/t | ≈US$95 in August | Highest since mid-July |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,565.37 | +0.82% |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,451.80 | -0.01% |
| S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico) | 64,727.54 | -0.21% |
| Merval (Argentina) | 3,034,599 | -0.50% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | closed | Independence Day |
| S&P 500 (US) | closed | Labour Day |
Global economy — Source: RT close, 2026-09-07. New York and São Paulo did not trade.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Tuesday, September 8, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | JP | Economy Watchers Current Index (Aug) | 46.3 | 45.7 (act. 46.4) |
| 02:00 | DE | Trade Balance (Jul) | 16.0B | 15.4B (act. 21.3B) |
| 02:00 | DE | Exports (m/m, Jul) | 0.0% | 0.9% (act. -0.8%) |
| 02:45 | FR | Trade Balance (Jul) | -6.0B | -5.8B (act. -6.7B) |
| 05:00 | ZA | GDP (y/y, Q2) | — | 1.9% |
| 06:00 | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) | 99.4 | 99.8 |
| 07:00 | CL | CPI (m/m, Aug) | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | BR | IGP-DI Inflation Index (m/m, Aug) | — | -0.86% |
| 07:25 | BR | BCB Focus Market Readout | — | — |
| 08:15 | US | ADP Employment Change, weekly | — | 11.80K |
| 09:00 | BR | Auto Production (m/m, Aug) | — | 3.1% |
| 09:15 | UK | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 11:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations (Aug) | — | 3.6% |
| 13:00 | US | 3-Year Note Auction | — | 4.291% |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Credit (Jul) | 11.90B | 14.17B |
| 15:00 | AR | Industrial Production (y/y, Jul) | — | 2.0% |
| 17:00 | CL | Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 21:30 | CN | CPI (y/y, Aug) | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 21:30 | CN | PPI (y/y, Aug) | 3.6% | 3.5% |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 A jobs report that changed the direction of travel
The August employment report landed on Friday and reset the debate. Payrolls rose 162,000 against a consensus near 56,000, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
Revisions did as much work as the headline. June was lifted from 20,000 to 31,000, and July from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month to US$37.75, and 3.1% over the year. That pace is not consistent with inflation returning quickly to target.
Markets responded by pricing a rise rather than a cut. UBS moved to forecasting two quarter-point increases this year, in September and December. The shift began in late August, after Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole.
02 Three central banks moving the same way
The European Central Bank meets on Thursday. Its main refinancing rate is 2.40% and the deposit rate 2.25%, after a quarter-point rise in June that was its first in three years.
The bank held in July and said the pause should not be read as the end of tightening. Markets expect a move to 2.50% this week.
The Bank of Japan holds at 1.0% after an eight to one vote on July 31, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of 1.25%. The next decision is on September 18, and yen strength on those expectations is what pushed the dollar index down 0.32% on Monday.
China supplied the week’s upside surprise. August exports rose about 25% from a year earlier on cars and high-technology goods, though imports fell short of forecasts.
03 Latin America’s squeeze: strong commodities, dearer capital
Most of the region did not trade on Monday. Brazil was closed for Independence Day and Wall Street was shut, leaving thin books everywhere else.
Colombia was the standout, with the COLCAP rising 0.82% to a record 2,565.37 and the peso firming to about 3,119 per dollar. Mexico slipped 0.21%, dragged by a 12.7% fall in Televisa after its removal from the index was flagged.
Chile closed flat at 11,451.80 even as copper set a record, because second-quarter output fell 0.2% and July mining production was down 9.3%. Argentina lost 0.50% in a session without foreign flow.
The regional problem is the rate outlook rather than the commodity outlook. Record copper and near-record oil help exporters, but a hiking Federal Reserve raises the cost of the capital that funds them.
What to watch today and this week
- Tuesday: China’s August trade data, Chile’s rate decision with a hold at 4.50% expected, and Mexico’s 2027 budget package reaching Congress
- Wednesday: China consumer and producer prices, with consensus at 0.9% and 3.2%, and Mexico’s full August inflation reading
- Thursday: the European Central Bank decision, United States producer prices, jobless claims, weekly crude inventories, China credit data and Argentina’s August inflation print
- Friday: the United States August consumer price report at 8:30 in New York, the last major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve meets on September 16
- Ongoing: the Gulf tanker war, Iran’s talks with Oman over Hormuz shipping, and expected United States tariffs on refined copper imports
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are markets pricing a Federal Reserve rate rise?
August payrolls came in at 162,000 against expectations near 56,000, with earlier months revised up. Wage growth of 3.1% over the year points the same way.
What does a hiking Federal Reserve mean for Latin America?
It raises the cost of dollar funding and makes United States assets more competitive. That pressures regional currencies even when commodity prices are strong.
Why did gold fall while a war widened?
Gold pays no income, so higher real yields make it less attractive. This week rate expectations outweighed safe-haven demand.
Why was Latin America so quiet on Monday?
Wall Street was closed for Labour Day and Brazil for Independence Day. Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Argentina traded, but without their usual foreign flow.
What is the most important release this week?
Friday’s United States consumer price report for August. It is the last major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve meets on September 16.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.