MEXICO · WEATHER
Key Facts
- The country Mexico is the United States’ southern neighbour, and its Pacific coast holds the ports and beach resorts of Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta and Zihuatanejo.
- What happened Hurricane Trudy became a Category 3 major hurricane early on Friday 16 October, with sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h).
- The warnings A hurricane watch covers the coast from north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, and a tropical storm warning runs south to Zihuatanejo.
- The forecast The storm is forecast to peak near 145 mph (about 230 km/h) on Saturday and to pass close to the coast that night.
- The rain Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco could see 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain, with isolated totals near 12 inches (300 mm).
- For US travellers Large swells and rip currents are expected from Friday, and tropical storm conditions could reach the coast early on Saturday.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Hurricane Trudy became a Category 3 major hurricane off Mexico’s Pacific coast early on Friday 16 October, with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami expects it near Mexico’s southwestern coast on Saturday, a stretch popular with American visitors.
The NHC has put part of that coast under a hurricane watch and another part under a tropical storm warning. Trudy grew from a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday to a major hurricane in about a day.
What the Hurricane Center Reported
At midnight Mexico Central time on Friday (2 a.m. ET), the eye of Hurricane Trudy sat about 260 miles (420 km) southwest of Acapulco. It was also about 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of the port of Manzanillo, according to the NHC.
The storm had a central pressure of 957 millibars and was moving north-west at 6 mph (9 km/h). Hurricane-force winds reached out 25 miles (35 km) from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds reached out 105 miles (165 km).
Watches and Warnings Along the Coast
The NHC has a hurricane watch in effect for the coast north of Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán state, to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible there, and it is usually issued about 48 hours before storm-force winds arrive.
A tropical storm warning covers the coast from Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo, in Guerrero state. The NHC said additional watches or warnings will likely be needed later on Friday.
El Financiero, citing Mexico’s national water commission Conagua, described the Mexican hurricane watch as running from Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula in Jalisco. It put the tropical-storm precaution zone between Punta San Telmo and Zihuatanejo.
Where Hurricane Trudy Is Heading
On its forecast track, Hurricane Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, the NHC said. Most forecast models keep the centre just offshore, though the US GFS model brings it inland.
The NHC forecasts a peak of about 145 mph (230 km/h), a Category 4 storm, on Saturday. By Saturday evening Mexico time it expects about 130 mph (210 km/h), and by Sunday evening about 100 mph (160 km/h).
Wind shear, changes inside the eye wall and contact with land should then weaken the storm. Forecasters said a track farther out to sea would keep Trudy stronger, while a track over land would weaken it quickly.
Rain, Surf and Storm Surge
The NHC expects 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain along the coast of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through the weekend. Isolated totals could reach about 12 inches (300 mm), which may cause life-threatening floods and mudslides on steep ground.
Guerrero could see 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated totals near 6 inches (150 mm), according to the NHC. Storm surge is possible where winds blow onshore, along with large and destructive waves.
Swells from Trudy will reach parts of the coast from Friday and last through the weekend. The NHC warned that they are likely to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents.
What Mexican Forecasters Say
Fabián Vázquez Romaña, who coordinates Mexico’s weather service (SMN), said on Thursday that Trudy could reach Category 3 or 4 from Friday. He said it would approach the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, according to El Financiero.
The SMN does not expect Trudy to make landfall, and it expects the storm to weaken to a tropical storm near the coast. Excélsior quoted the service as saying Sunday would be the storm’s closest point to the coast, at Playa Pérula in Jalisco.
What It Means for You
US visitors to the coast between Zihuatanejo and Puerto Vallarta should expect heavy rain, rough seas and possible travel disruption this weekend. They should follow their airline, hotel and local civil protection authorities, and stay out of the water while rip-current warnings last.
For US readers with ties to the region, the storm is a test of Mexico’s preparations along a busy stretch of Pacific coast. The Rio Times covered Trudy earlier as a Category 1 hurricane and as a storm threatening Acapulco.
What Is Not Known
It is not yet known whether the centre of Hurricane Trudy will move over land or stay just offshore. The answer decides how strong the winds are at the coast and how much damage they cause.
The NHC calls its strength forecast highly sensitive to the exact track, so the winds at the coast could differ from the forecast peak. Tropical Storm Simon, farther north, is expected to become a remnant low within about a day and has no coastal watches.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How strong is Hurricane Trudy?
Hurricane Trudy had winds of 120 mph (195 km/h) at midnight Mexico time on Friday, which makes it a Category 3 major hurricane. The NHC expects it to strengthen further on Friday and Saturday.
Will Hurricane Trudy hit Mexico?
The NHC says the centre will approach the southwestern and west-central coast on Saturday and Saturday night. Mexico’s weather service expects the storm to stay offshore, but wind, rain and surf will still reach the coast.
Which parts of Mexico are under a hurricane watch?
A hurricane watch covers the coast north of Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán, to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco. A tropical storm warning runs from Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo.
Is Puerto Vallarta in danger from Hurricane Trudy?
Puerto Vallarta lies just north of the watch area at Cabo Corrientes, and the NHC said more watches may be needed. Visitors should follow local guidance and watch for swells and heavy rain.
Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory 11A, 16 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion 11, 15 October 2026; El Financiero, Conagua and SMN statements, 15 October 2026; El Financiero, SMN news conference, 15 October 2026; Excélsior, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief