Ipespe Poll Has Flávio 51.2%, Lula 48.8%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 11:10 a.m. ET · Source: Ipespe/Abrapel poll (TSE registration BR-00223/2026)
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Saturday 17 October, the Ipespe polling institute and the research-firm association Abrapel published a new runoff survey with a narrow lead for Flávio.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.2% of valid votes and Lula 48.8%, a 2.4-point gap against a 2.6-point margin of error.
- The change The previous Ipespe survey, released on 10 October, had Flávio at 52.7% and Lula at 47.3%, so the gap has narrowed from 5.4 points.
- Fieldwork Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters nationwide on 13 to 15 October, under electoral court registration BR-00223/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (17 October, 11:04 a.m. ET). Kalshi "Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?": Exactly 5 cuts 70%, Exactly 6 cuts 23% (28 October, 11:37 am ET); prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Ipespe published only valid-vote shares in the coverage we reviewed, so the raw totals including blank and undecided voters are not yet known.
A new Brazil election 2026 survey from the Ipespe institute puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 51.2% of valid votes against 48.8% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. The poll was published on Saturday 17 October and the 2.4-point gap sits inside its 2.6-point margin of error.
The runoff on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls page lists every survey, and the Brazil election odds page tracks what bettors expect.
What the Ipespe Runoff Poll Found
Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters across Brazil from 13 to 15 October, with a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points at a 95.45% confidence level, O Antagonista reported. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) under number BR-00223/2026, and Abrapel is the association of Brazilian research firms that appears alongside Ipespe on the release.
The 51.2% to 48.8% split counts only valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots, according to Transmissão Política. Both candidates are rejected by 47% of voters, O Antagonista said.
How the Race Moved Since 10 October
The previous Ipespe survey, released on 10 October, had Flávio ahead by 52.7% to 47.3% of valid votes, Transmissão Política reported. The lead has therefore shrunk from 5.4 points to 2.4 points in a week.
Each candidate moved by 1.5 points in valid votes, with Flávio down and Lula up, according to O Antagonista. That keeps Flávio numerically ahead, but the new gap is smaller than the margin of error.
Why a 2.4-Point Gap Is a Technical Tie
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2.6-point margin of error, this survey cannot say which candidate is truly ahead, as Times Brasil noted.
Brazilian results are reported as valid votes, so pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court will announce. Polls measure opinion on the days of the interviews and do not forecast the result.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. Comparing several pollsters, as our Brazil election polls tracker does, gives a steadier picture than any single survey.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 2.4-point lead inside the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 11:04 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185.3 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists runoff contracts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · Brazil
What traders bet on now: implied probabilities from the prices of current Brazil markets.
Kalshi | Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 5 cuts 70% · Exactly 6 cuts 23% · 7 or more cuts 10% (US$181,133 traded)
Polymarket | Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?
December 31 75.5% (US$35,284 traded)
Polymarket | Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by Brazilian authorities by October 31?
Yes 9.1% (US$24,785 traded)
As of 28 October, 11:37 am ET, updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The coverage we reviewed gives only valid-vote shares, so the raw totals and the share of blank and undecided voters are not confirmed here. O Antagonista says Ipespe paid for the survey itself.
We will add them if Ipespe publishes the full tables.
It is not known how many undecided and swing voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. The next round of surveys before the vote will show whether the narrowing continues.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Ipespe?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.2% of valid votes against 48.8% for Lula, published on Saturday 17 October. The 2.4-point gap is inside the 2.6-point margin of error.
What is the margin of error?
The Ipespe survey of 1,500 voters has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points at a 95.45% confidence level. That makes the result a technical tie.
How did the poll change from the previous Ipespe survey?
The 10 October survey had Flávio at 52.7% and Lula at 47.3% of valid votes. The gap has narrowed from 5.4 to 2.4 points.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, eight days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
When were voters interviewed?
Ipespe interviewed voters nationwide on 13 to 15 October 2026. The survey is registered with the electoral court under number BR-00223/2026.
Sources: O Antagonista, 17 October 2026; Times Brasil, 17 October 2026; Transmissão Política, 17 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 17 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.