LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide for Thursday, October 8, 2026
LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide — Thursday, October 8, 2026
00The LatAm Expat Nomad Daily Guide Status Board
| Story | Yesterday | Now | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil presidency | Wed 7 Oct: 18 days to the runoff | Runoff Sun 25 Oct, 17 days away | Campaign continues |
| Brazil PTAX (sell) | Tue 6 Oct: 4.9698 | Wed 7 Oct: 4.9935 | Real slightly weaker |
| Peru reference rate | 4.25%, decision due | 4.25%, held on Wed 7 Oct | Unchanged |
| Lima mayor | About 92.7% counted | López Aliaga 27.703%, Allison 26.841% (about 92.7% counted) | Close; court review pending |
| Mexico FIX | Mon 5 Oct: 18.1343 | Tue 6 Oct: 17.9670 | Peso firmer |
| Colombia TRM | Wed 7 Oct: 3,216.01 | Thu 8 Oct: 3,238.88 | Peso weaker |
| Chile observado | Wed 7 Oct: 967.79 | Thu 8 Oct: 979.85 | Peso weaker |
| Argentina country risk | Tue 6 Oct: 573 | Wed 7 Oct: 586 | Risk premium slightly higher |
01Getting Around
Mexico’s Pacific coast: Tropical Storm Simon. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported at 9 p.m. Mexico central time on Wednesday 7 October that Simon had winds near 50 mph (85 km/h). Its centre was about 265 miles (425 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, and the NHC expected it to strengthen rapidly. Mexican and US forecasters expect it to become a hurricane. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect then, and the NHC said watches would probably be needed for parts of the south-west coast later.
The NHC expected the centre to stay south of Mexico through Friday and to approach the south-west coast on Saturday. The SMN, as reported by Infobae, sees Saturday 10 and Sunday 11 October as the period of greatest interest, near Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flooding in parts of south-west Mexico. We could not read bulletins issued after Wednesday night, and the track can still shift. If you have a flight or hotel booked on the coast of Colima, Jalisco or Nayarit this weekend, check the NHC and SMN advisories and ask your airline or hotel about changes.
Brazil: loud weeks, normal days. Campaigning continues until the runoff on Sunday 25 October. Foreign residents do not vote, and no visa or residency rule changes because of the election.
Peru: a slow count. The electoral office (ONPE) has processed all tally sheets for Lima’s mayor, but about 7.3% of tally sheets went to a special election jury for review, according to ONPE figures reported by Infobae. Lima has no runoff, so first place wins. The electoral jury must also rule on whether Rafael López Aliaga can take the post, because Peru bars immediate re-election of mayors and he ran as first councillor on his list, according to Infobae.
02Cost of Living & Money
Each measure is labelled, and dates differ by country. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are Tuesday’s or Wednesday’s figures; Chile and Colombia are today’s official rates.
Brazil. The PTAX fixing was 4.9935 reais to sell on Wednesday 7 October, against 4.9698 on Tuesday and 5.2238 on Friday 2 October. At 4.9935, R$1,000 is about US$200.
Mexico. Banxico determined the FIX at 17.9670 pesos per dollar on Tuesday 6 October, and the official gazette (DOF) printed that value on Wednesday. Wednesday’s own FIX appears in the DOF today, and we have not confirmed it. At 17.9670, MXN 10,000 is about US$557.
Chile. The observado is 979.85 pesos for Thursday, against 967.79 for Wednesday. At 979.85, CLP 1,000,000 is about US$1,021. The UF (Chile’s inflation-indexed unit used in rents and mortgages) is 41,122.74 pesos, about US$42.
Colombia. The TRM (the official representative rate) is 3,238.88 pesos per dollar for Thursday 8 October only. It was 3,216.01 on Wednesday. At 3,238.88, COP 1,000,000 is about US$309.
Argentina. DolarApi shows the official Banco Nación rate at 1,490 to buy and 1,540 to sell (Wednesday evening). The blue (informal market rate) is 1,535 and 1,555, and the CCL (contado con liquidación, a rate for dollars bought through securities) is 1,608.1 and 1,609.9, both early Thursday. ARS 1,000,000 is about US$649 at the official sell rate and US$643 at the blue sell rate. The gap between official and blue is about 1%. ArgentinaDatos puts country risk at 586 points on Wednesday 7 October.
Peru. We could not obtain SUNAT’s (the tax authority’s) rate for Wednesday or Thursday. A market estimate from open.er-api.com, updated at midnight UTC on Thursday, shows 3.443 soles per dollar, and banks quote their own rates. At 3.443, PEN 1,000 is about US$290.
The wider picture. The Brazilian real firmed most this week, and the Mexican peso is also stronger than last Friday. The Chilean and Colombian pesos weakened on Thursday. One week does not set a trend, and currencies often overshoot after political news and then settle.
03Visas, Residency & Tax
Colombia: 23 days left. Foreigners holding a permanent-resident visa issued under earlier rules must transfer it by Saturday 31 October 2026, the Foreign Ministry reiterated on 15 September. The process is online; the ministry advises using its official site without intermediaries. Our earlier explainer sets out who is affected.
Colombia: prices and rent. DANE reported 6.29% inflation over 12 months for September, up from 6.24% in August. The central bank’s policy rate is 12.25%, and its next meeting is Friday 30 October. For tenants, Colombian law lets a landlord raise a home rent once every 12 months by up to the previous calendar year’s inflation, which was 5.10% for 2025.
04What Prediction Markets Say
Brazil’s presidency. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 84.0% and Lula at 15.5% to win (US$175.48 million traded). Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), prices Bolsonaro at 83.0% and Lula at 17.0% (about 4.8 million contracts traded). Stand: 8 October, 00:32 ET.
Lima’s mayor. Polymarket prices Rafael López Aliaga at 92.5% and Francis Allison at 3.1% (US$501,690 traded). Stand: 8 October, 00:32 ET.
Colombia’s central bank in October. Polymarket prices no change at 45.5%, a 0.25-point rise at 38.0% and a rise of 0.5 points or more at 12.5% (US$33,741 traded). Stand: 8 October, 00:40 ET.
Argentina’s September inflation. Polymarket prices a monthly rate of 1.9% to 2.1% at 64.0% and 1.6% to 1.8% at 30.0% (US$28,340 traded). Stand: 8 October, 00:33 ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05The Calendar Ahead
Dates come from official calendars and the EODHD economic calendar; consensus figures are forecasts, not ours. The region does not move as one block, and each release can push a currency either way.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Tropical Storm Simon expected to go?
The US National Hurricane Center expected the centre to approach Mexico’s south-west coast on Saturday 10 October 2026, after strengthening quickly. The Mexican weather service sees the greatest interest on Saturday and Sunday near Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco. The track can still change, so check the latest advisories.
Did Peru’s central bank change its interest rate?
No. On Wednesday 7 October 2026 the BCRP kept its reference rate at 4.25%, as it has for more than a year. Inflation in Lima was about 4.5% over 12 months in September, above the bank’s 1% to 3% target range, and the next meeting is on Thursday 12 November.
What is the deadline to transfer an older Colombian permanent-resident visa?
Saturday 31 October 2026. Colombia’s Foreign Ministry reiterated on 15 September that foreigners holding a permanent-resident visa issued under earlier rules must transfer it by that date. The process is online, and from Thursday 8 October 23 days remain.
Connected Coverage
- Colombia Rent Increase Limit Is 5.10% in 2026
- Brazil September Inflation Due Friday Near 4.5% Ceiling
- Peru Rate Decision 7 Oct With Lima Inflation at 4.55%
- Storm Simón May Near Puerto Vallarta
- López Aliaga List Leads Lima Mayor Count by 0.86 Points
- Colombia Resident Visa Transfer: Old Residente Holders Have Until October 31, 2026
- Colombia hub · Brazil hub · Peru hub · Mexico hub
Sources: US National Hurricane Center (Tropical Storm Simon, Advisory 3, 7 October 2026); Servicio Meteorológico Nacional as reported by Infobae; Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (rate decision of 7 October 2026) as reported by Infobae, La República and El Comercio; DANE (Colombia, September inflation) as reported by Infobae and El País Cali; Banco de la República (Colombia rate); Cancillería de Colombia (visa-transfer notice of 15 September 2026); Banco Central do Brasil (PTAX, Olinda API); Infobae, RPP and Altavoz citing ONPE and the JNE (Lima count); Banxico (FIX series; DOF); Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia via datos.gov.co (TRM); Banco Central de Chile via mindicador.cl (observado, UF); DolarApi and ArgentinaDatos (Argentina rates and country risk); open.er-api.com (Peru market estimate); INE, INEGI, IBGE and INDEC calendars; CartaCapital (Datafolha schedule); EODHD economic calendar; Polymarket and Kalshi (prediction markets, 8 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief