LatAm Pre-Open — Friday, September 4, 2026

Latin American markets — Source: RT close, 2026-09-03. Figures rendered directly from the feed.

01 The overnight tape in one read

Asia and Europe are trading against a softer US dollar after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rates could stay put if inflation continues to cool. That trimmed expectations of imminent Fed tightening and pushed the yen and Asian currencies higher.

Equity futures are idling. S&P 500 futures were little changed in Asian hours, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat, suggesting a pause after Wall Street’s prior session gains of more than one per cent.

The standout move is in metals. Gold rose 2.16 per cent to $4,480 an ounce and silver gained 2.48 per cent to just under $67, a powerful bid that should colour the Latin open.

The US jobs report lands at 12:30 on Friday. Economists expect US hiring data (known as the non-farm payrolls report, which counts jobs added outside farming) to show a rebound of 56,000 jobs, after a drop of 23,000 the previous month, with unemployment holding at 4.1 per cent.

02 The board before the open

The board shows Brazil caught only a sliver of the dollar’s broad decline. The real firmed slightly to 5.1050 against the dollar, a much smaller move than the dollar index’s 0.69 per cent drop.

Mexico’s peso, Chile’s peso and Colombia’s peso all strengthened more than Brazil’s real. That gap is the regional question mark, and Friday’s trade balance data may help explain why.

03 What the data shows — commodities dominate turnover

The B3 scan shows commodity names absorbing the heaviest flows, with Vale alone moving more than R$2.5 billion (about US$490 million). Vale’s 2.9 per cent decline is striking against a global metals rally, suggesting profit-taking or concerns about iron ore specifically rather than a broader commodity unwind.

The money remains in the large liquid names: Petrobras, Itaú and Bradesco dominate turnover. A 35.5 per cent surge in Azevedo & Travassos (AZEV3) on thin R$20 million (about US$3.9 million) turnover is notable but not a market signal.

04 Brazil and the currencies

Brazil’s real firmed only slightly to 5.1050 per dollar on Thursday, a smaller gain than most emerging currencies posted. That gap is worth watching, because it suggests foreign flows into Brazil have not yet caught the risk-on wave.

The Selic — Brazil’s benchmark interest rate — remains the region’s highest real yielding anchor, which normally attracts carry trade money when the Federal Reserve turns softer. Yet Thursday’s modest real move hints that investors are waiting for more conviction on US rates.

Friday brings Brazil’s trade balance at 18:00, with consensus at a $7.14 billion surplus, and data later in the evening from the CFTC — the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulator that tracks how much traders are betting on the real’s future direction. Those figures will show whether speculative traders are adding to bets that the real will rise, or trimming them.

For the equity market, a firmer real would ease imported cost pressure and support consumer and healthcare names, which led Thursday’s gainers on the B3. A weaker real would sharpen the case for exporters, a split the open will have to navigate.

05 The regional setup

The regional board shows a clear split: Mexico and Colombia firmly in positive territory, Brazil flat, and Argentina down sharply. Colombia’s 1.81 per cent jump is the regional standout, while Argentina’s 1.55 per cent drop marks the weakest close.

Chile’s main stock index, the IPSA, fell 1.14 per cent on the day, a reminder that copper and lithium companies are not automatically lifted by gold and silver. Peru’s BVL gained 0.43 per cent, the quiet beneficiary of the metals bid.

06 The technical picture

The Ibovespa remains about 6.8 per cent below its 52-week high of 198,657, trading at 185,188. That leaves the local benchmark in a consolidation band between 185,000 and 188,000, with the 52-week low of 139,864 far below.

Mexico’s IPC is nearly 9 per cent below its high of 71,601 but holding above its mid-range at 65,473. Colombia’s COLCAP leads the region after a 1.81 per cent gain, though it trades far less than Brazil or Mexico.

The dollar-real pair at 5.1050 sits roughly midway between its 52-week low of 4.8909 and high of 5.5901. A break below 5.05 would likely unlock fresh foreign equity inflows, while a push above 5.20 would test the central bank’s tolerance for import inflation.

07 What to watch

• US payrolls at 12:30: A strong number could revive the dollar and unwind the metal-driven Latin rally
• Mexico fixed investment: Two prints at 12:00 — a sign of whether the economy is regaining steam
• Brazil trade balance at 18:00: Confirms whether the export engine keeps supporting the real
• CFTC (US futures regulator) positioning data at 19:30: Shows if speculative traders added to bets on Latin American currencies rising, or cut them, before the open

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is gold rising ahead of the Latin open?

Softer US rate expectations lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, and a weaker dollar makes it cheaper in other currencies — a double tailwind that lifts miners across the region.

Why did Brazil fail to rally with Wall Street?

Brazil’s real firmed only slightly even as the dollar fell broadly. Heavy Vale turnover pointed to commodity profit-taking, not a currency divergence.

Which regional market leads this session?

Colombia’s COLCAP jumped 1.81 per cent on Thursday, the strongest close in the region, though Mexico’s larger and more liquid IPC is the steadier gauge for institutional flows.

What is the Selic and why does it matter here?

The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate. With the Fed signalling a pause, Brazil’s high real yields become more attractive to carry-trade investors, supporting the real and local bonds.

Market data: RT

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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