LatAm Pre-Open — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Source: RT close, 2026-08-12. Figures rendered directly from the feed.

01 The overnight tape in one read

This morning’s global tape is calm but not sleepy. Asian shares were largely steady, European bourses opened with modest gains, and US futures are pointing slightly higher after the S&P 500 inched up on Wednesday while the Dow Jones slipped nearly flat.

The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, dropped almost 5% on Wednesday to the mid-14s — a sign that investors are not bracing for an immediate shock. But the futures tape is thin on conviction, and the bond market is telling a cautious story: the US 10-year yield eased to 4.68% from 4.70%.

One clear thread is precious metals. Gold jumped 0.90% to settle near US$4,406 an ounce and silver added 0.89% to US$65.14, as traders looked for havens that do not depend on US interest rates falling quickly.

That backdrop matters for Latam because regional markets are high-beta plays on global risk appetite. When the world changes little, the regional currencies and bourses are left to trade their own local stories — and there are enough of those today.

02 The board before the open

The most striking feature of the board is the split among Latin American currencies. The Mexican peso is the relative winner, easing the dollar lower, while the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso are facing mild upward pressure on the US currency.

The real’s weakness is worth watching because it comes on a day when Brazil releases its retail sales report. A weak real and a strong consumption figure would complicate the central bank’s plan to keep cutting the Selic rate.

03 What the data shows — São Paulo’s money is rotating into cyclicals

The B3 board shows a very selective tape. The biggest turnover names — Petrobras and Vale — are not the day’s winners, suggesting that institutions are parking risk in liquid mega-caps while trading smaller, momentum-driven stories around them.

Embraer’s 4% jump on strong volume is the one move that has genuine depth. A Brazilian exporter rising while the real is weakening would be a classic hedge story, but the volume suggests more than just a flight to safety.

04 Brazil and the currencies

Brazil’s own macro calendar dominates this morning. Retail sales for June print at 9am Brasília time, with economists looking for a 2.4% annual gain after 0.4% in May. On the month, consensus is 0.3% against 0.1% previously. A strong number would support the economy’s resilience but also question how fast the central bank can cut the Selic rate further from 14.00% when the Copom next meets in September.

The central bank has delivered four straight cuts this year, taking the Selic from 15.00% on 19 March to 14.00% in August. For foreign bond investors, a slower cutting cycle means higher carry — a key reason the real has been a favourite the past month.

But the local story is not only about rates. The trade balance remains wide, and the currency is holding below the 5.20 per dollar mark despite a firmer US dollar index. That suggests enough dollar supply from exports to keep the real in a tight range.

Mexico’s peso is the other side of the coin: it has strengthened through the overnight session, and The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, published on Friday afternoon, will show how much speculative firepower is still pointed at the peso. The previous reading showed a large net long position, meaning the peso is more exposed to a sudden unwind if US data surprise on the strong side.

05 The regional setup

The regional board from Wednesday shows a clear north-south split. Mexico and Colombia gained while Brazil, Chile and Argentina fell, and that divergence is likely to persist until there is a clear signal from the data.

Chile’s IPSA fell the most, dropping more than 1.3%, which is notable because the Chilean peso barely moved. It suggests domestic investors are reducing equity risk, not foreign flows.

Colombia’s gain, by contrast, comes ahead of interesting activity data this afternoon — industrial production and retail sales. Both are expected to improve from prior prints, but the market is waiting to see if the consumer confidence reading confirms the more optimistic tone.

06 The technical picture

The technical layout for Brazil is the most fragile in the region. The Ibovespa is sitting far below its 52-week high and showing seven consecutive losing sessions, a streak that often attracts short-covering but can also accelerate if fresh selling appears.

Mexico’s IPC is in better shape, much closer to its 52-week high and still holding a positive medium-term trend. The peso’s strength reinforces that constructive equity picture.

Chile’s IPSA is interesting after the 1.3% slide. The index has not broken its wider range, but a second down day would put the 52-week support zone under pressure — especially with no major local catalyst until next week.

07 What to watch

• Argentina CPI tonight: A 2% monthly print would keep the annual inflation near 33.5%, and the market reaction will set the tone for the Merval on Friday.
• Brazil retail sales at 9am: A strong number could slow Brazil’s rate-cutting cycle and reverse the real’s overnight softness.
• US retail sales on Friday at 08:30 ET: A weak consumer reading would boost risk appetite across Latin America and lift the peso and real.
• Colombia industrial production: An expected 2.1% annual rise would support the COLCAP’s recent outperformance and keep flows into Bogotá alive.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Selic rate?

It is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank’s policy committee. It currently stands at 14.0% after a 25-basis-point cut in August 2026.

Why is the Merval falling before the inflation data?

Argentina reported a 0.76% decline in its main stock index on Wednesday. Traders are cautious ahead of the CPI print because a hot number would delay any economic normalisation.

How do US retail sales affect Latin America?

Weak US consumption raises bets on Fed rate cuts, which weakens the dollar and lifts demand for higher-yielding emerging-market assets like Brazilian and Mexican stocks.

What is the Ibovespa?

It is Brazil’s main stock market index, tracking the most traded companies on the B3 exchange in São Paulo.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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