Key Facts
- Brazil returns from Independence Day while New York reopens after Labour Day, putting two sessions of news into one open.
- Brent trades above US$98 a barrel, a six-week high, after United States forces struck three Iranian tankers on Saturday.
- Copper set an all-time high in London, with the cash contract at US$14,540 a tonne and futures reaching US$14,617 on Tuesday.
- Markets price a Federal Reserve rate rise, at roughly 60% odds for the September 16 meeting.
- Colombia closed at a record on Monday, with the COLCAP up 0.82% to 2,565.37 while most of the region sat still.
- Chile decides on rates at 17:00, with a hold at 4.50% the consensus.
Today’s Focus
Latin America opens with a commodity tailwind and a rate headwind. Brent is above US$98 and copper has set a record, but the Federal Reserve is now priced for an increase.
Brazil is the swing market today. B3 was closed on Monday and reopens into both stories at once.
The regional tape on Monday was quiet by necessity. Only Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Argentina traded, and all four moved less than one percent.
What matters today. Chile’s rate decision at 17:00 and the delayed Brazilian Focus survey at 08:25 are the two scheduled events that move local curves.
01 The overnight tape in one read
Asia rose and Europe went nowhere on Monday. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% on a firmer yen, while Shanghai added 0.3% and the Hang Seng 0.8%.
Europe finished flat, with the STOXX 600 near 649.9. The DAX slipped 0.2% and the CAC 40 added 0.1%.
Commodities did the work. Brent traded above US$98, copper set a record in London and iron ore climbed back above US$100 a tonne.
The dollar index eased 0.32% to 98.86. That came from yen strength on Bank of Japan tightening bets, not from any softening in American rate expectations.
The region gets the commodity mix it wants at exactly the wrong moment for funding. Copper at a record and Brent near US$98 lift the export side of every Andean and Brazilian trade balance. But a Federal Reserve priced for a hike on September 16, alongside an expected European rise on Thursday, raises the cost of the capital those trades run on. The variable to watch is Friday’s United States inflation print, which settles the argument for both.
02 The board before the open
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 185,147.15 | −0.02% | Friday close; B3 shut Monday |
| COLCAP | 2,565.37 | +0.82% | All-time high on Monday |
| S&P/BMV IPC | 64,727.54 | −0.21% | Televisa dragged the index |
| IPSA | 11,451.80 | −0.01% | Flat despite record copper |
| Merval | 3,034,599 | −0.50% | Thin session without foreign flow |
| Brent crude | US$98.33 | +1.20% | Six-week high on the tanker war |
| LME copper, cash | US$14,540/t | +1.18% | All-time high |
| USD/BRL, PTAX | 5.1247 | +0.50% | Friday close; no Monday print |
Note what did not trade. Neither Brazil nor the United States produced a Monday close, so the real has had no local price discovery since Friday.
That makes Tuesday’s Brazilian open the first real test of how the region absorbs the weekend’s news. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
188,775.51
+1.96%
+21.85%
185,147.15
168,310
167,142
—
IPSA
11,315.26
-1.14%
—
11,445.90
11,210
10,984
1,513,213,483
IPC MEX
64,727.54
-0.21%
+12.17%
64,866.61
66,121
65,405
108,886,187
MERVAL
3,034,599
+1.11%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
COLCAP
2,565.50
+0.82%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
BVL PERÚ
59,620.96
—
—
—
—
—
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
USD/MXN
17.06
-0.24%
-8.58%
17.10
17.08
17.01
—
USD/CLP
913.98
+0.04%
-5.67%
913.65
915.11
906.68
—
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
USD/PEN
3.36
-0.66%
-4.82%
3.38
3.38
3.35
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
USD/UYU
40.27
+1.24%
+1.80%
39.77
40.27
40.23
—
USD/PYG
5,939
+1.68%
-19.54%
5,841
5,939
5,925
—
USD/BOB
11.64
-0.76%
+72.04%
11.73
11.72
11.64
—
USD/DOP
58.34
+1.25%
-3.44%
57.62
58.34
58.04
—
USD/CRC
445.92
+0.89%
-9.71%
441.97
448.50
445.92
—
Today’s Economic Calendar — Tuesday, September 8, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | JP | Economy Watchers Current Index (Aug) | 46.3 | 45.7 (act. 46.4) |
| 02:00 | DE | Trade Balance (Jul) | 16.0B | 15.4B (act. 21.3B) |
| 02:00 | DE | Exports (m/m, Jul) | 0.0% | 0.9% (act. -0.8%) |
| 02:45 | FR | Trade Balance (Jul) | -6.0B | -5.8B (act. -6.7B) |
| 05:00 | ZA | GDP (y/y, Q2) | — | 1.9% |
| 06:00 | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) | 99.4 | 99.8 |
| 07:00 | CL | CPI (m/m, Aug) | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | CL | Core CPI (m/m, Aug) | — | 0.4% |
| 07:00 | BR | IGP-DI Inflation Index (m/m, Aug) | — | -0.86% |
| 07:25 | BR | BCB Focus Market Readout | — | — |
| 08:15 | US | ADP Employment Change, weekly | — | 11.80K |
| 09:00 | BR | Auto Production (m/m, Aug) | — | 3.1% |
| 09:00 | BR | Auto Sales (m/m, Aug) | — | 2.6% |
| 09:15 | UK | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 10:00 | US | CB Employment Trends Index (Aug) | — | 107.71 |
| 11:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations (Aug) | — | 3.6% |
| 11:00 | EU | ECB’s Elderson speaks | — | — |
| 13:00 | US | 3-Year Note Auction | — | 4.291% |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Credit (Jul) | 11.90B | 14.17B |
| 15:00 | AR | Industrial Production (y/y, Jul) | — | 2.0% |
| 17:00 | CL | Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 19:00 | KR | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | — | 2.8% |
| 21:30 | CN | CPI (y/y, Aug) | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 21:30 | CN | PPI (y/y, Aug) | 3.6% | 3.5% |
03 What the data shows — a heavy calendar for the region
Chile leads. Consumer prices for August arrive at 07:00, with the monthly consensus at 0.3% against 0.1% in July, and the rate decision follows at 17:00 with a hold at 4.50% expected.
Brazil publishes its wholesale IGP-DI at 07:00, after a fall of 0.86% in July. The delayed Focus survey lands at 08:25 and vehicle production and sales data at 09:00.
Argentina releases July industrial production at 15:00, after growth of 2.0% a year earlier. Colombia’s August consumer price data has already landed, at 6.24%.
In the United States, small business optimism is published at 06:00 with a forecast of 99.4, consumer credit at 15:00 with a forecast of US$11.9 billion, and a three-year note auction at 13:00.
Overnight, China releases consumer and producer prices at 21:30. Forecasts are 0.9% and 3.6%, both above the previous readings.
04 Brazil and the currencies
The real ended Friday at 5.1247 to the dollar on the official rate, having weakened 0.50% on the day but firmed 1.27% over the week.
The Selic is 14.00% after a unanimous quarter-point cut on August 5. Copom meets on September 15 and 16, one day before the Federal Reserve.
That sequencing is the week’s awkward detail. Brazil decides first, without knowing what Washington will do.
Elsewhere the peso story split. Mexico’s currency eased about 0.2% to 16.92, while Colombia’s firmed 0.35% to about 3,119 and Chile’s barely moved at 933.68.
05 The regional setup
Colombia has the momentum. The COLCAP set a record on Monday, though August inflation of 6.24% landed after the close and was worse than forecast.
Mexico has an event risk today. The government delivers its 2027 economic package to Congress, the first hard read on next year’s spending and revenue.
Chile has the clearest disconnect. Copper set a record while the IPSA finished flat, because second-quarter output fell 0.2% and July mining production dropped 9.3%.
Argentina is waiting. August inflation arrives on Thursday, with expectations near 1.7% for the month.
06 The technical picture
The Ibovespa sits about 7% below its record close of 199,043.97, set on April 14. It is up 14.91% so far this year after gaining 5.40% last week.
The COLCAP closed exactly at its high, at 2,565.37. Holding above that level would confirm the breakout.
Mexico’s IPC is now below 65,000 for a second session. That level has acted as support through the summer.
In copper, cash metal trades about US$92 above the three-month contract. That backwardation points to genuine near-term scarcity rather than speculation.
07 What to watch
- 08:25, Brazil’s Focus survey: Delayed from Monday. The year-end Selic call of 13.75% is the number that matters before Copom.
- 17:00, Chile’s rate decision: A hold at 4.50% is expected. The guidance matters more, with growth forecasts cut to 1.3%.
- Mexico’s 2027 budget: The package reaches Congress today. Revenue assumptions set the tone for peso risk.
- 21:30, China prices: Consumer and producer inflation both forecast higher. A miss would question last month’s 25% export jump.
- The Gulf: Iran says a Hormuz shipping deal with Oman is days away. Crude has risen on the talk so far.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Brazilian stock market open today?
Yes. B3 was closed on Monday for Independence Day and reopens on Tuesday, alongside a New York market returning from Labour Day.
Why is oil rising?
United States forces struck three Iranian tankers on Saturday and Iran said it hit six vessels in reply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to about ten ships a day.
Why did copper set a record?
Traders expect United States tariffs on refined copper imports, supply outside the United States is tight, and output cuts have followed accidents at large mines.
What does the Federal Reserve pricing mean for the region?
Roughly 60% odds of a hike on September 16 raise the cost of dollar funding. That pressures regional currencies even while commodity prices are strong.
Latin American markets — Market data: RT; exchange figures from B3
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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