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Latin America Sports Daily for Thursday, October 22, 2026

By Oliver Mason · October 22, 2026 · 4 min read

Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Canelo Alvarez a 73% chance against Christian Mbilli, and gives America a 29% chance to win the Liga MX Apertura, as of October 28, 9:37 a.m. ET. Prices are bets, not polls.

The road to Montevideo narrows. Flamengo host Estudiantes at the Maracanã on Thursday night with the tie locked at 0–0 after the first leg in La Plata.

Palmeiras are through. Fluminense won 1–0 at Nubank Parque on Wednesday night, but Palmeiras took the penalty shoot-out 5–3 after the tie ended 2–2 on aggregate.

A continental final is secure. Atlético Mineiro advanced 3–2 on aggregate in the Copa Sudamericana despite a 2–0 defeat to Montevideo City Torque in Uruguay.

Today’s headlines October 22, 2026

Event	Status	Angle
Palmeiras vs Fluminense	Result	Fluminense won 1–0, the tie finished 2–2 on aggregate and Palmeiras won the shoot-out 5–3 to reach the Libertadores final.
Atlético Mineiro vs Montevideo City Torque	Result	Atlético Mineiro lost 2–0 in Uruguay but advanced to the Sudamericana final 3–2 on aggregate.

01

Flamengo Face Estudiantes With Final Place At Stake At Maracanã

Preview

Flamengo and Estudiantes play the most important 90 minutes of their Libertadores campaigns on Thursday night. The first leg in La Plata finished 0–0 on October 15, leaving the tie completely open.

The Maracanã second leg decides who meets Palmeiras in the final. Flamengo are unbeaten in this year’s competition, with seven wins and four draws.

Estudiantes held Flamengo to a 0–0 draw in La Plata on 15 October and created the better chances.

The prize is a place in the final at Montevideo’s Estadio Centenario on November 28. Kick-off is at 9:30pm Brasília time.

In short — Flamengo and Estudiantes restart a 0–0 tie at the Maracanã on Thursday with a place in the Libertadores final on the line.

Aerial view of the Maracanã stadium in Rio de Janeiro. — The Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, where Flamengo host Estudiantes on Thursday night. Latin America Sports Daily for Thursday, October 22, 2026. (File photo)

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02

Palmeiras Beat Fluminense On Penalties To Reach The Libertadores Final

Result

Fluminense won the second leg 1–0 at Nubank Parque on Wednesday night, with Hércules scoring late in the match, which levelled the tie at 2–2 on aggregate. Palmeiras scored all five of their penalties in the shoot-out and won it 5–3 after Fluminense missed their fourth attempt.

Palmeiras will meet Flamengo or Estudiantes in the final on 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

In short — Palmeiras survived a 1–0 defeat to Fluminense and won the penalty shoot-out 5–3 to reach the Libertadores final.

03

Atlético Mineiro Survive Montevideo Scare To Reach South American Final

Result

Atlético Mineiro lost 2–0 to Montevideo City Torque on Wednesday night in the Copa Sudamericana semifinal second leg. The 3–0 first-leg lead proved just enough.

The Brazilian club advanced 3–2 on aggregate.

Atlético Mineiro will face Boca Juniors, who beat Vasco da Gama 3–1 at the Maracanã in the second leg after losing the first leg 1–0. The final is on 21 November at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia.

In short — Atlético Mineiro absorbed a 2–0 defeat in Montevideo but held on to win the tie 3–2 on aggregate.

04

Montevideo City Torque Show Courage In Defeat As Continental Dream Ends

Feature

Montevideo City Torque won the second leg 2–0 on home soil but left with only pride. The Uruguayan side needed four goals after losing the first leg 3–0 in Belo Horizonte.

Kevin Silva scored in the 89th minute and Gary Kagelmacher in stoppage time, which made the scoreline respectable but not enough.

Torque had reached the Copa Sudamericana semifinals.

The defeat leaves Uruguay without a representative in the final.

In short — Montevideo City Torque won the battle but lost the war, exiting the Copa Sudamericana with a 2–0 victory and a 3–2 aggregate defeat.

What Prediction Markets Say

Implied chances from traders’ prices, as of October 28, 9:37 a.m. ET.

Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli

Canelo Alvarez 73% · Christian Mbilli 28%

Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 543,600 contracts traded

Liga MX Apertura Champion

America 29% · Guadalajara 19% · Cruz Azul 18%

Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 877,842 contracts traded

Brazil Série A: Winner

Flamengo 63.5% · Palmeiras 36.5% · Athletico Paranaense 0.5%

Polymarket · US$54,479 traded

Copa Libertadores: Winner

Palmeiras 64% · Estudiantes LP 28.3%

Polymarket · US$39,038 traded

Colombia Primera A: Teams relegated (2026)

Jaguares 60% · Independiente Santa Fe 2.3% · Independiente Medellín 2.3%

Polymarket · US$23,773 traded

Bolivia LFPB: Teams relegated (2026)

GV San José 58.5% · Real Tomayapo 43.5% · Bulo Bulo 16%

Polymarket · US$16,381 traded

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

All football and sports odds, updated every 30 minutes

05

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ

Who has reached the Copa Libertadores final?

Palmeiras, who won a penalty shoot-out 5–3 against Fluminense on Wednesday after a 2–2 aggregate. Flamengo and Estudiantes are level at 0–0 after the first leg and meet at the Maracanã on Thursday at 9:30pm Brasília time.

When and where is the Copa Libertadores final?

The final is scheduled for November 28, 2026 at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo. The second finalist will be confirmed after Thursday’s Flamengo–Estudiantes match.

How did Atlético Mineiro reach the Copa Sudamericana final?

Atlético Mineiro won the first leg 3–0 in Belo Horizonte. Despite losing the return leg 2–0 to Montevideo City Torque on Wednesday, they advanced 3–2 on aggregate.

In short — Fans ask about the Libertadores semifinal scores, the November 28 final venue, and Atlético Mineiro’s Sudamericana aggregate win.

Sources: AP News – Fluminense Palmeiras, CONMEBOL – Semi-final schedule, CONMEBOL – Semifinal first legs, CONMEBOL – Sudamericana race, AFP – Palmeiras beat Fluminense

Updated: 2026-10-21T23:18:00-03:00 by Oliver Mason, Latin America sports correspondent.

Connected Coverage

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Atlético Mineiro Reach South American Final

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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Latin America Sports Daily for Thursday, October 22, 2026

Today’s headlines October 22, 2026

Flamengo Face Estudiantes With Final Place At Stake At Maracanã

Palmeiras Beat Fluminense On Penalties To Reach The Libertadores Final

Atlético Mineiro Survive Montevideo Scare To Reach South American Final

Montevideo City Torque Show Courage In Defeat As Continental Dream Ends

What Prediction Markets Say

Frequently Asked Questions

Who has reached the Copa Libertadores final?

When and where is the Copa Libertadores final?

How did Atlético Mineiro reach the Copa Sudamericana final?

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