Latin American Pulse for Friday, February 20, 2026
Executive Summary
Read about Latin American Pulse for Friday, February 20, 2026 on The Rio Times.
Argentina’s Labor Reform Passes 135–115 After the Broadest Strike of Milei’s Presidency; Colombia’s Deadliest Campaign in Decades Heads Toward March 8 With 61 Leaders Killed; Mexico’s Flagship Investment Plan Stumbles as Trump Weighs USMCA Exit
This is part of The Rio Times’ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
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Executive Summary
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The Big Picture: Argentina’s Chamber of Deputies passed Milei’s landmark labor reform 135–115 in a vote that concluded after 1 AM Friday, following a 13-hour session conducted while the country was paralyzed by its broadest general strike. The CGT claimed 90% compliance. Clashes erupted outside Congress. Article 44 on sick leave was stripped to secure passage, meaning the bill must return to the Senate before the February 28 extraordinary sessions deadline. The MERVAL surged 4.26% Thursday, completely reversing Wednesday’s selloff.
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Colombia is heading into its March 8 legislative elections under the worst campaign violence in decades. At least 61 political leaders have been killed, a presidential frontrunner was assassinated last year, and a third of the country’s municipalities are deemed unsafe for candidates. On Wednesday, Petro and Venezuela’s Rodríguez announced a bilateral summit in Cúcuta to discuss energy, security, and border cooperation—a significant diplomatic realignment since the fall of Maduro.
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Mexico’s flagship Plan México investment program is struggling to get off the ground, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, even as Sheinbaum needs it most: Trump is weighing whether to withdraw from the $1.9 trillion USMCA trade pact ahead of the July 1 review deadline. Separately, Sheinbaum offered to mediate the U.S.–Cuba standoff and announced a pension reform targeting officials earning over $50,000 a month in retirement.
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Regional Mood
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Thursday delivered outcomes on every story that was live this week: Argentina’s reform passed, Venezuela’s amnesty was signed into law, Peru’s new president entered the palace. Markets responded: MERVAL +4.26%, Ibovespa +1.35% in its first full post-Carnival session. But the stories that will define the next 30 days are structural—Colombia’s election violence, Mexico’s USMCA reckoning, and Argentina’s Senate deadline.
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Risk Snapshot
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| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Deputies passed reform 135–115; Senate must vote before Feb 28; CGT warns of court challenges; MERVAL +4.26% Thu | CRITICAL |
| Colombia | 61 leaders killed; March 8 legislative elections 16 days out; Petro–Rodríguez Cúcuta summit announced; 130 municipalities unsafe | CRITICAL |
| Mexico | Plan México stumbling; Trump weighing USMCA withdrawal; judicial reform chilling investment; Cuba mediation offer | HIGH |
| Peru | Balcázar entered palace; pledged transparent elections; controversies emerge; 51 days to April 12 vote | HIGH |
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Argentina
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Labor Reform Passes Deputies 135–115 After Broadest Strike of Milei’s Presidency; Senate Final Vote Next Week
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What Happened
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- —Reform Passes: The Chamber of Deputies approved Milei’s labor reform 135–115 with no abstentions in a vote that concluded after 1 AM Friday, following more than 13 hours of debate. The ruling La Libertad Avanza coalition secured support from allied blocs including Fuerzas del Cambio, Innovación Federal, and several independents. Article 44—which would have halved sick-leave pay—was stripped to secure passage. The bill now returns to the Senate for a final vote on the amended text before the February 28 extraordinary sessions deadline.
- —Strike and Clashes: Thursday’s 24-hour general strike—the fourth and broadest of Milei’s presidency—saw 90% compliance, according to CGT secretary general Jorge Sola. All transport was paralyzed: 255 flights cancelled, rail, subway, and buses halted, ports shut. Outside Congress, police deployed water cannon and tear gas against demonstrators. Three were detained for damage and resistance to authority.
- —Milei at Board of Peace: In Washington, Trump publicly endorsed Milei at the inaugural Board of Peace summit. Member states pledged $7 billion for Gaza reconstruction; the U.S. committed $10 billion. Five countries pledged troops for a 20,000-strong stabilization force.
- —Markets: MERVAL surged 4.26% to 2,839,106 (Thu), fully reversing Wednesday’s 3.30% selloff as traders priced in passage.
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Why It Matters
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This is the deepest structural change to Argentine labor law since the 1940s Peronist compact. Key surviving provisions include 12-hour workdays via a “time bank,” reduced severance, strike restrictions, and company-level collective bargaining replacing sector-wide agreements.
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The 135–115 margin exceeded government expectations, demonstrating the coalition’s post-midterm strength. But the CGT’s 90% strike compliance signals organized labor retains enormous disruptive capacity. Sola declined to say whether further strikes would follow, and union leaders warned they will challenge the law in courts.
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Passage would make Milei the first Argentine president since Fernando de la Rúa in 2000 to overhaul the labor code—a precedent that later unraveled amid bribery prosecution. The Senate final vote is the last hurdle.
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Key Watch
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Senate final vote timing (must pass before Feb 28). CGT board meeting today on further action. Court challenges. MERVAL continuation.
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RISK: CRITICAL
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Colombia
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Deadliest Campaign in Decades: 61 Leaders Killed, a Third of Country Unsafe as March 8 Elections Approach
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What Happened
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- —Election Violence Intensifies: Colombia’s 2026 campaign is the most violent in decades. At least 61 political leaders have been killed ahead of the March 8 legislative elections and May 31 presidential vote, according to the Electoral Observation Mission. Candidates face threats in 130 municipalities—roughly a third of the total—with 81 classified as extreme risk. In February alone, ELN guerrillas ambushed Senator Jairo Castellanos’s convoy in Arauca, firing over 400 rounds and killing two bodyguards. Days later, congresswoman Aida Quilcué was kidnapped in Cauca.
- —Presidential Race Under Fire: Presidential candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella have both received direct threats, with the ELN declaring de la Espriella a military target on February 10. The assassination of frontrunner Miguel Uribe Turbay in Bogotá last June—the first killing of a presidential aspirant in over 30 years—remains a defining event. Polls show the race splitting between Iván Cepeda (Petro’s negotiation approach) and de la Espriella (end all talks, military offensive).
- —Petro–Rodríguez Summit: Petro and Venezuela’s Acting President Rodríguez announced Wednesday they will hold a bilateral summit “soon” in the border city of Cúcuta to discuss energy cooperation, security, and infrastructure. It would be their first heads-of-state meeting since the fall of Maduro—a significant diplomatic development given the two countries share a 2,200 km border and Colombia hosts nearly three million Venezuelan migrants.
- —Markets: COLCAP rose 0.84% to 2,386.38 (Thu). The U.S. Embassy issued a demonstration alert for Plaza Bolívar protests on Feb 19.
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Why It Matters
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The March 8 vote will reshape Congress and set the terrain for the presidential election. But more than 3,000 congressional candidates must now decide whether to campaign in territories where the state has little presence. Under Petro, armed groups have expanded territory as coca production hit record highs—UN figures put cocaine exports above 1,700 tons, the highest on record.
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Defence Minister Pedro Sánchez announced a security deployment to ensure “safe” elections, but critics blame four years of negotiation-first policy for emboldening armed groups. The Clan del Golfo, Colombia’s largest cartel, abandoned peace talks after Petro pledged to pursue its leader following his February 3 meeting with Trump.
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The Petro–Rodríguez summit signals a pragmatic realignment: Colombia needs Venezuelan gas and border stability; Caracas needs diplomatic legitimacy. For investors, investment has sunk to roughly 16% of GDP—a two-decade low—as extortionists target freight, energy, and agribusiness.
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Key Watch
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March 8 legislative election security. Presidential candidate safety. Cúcuta bilateral summit date. Clan del Golfo response to peace talk collapse. U.S. extradition demands for three cartel warlords.
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RISK: CRITICAL
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Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
+0.41%
176,454
+0.41%
66,840
+1.31%
10,928
+0.16%
3,253,502
+0.56%
2,299.56
-0.35%
56,428.20
+2.25%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,454 | +0.41% | +30.42% | 175,739 | 177,179 | 175,743 | — |
| IPSA | 10,928 | +0.16% | — | 10,910 | 10,928 | 10,928 | 352,279,762 |
| IPC MEX | 66,840 | +1.31% | +18.59% | 65,973 | 66,985 | 65,930 | 21,005,800 |
| MERVAL | 3,253,502 | +0.56% | +57.63% | 3,235,295 | 3,279,361 | 3,235,295 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,299.56 | -0.35% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 56,428.20 | +2.25% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -1.24% | -8.95% | 5.14 | 5.13 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.80 | -0.32% | -10.77% | 5.82 | 5.87 | 5.80 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.41 | -0.66% | -6.66% | 17.53 | 17.53 | 17.38 | — |
| USD/CLP | 923.35 | -1.02% | -1.54% | 932.90 | 933.27 | 922.38 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,253 | -0.29% | -18.91% | 3,263 | 3,260 | 3,223 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.39 | -0.64% | -2.51% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.39 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,476 | -0.51% | +17.39% | 1,483 | 1,482 | 1,475 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.23 | +0.99% | +0.80% | 39.84 | 40.23 | 40.22 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,039 | +1.12% | -20.92% | 5,972 | 6,045 | 6,039 | — |
| USD/BOB | 10.35 | +6.04% | +53.28% | 9.76 | 10.35 | 10.35 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.31 | +0.39% | -2.03% | 58.08 | 58.72 | 58.30 | — |
| USD/CRC | 448.93 | +1.31% | -8.80% | 443.11 | 448.93 | 448.53 | — |
Mexico
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Plan México Stumbles as Trump Weighs USMCA Exit; Sheinbaum Offers Cuba Mediation and Targets Gold-Plated Pensions
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What Happened
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- —Plan México Struggling: Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Sheinbaum’s flagship $323 billion investment program—designed to offset U.S. trade tensions—is struggling to attract capital. Coparmex, the employers’ federation, says investment levels have fallen to pandemic-era lows, blaming the 2024 judicial reform that replaced experienced judges with elected novices. A central bank survey found “lack of rule of law” has risen to the second-biggest obstacle to doing business in Mexico, trailing only crime.
- —USMCA Under Threat: Also on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported Trump is weighing whether to withdraw from the $1.9 trillion USMCA trade pact ahead of the July 1 review deadline. Trump called the agreement “irrelevant” at a Michigan plant event. Mexico’s technical negotiators have completed internal consultations and expect a formal conclusion around late June—coinciding with the World Cup.
- —Cuba Mediation and Pension Reform: Sheinbaum said Tuesday that talks are ongoing for Mexico to mediate the U.S.–Cuba conflict, adding that “the only ones who can decide the government in Cuba are the Cuban people.” Separately, she announced a reform initiative to cap pensions for former senior officials at 50% of the president’s salary, targeting schemes where some retirees receive over $50,000 a month. The estimated savings: 5 billion pesos annually.
- —Markets: IPC closed at 70,845.66 (−0.06%, Thu). The peso trades around 17.30 to the dollar.
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Why It Matters
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Mexico’s economic model depends on Plan México attracting private investment while the USMCA provides the trade architecture. If both falter simultaneously, the economy—which has barely expanded in recent years—has no fallback. Public investment slumped 28.4% in 2025, the steepest decline in modern history.
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The judicial reform is the connective tissue. Companies are increasingly avoiding Mexican courts, opting for arbitration or mediation. Some investments are being delayed or shelved. A second round of judicial elections in 2027 means the uncertainty has years to run.
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The Cuba mediation offer positions Sheinbaum as a regional diplomatic player while avoiding the economic cost of sending oil—something Trump has warned would trigger tariffs. The pension reform is popular domestically and signals fiscal discipline ahead of the USMCA review.
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Key Watch
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USMCA negotiations timeline (July 1 deadline). Plan México private sector uptake. Judicial reform investor impact. Cuba mediation progress. Anti-corruption purge (60 arrests including Morena officials).
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RISK: HIGH
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Peru
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Balcázar Enters Presidential Palace Amid Emerging Controversies; 51 Days to April 12 Election
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What Happened
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- —First Day in Office: Balcázar, 83, was received by the honor guard at the presidential palace Thursday, ending a 24-hour power vacuum. He told journalists he will guarantee “a peaceful and transparent democratic and electoral transition, leaving no room for doubt.” He is Peru’s eighth president in a decade and the oldest person ever sworn into the office.
- —Controversies Surface: Balcázar faces allegations of misappropriating approximately $600,000 from the Lambayeque bar association during his time as dean, with ongoing legal proceedings. He was expelled from the bar in 2022. In 2023, he drew backlash for arguing that child marriage without violence could benefit a girl’s mental development. He was removed from the Supreme Court bench in 2011 after the CNM declined ratification.
- —Election Landscape: Peru votes April 12 with 34 registered candidates. López Aliaga leads polls; Keiko Fujimori runs second. A runoff is virtually certain for June. Tren de Aragua gang violence and extortion dominate voter concerns.
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Why It Matters
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Balcázar’s controversial background makes him politically fragile—his Perú Libre affiliation, legal troubles, and past statements give opposition ammunition. But removing yet another president before April would be extraordinary even by Peru’s standards.
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The economy remains resilient (32% debt-to-GDP, mining intact, copper prices supportive), but the political instability—eight presidents in a decade, four impeached—continues to deter long-term investment. Every decision Balcázar makes will be read through an electoral lens.
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Key Watch
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Cabinet appointments. Whether opposition launches removal proceedings. April 12 campaign dynamics. Jerí prosecution.
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RISK: HIGH
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Regional Snapshot
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Venezuela: The National Assembly passed the amnesty bill Thursday and Acting President Rodríguez signed it into law within hours—the first time Caracas has formally acknowledged holding political prisoners. More than 600 detainees are eligible under Foro Penal estimates. Venezuelans abroad can now have lawyers apply on their behalf. Implementation speed and eligibility exclusions are the key variables to watch.
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Cuba: The electrical deficit hit 1,853 MW on Wednesday night, blacking out 61% of the country Thursday. Cuba’s UN representative invoked a “zero option” scenario, signaling Havana is preparing for the possibility that no oil arrives at all. Progressive International announced the Nuestra América Flotilla will attempt to deliver humanitarian aid on March 21. Republican lawmakers pushed to indict Raúl Castro. Aeroflot’s last scheduled Cuba service runs February 24.
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Brazil: Lula is in New Delhi for the AI Impact Summit, where he spoke Thursday alongside Modi on artificial intelligence governance and met with Google CEO Sundar Pichai and French President Macron on the sidelines. A state visit with Modi follows on February 21. Back home, a Carnival samba school paying tribute to Lula finished last in Rio’s competition and was relegated, sparking political backlash ahead of October’s elections. Ibovespa rallied 1.35% to 188,534 in its first full post-Carnival session.
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Board of Peace: The inaugural summit in Washington drew over 40 countries. Nine member states pledged $7 billion for Gaza reconstruction; the U.S. committed $10 billion. Five countries offered troops for a 20,000-strong stabilization force. Russia declined. Pope Leo XIV declined. Paraguay’s Peña joked his country would support the U.S. “except on June 12” when they meet in the World Cup.
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Chile: Kast’s March 11 inauguration preparations continue. Immigration remains the dominant policy issue, with 79% of Chileans favoring more restrictive migration policy. IPSA fell 0.51% to 10,809.15 (Thu).
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Markets at a Glance
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| Index | Close | Change | Context |
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| Ibovespa (Thu) | 188,534.42 | +1.35% | First full post-Carnival session; Lula in India |
| MERVAL (Thu) | 2,839,106.06 | +4.26% | Full reversal of Wed selloff; reform priced in |
| IPC (Thu) | 70,845.66 | −0.06% | Flat; USMCA uncertainty, Plan México headwinds |
| COLCAP (Thu) | 2,386.38 | +0.84% | Modest gain; election risk not yet repriced |
| IPSA (Thu) | 10,809.15 | −0.51% | Quiet pullback; Kast transition steady |
| S&P 500 (Thu) | 6,880.53 | +0.29% | Steady; Board of Peace day |
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Source: TradingView (Tier 0) for Ibovespa, MERVAL, IPC, COLCAP, IPSA, S&P 500. All data reflects Thursday, February 19, 2026 closing sessions.
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The Week Ahead
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| Date | Event |
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| Fri Feb 20 | Argentina: CGT board meets on further action • Venezuela: Amnesty implementation begins • Brazil: Lula–Pichai/Macron sidelines (AI Summit Day 2) |
| Sat Feb 21 | Brazil: Lula–Modi state visit bilateral in New Delhi |
| Mon Feb 24 | Cuba: Aeroflot last scheduled Cuba service • Argentina: Senate return window opens for labor reform final vote |
| Fri Feb 28 | Argentina: Extraordinary sessions deadline—labor reform must pass Senate |
| Sun Mar 8 | Colombia: Legislative elections under heightened security |
| Wed Mar 11 | Chile: Kast inauguration |
| Mar 17–18 | Brazil: BCB Copom rate decision (50bp cut to 14.50% expected) |
| Mar 21 | Cuba: Nuestra América Flotilla targets Havana |
| Apr 12 | Peru: General election (first round) |
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Related: Brazil Morning Call | Global Economy Briefing