Latin American Pulse for Saturday, October 24, 2026
Executive Summary
Brazil votes Sunday in a runoff that polls call a technical tie, while Argentine bank shares jump about 5% in New York and Chile's peso slips.
Rio Times · Latin America
Key Facts
—Brazil Anxious but hopeful as polls call the runoff a technical tie before Sunday’s vote.
—Mexico Steady stocks and a firmer peso, while diesel gets no tax relief for a sixth week.
—Argentina Cautiously optimistic as bank shares jump about 5% in New York.
—Colombia Peso gains 0.3% as oil rises about 3%.
—Chile Quiet and slightly softer: stocks slip 0.3% and the peso loses 0.9%.
—Prediction markets Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 82% and Kalshi at 81% (Lula: 19% and 19%), as of 24 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Latin America spent Friday waiting for Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, while markets elsewhere moved in small steps.
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 205,083 | +0.47% |
| S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico) | 69,678 | -0.30% |
| S&P IPSA (Chile) | 10,746 | -0.31% |
| Banco Galicia ADR, New York (Argentina) | US$37.91 | +4.96% |
| USD/BRL | 4.9654 | -1.57% |
| USD/MXN | 18.65 | -0.33% |
Source: market close, 23 October 2026.
The Continent’s Mood Today
The region spent Friday waiting for Sunday’s presidential runoff in Brazil. Markets elsewhere moved in small steps, and only Argentina’s bank shares made a big jump.
Currencies told a mixed story: the Brazilian real gained 1.6% against the US dollar, while Chile’s peso lost about 0.9%.
Brazil – A Runoff Too Close to Call
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. An Alfa Inteligência poll released on 23 October, with fieldwork from 18 to 22 October, put Flávio at 49.9% of total votes and Lula at 46%.
That equals 52% to 48% of valid votes, a technical tie inside the poll’s 1.9-point margin of error. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, who bet real money, see it differently and give Flávio about a 78% chance of winning.
The last television debate of the campaign was due on Globo on Friday evening. Flávio has said he would treat the PCC and Comando Vermelho gangs as narcoterrorist groups, while Lula stresses federal coordination on security.
Brazil’s central bank approved rules on 23 October that make lenders offer a clear way to block credit advertising and a single dashboard of a customer’s debts. The rules take effect between March and July 2027.
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, rose 0.47% to 205,083, and the real strengthened to 4.97 per US dollar. Mid-month inflation for October was 0.32%, down from 0.70% in the previous reading.
For a foreigner holding Brazilian assets, Sunday is a test of political stability. Polls and prediction markets differ on who is ahead, so Monday’s trading could be volatile.
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
+0.47%
205,082.56
+0.47%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,746.36
-0.31%
3,017,221
—
2,540.10
+0.46%
57,021.19
+0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,746.36 | -0.31% | — | 10,780.31 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 69,879.62 | -0.01% | +12.17% | 69,889.73 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,540.10 | +0.46% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 57,021.19 | +0.13% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
Mexico – Fuel Costs and a Steady Market
Mexico’s IPC stock index slipped 0.30% to 69,678 on Friday, while the peso gained 0.3% to 18.65 per US dollar. For the week of 17 to 23 October, the finance ministry cut the share of the gasoline tax it waives for regular Magna petrol to about 59% from 64%.
Diesel received no tax relief for a sixth week in a row. For a foreigner living in Mexico, fuel and transport costs are creeping up even as the currency holds steady.
Argentina – A Bank Rally in New York
Argentine shares listed in New York rose sharply on Friday: Banco Galicia gained 5.0%, Banco Macro 4.9%, oil producer Vista 6.0% and YPF 3.1%. We could not confirm Friday’s closing level of Buenos Aires’ own Merval index in time for this report.
Argentine shares have swung sharply in recent weeks, so one strong day is no guarantee of a trend. Foreign investors tend to read the New York listings first because they trade in US dollars.
Colombia – The Peso Gains with Oil
Colombia’s peso gained 0.3% to 3,187 per US dollar on Friday. Oil, the country’s largest export, rose about 3% as Brent crude moved above US$116 a barrel.
For a foreigner with operations in Colombia, higher oil prices help both the currency and government revenue. A reversal in crude would quickly show up in Bogotá’s markets.
Chile – A Softer Peso on a Quiet Day
Chile’s IPSA stock index slipped 0.31% to 10,746 on Friday. The peso weakened 0.9% to 995 per US dollar.
Chile’s economy leans on copper exports and is sensitive to global risk appetite, which fell on Wall Street on Friday. A weaker peso makes imported goods costlier for households.
The Shared Mood
The region’s Friday was shaped by outside forces as much as local ones: a stronger real, a weaker Chilean peso and pricier oil. Brazil’s vote is the immediate test, and the result will set the tone for the region’s markets on Monday.
For a foreigner, the continent offers opportunity but demands a clear view of risk. Sunday’s runoff in Brazil is the first thing to watch.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 81.9% · Lula 18.5% (US$195 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 81% · Lula 19%
As of 24 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Brazil’s election so tense?
Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro with a narrow lead over Lula, but the gap is within the margin of error. Prediction markets, which are bets and not polls, give Flávio about a 78% chance.
How did Latin American currencies move on Friday?
The Brazilian real gained 1.6% against the US dollar and the Mexican peso gained 0.3%. Chile’s peso lost 0.9%.
What should investors watch next?
Brazil’s runoff on Sunday 25 October is the main event. The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates on Wednesday 28 October.
Sources: InfoMoney – BC aprova medidas para ampliar proteção de consumidor financeiro, Exame – Pesquisa Alfa a dois dias do 2º turno
Connected Coverage
Ferrari May Field Brazilian at Interlagos
Mexico Stocks Slip 0.30% as Peso Gains 0.33% | Mexico Market Report, Oct 23
Colombia Stocks Rise 0.44% as Oil Climbs | Colombia Market Report, Oct 23
Argentina Stocks Jump 4.4% as Banks Rally | Argentina Market Report, Oct 23
Chile Stocks Slip 0.31% as Peso Weakens | Chile Market Report, Oct 23
Companion: the Latin America Power Index, with today’s ranking and signals; members can download the full report (PDF).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief