Chile Lithium Stocks: SQM Drops 2% on Codelco Takeover Fears
Key Facts
- The LIT lithium and battery ETF slid 0.85% to US$69.22 on Friday, dragging down a broad basket of miners and battery makers as a proxy for lithium supply-chain sentiment.
- SQM’s New York shares sank -2.00% to US$67.06, the steepest drop among major lithium producers, pressured by the ongoing renegotiation of Chile’s Atacama brine leases.
- Albemarle eased a modest -0.10% to US$117.64, outperforming SQM as investors judged its long-term contract with Corfo less immediately exposed to Chile’s new state-participation rules.
- Chile’s Codelco is set to take control of SQM’s Atacama operations from 2031, under a preliminary December 2023 agreement that leaves SQM as the operating partner but reshapes future profit sharing.
- Global electric-vehicle sales growth dictates lithium demand, since lithium compounds are essential for all major battery chemistries, including the increasingly popular LFP cells championed by Chinese producers.
- Argentina’s lithium projects from Arcadium Lithium, Ganfeng and POSCO are advancing, but chronic currency instability and inflation continue complicating capital raising for new brine operations.
Today’s Focus
Lithium equities opened the week under pressure, with the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF dropping 0.85% to US$69.22. The ETF holds a mix of companies that pump lithium-rich brine, miners that blast it out of hard rock, and battery manufacturers, making it a broad gauge of investor expectations for the entire lithium chain.
Chilean giant SQM bore the brunt of the selling, tumbling -2.00% to US$67.06 as the market digested the long-term implications of a planned 2031 handover of its Atacama operations to state copper firm Codelco. Under the preliminary deal struck in December 2023, SQM would remain the operator but cede control, clouding the earnings outlook beyond its current lease terms.
Albemarle fared better, slipping just -0.10% to US$117.64, because investors view its separate Corfo contract as more stable amid Chile’s push for majority state ownership in new lithium projects. Meanwhile, EV demand signals remain the ultimate driver, with Chinese battery makers like CATL and BYD expanding capacity while European and US automakers race to secure long-term lithium supply.
What matters today. Whether Chile finalises SQM’s Codelco deal on terms that preserve investment returns, or if uncertainty pushes capital toward Argentina’s more flexible project pipeline.
01 The session in one read
Lithium-linked equities fell on Friday as investors weighed Chile’s shifting ownership model against a mixed demand picture from the global electric-vehicle industry. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF, a fund that holds lithium miners and battery producers rather than physical metal, shed 0.85% to settle at US$69.22.
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile, better known as SQM, led the decline with a sharp -2.00% drop to US$67.06, reflecting unease about the 2031 handover of its core Atacama brine operation to state copper champion Codelco. Albemarle, the other big Atacama producer, fell only -0.10% to US$117.64, because its existing contract with Chilean development agency Corfo insulates current earnings more effectively.
Friday’s disproportionate hit to SQM reflects a specific discount for the post-2031 earnings gap, rather than a broad lithium bear market. The smaller Albemarle decline suggests the market sees a two-tier landscape emerging in the Lithium Triangle: producers with legacy contracts are shielded, while those approaching renewal face a valuation haircut. The variable to watch is any further detail from Santiago on the Codelco-SQM joint venture terms, which could either validate or widen Friday’s sell-off.
02 The board
The LIT ETF’s decline shows selling across the full lithium supply chain rather than a single-company event. Its portfolio spans brine producers in Chile and Argentina, hard-rock miners in Australia and China, and battery-cell manufacturers whose order books depend on the pace of EV adoption.
SQM’s -2.00% slide marks the stock as Friday’s weakest lithium proxy, widening the performance gap with Albemarle that has been a feature of trading since Chile’s national lithium strategy was unveiled in April 2023. Albemarle’s -0.10% dip was barely a wobble, confirming that traders see less immediate regulatory risk for the US-listed producer.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium (LIT ETF) | US$69.22 | -0.85% |
| Albemarle | US$117.64 | -0.10% |
| SQM | US$67.06 | -2.00% |
Source: RT close, 2026-07-31. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,874.64 | -2.50% | +24.22% | 172,179.93 | 172,386 | 168,470 | — |
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| MERVAL | 3,022,485 | -3.19% | +32.12% | 3,122,065 | 3,185,663 | 3,041,807 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,423.37 | +2.14% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,693.55 | -1.60% | — | — | — | — | — |
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| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.45% | -5.81% | 5.87 | 5.96 | 5.89 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.10 | -0.22% | -7.96% | 17.14 | 17.16 | 17.10 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.58 | -0.40% | -5.60% | 917.27 | 916.37 | 912.70 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,116 | -1.26% | -22.91% | 3,156 | 3,144 | 3,104 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.38 | -0.09% | -2.62% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.36 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | -0.39% | +12.66% | 1,498 | 1,498 | 1,490 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.23 | +1.56% | +1.70% | 39.61 | 40.25 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,925 | +1.88% | -19.59% | 5,816 | 5,925 | 5,922 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.72 | +0.37% | +74.16% | 11.68 | 11.80 | 11.72 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.20 | +1.20% | -3.49% | 57.51 | 58.20 | 58.05 | — |
| USD/CRC | 447.79 | +1.51% | -9.36% | 441.12 | 447.88 | 446.85 | — |
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03 What moved it
Chilean policy remains the dominant force differentiating lithium stocks. The preliminary December 2023 agreement for Codelco to assume control of SQM’s Atacama leases from 2031 fundamentally alters the company’s long-term production and profit profile, even though details of the post-2031 royalty and operating structure remain under negotiation.
Simultaneously, Albemarle’s parallel discussions with Chilean authorities have not yet produced a binding restructuring, leaving investors to assume its current Corfo contract runs intact. Broader EV demand concerns also tempered enthusiasm, with traders watching Chinese monthly sales data for any sign that the blistering growth of recent years is moderating.
04 The Latin American read
The Lithium Triangle stretching across Chile, Argentina and Bolivia holds an extraordinary share of the world’s brine-hosted lithium, making government policy in Santiago, Buenos Aires and La Paz as important to global battery supply as the geology itself. Chile’s push for majority state participation through Codelco and Enami marks the most aggressive effort yet to capture a greater share of the value chain.
Argentina offers a contrasting picture, with provincial governments granting concessions to Arcadium Lithium, Ganfeng, POSCO and Zijin Mining despite chronic currency instability. Bolivia, sitting on the vast Salar de Uyuni, remains a potential rather than actual supplier, with Chinese-backed direct lithium extraction pilot projects yet to prove they can scale.
05 The names to watch
Albemarle’s next quarterly report will be closely parsed for realized lithium prices, volume guidance and any language on the Corfo contract renegotiation that could jolt the stock beyond Friday’s tiny -0.10% move. SQM faces the heaviest scrutiny, with its capital-spending plans for Atacama dependent on the final Codelco joint-venture terms.
Rio Tinto, which absorbed Arcadium Lithium in 2025, is the main listed vehicle for Argentina’s brine sector and will be watched for updates on the Olaroz and Fénix operations, where expansion timelines intersect with Buenos Aires’ evolving export-tax and capital-control regime.
06 The outlook
The lithium equity market is bifurcating. Names with long-dated, stable contracts trade at a premium, while those facing lease renewals or state-partnership negotiations must price in a new era of higher government take. That dynamic, more than short-term spot lithium prices, will continue to sort winners from losers in the Lithium Triangle.
07 What to watch
- Codelco-SQM final terms: Any announcement on the post-2031 royalty split, governance or capex obligations will directly move SQM shares and influence how investors price other Chilean resource assets.
- China EV monthly sales: Strong battery-installation data from CATL and BYD would support the demand thesis for lithium, while any deceleration would reinforce Friday’s cautious tone.
- Albemarle contract talks: Progress or friction in Albemarle’s talks with Chilean authorities will determine whether the stock can sustain its premium valuation relative to SQM.
- Argentina policy shifts: New mining regulations, export-tax adjustments or capital-control easing from Buenos Aires could accelerate project approvals and redirect capital flows within the Lithium Triangle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did SQM fall more than Albemarle?
SQM’s preliminary December 2023 deal to hand Atacama control to Codelco in 2031 clouds its earnings beyond existing leases, while Albemarle’s Corfo contract appears less immediately affected by Chile’s state-participation plan.
What is the LIT ETF?
It is an exchange-traded fund holding shares of lithium miners and battery manufacturers, tracking the Solactive Global Lithium Index. It reflects equity-market valuations, not the physical price of lithium carbonate.
Does Bolivia currently produce much lithium?
No. Despite large resources at the Salar de Uyuni, state control through YLB and stalled foreign partnerships have kept commercial production far behind Chile and Argentina.
What links lithium prices to EV sales?
Lithium compounds are essential ingredients in all major lithium-ion battery chemistries, so faster EV adoption directly increases demand for lithium carbonate and hydroxide.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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