Brazil’s Supreme Court Has Been One Justice Short for 6 Months. Here’s Why
Key Points
— President Lula formally sent the nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias to the Senate on April 1, four months after announcing him as his pick to replace retired Justice Luís Roberto Barroso on the Supreme Court
— An Estadão vote count shows 9 senators in favor, 8 against, and 1 undecided on the CCJ committee — well short of the 14 votes needed. Nine more senators have not declared a position, making them the decisive bloc
— Senate President Davi Alcolumbre — who wanted his ally Rodrigo Pacheco for the seat — controls the timeline and has not yet forwarded the nomination to the CCJ, raising the possibility the vote could be delayed past the October elections
The STF seat has been vacant since October 2025. The president who announced his pick in November still can’t guarantee the votes. And the man who controls the Senate calendar has every reason to wait.
The Lula STF Messias nomination was formally transmitted to the Senate on April 1 — four months and eleven days after Lula announced Jorge Messias, the 46-year-old Advocate General of the Union (AGU), as his choice to fill the vacancy left by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement in October 2025. The delay was not bureaucratic. It was political: Lula held back the paperwork because he didn’t have the votes, and sending a nomination that gets rejected would be a humiliation his presidency cannot afford heading into 2026 elections.
The Vote Count
The CCJ (Constitution and Justice Committee) requires 14 of 27 votes for approval. According to Estadão’s latest tally on April 3, Messias has 9 confirmed votes in favor — up from just 5 in November. Eight senators are confirmed against. One is undecided. Six declined to state a position and three did not respond. Those nine uncommitted senators will determine whether Messias reaches the STF or becomes the first nominee rejected by a Lula government.
The support base includes expected allies from PT and the governing coalition — Augusta Brito (PT-CE), Rogério Carvalho (PT-SE), Soraya Thronicke (Podemos-MS) — but also a notable cross-party pickup: Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), former minister under Bolsonaro and a key power broker linked to the Banco Master affair. The opposition bloc includes Sergio Moro (PL-PR), Hamilton Mourão (Republicanos-RS), Eduardo Girão (Novo-CE), and Rogério Marinho (PL-RN).
The Alcolumbre Factor
The most powerful figure in this process is not Lula or Messias — it is Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). He controls when the nomination reaches the CCJ, and CCJ chair Otto Alencar (PSD-BA) has said publicly he will only schedule the hearing after receiving Alcolumbre’s go-ahead. “The timing is Davi’s timing,” Alencar told reporters.
Alcolumbre wanted Senator Rodrigo Pacheco for the seat — a preference shared by some sitting STF justices. When Lula chose Messias instead, Alcolumbre initially scheduled a surprise hearing for December 10 to force a vote before Lula could whip support. The government responded by withholding the formal nomination. Alcolumbre cancelled the hearing. The standoff lasted four months. Pacheco, now preterido, joined the PSB this week to run for governor of Minas Gerais with Lula’s endorsement — a consolation prize that reportedly eased Alcolumbre’s resistance, though government sources say the Senate president learned of the April 1 filing from the press rather than from the Planalto, which he took as a “discourtesy.”
The Election Clock
Timing is the real battleground. If Alcolumbre delays the hearing past the electoral calendar, the seat remains vacant through the October elections. If Lula loses reelection, the next president fills the vacancy — potentially with a very different judicial philosophy. Government allies in the MDB, led by Senate leader Eduardo Braga, reportedly urged Lula to send the nomination now precisely to shift the political responsibility to the Senate: “take the ball off your lap and put it on theirs.”
Even after CCJ approval, Messias needs 41 of 81 votes in a secret plenary ballot — a higher bar that introduces additional uncertainty. The record for the longest delay between nomination and hearing belongs to André Mendonça, Bolsonaro’s evangelical pick, who waited 141 days — also under Alcolumbre’s control as CCJ chair at the time. Messias is on day 133 since his announcement.
Who Is Jorge Messias
Messias, 46, is a career federal attorney who entered the AGU in 2003 and rose through the ranks. He holds a law degree from the Federal University of Pernambuco and a doctorate from the University of Brasília. He coordinated the government’s legal defense during the Dilma Rousseff impeachment proceedings. If confirmed, he could serve on the STF until age 75 — a tenure of nearly three decades that would shape Brazilian jurisprudence well beyond any single presidency. That is precisely why both sides are fighting so hard — and why Alcolumbre’s calendar is the most consequential variable in Brazilian politics that nobody outside Brasília is watching.
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