Key Facts
- The USO crude-oil fund rose 1.70% to US$162.51 on Thursday 22 October.
- Brent crude traded above US$112 a barrel on Middle East supply fears.
- Latin American oil producers fell anyway: Petrobras lost 0.16% to US$25.62, Ecopetrol 1.33% to US$17.01 and YPF 2.38% to US$49.17.
- China is drawing on its oil stockpiles, which hold about 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 39.5% to WTI touching US$105 in October (US$3.9 million traded, read 8:30 pm ET, 22 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Oil funds rose on Thursday, 22 October 2026, as Middle East supply fears kept a war premium in the market. The USO fund, which tracks US crude futures, closed at US$162.51, up 1.70%.
Latin American producers did not follow. Petrobras lost 0.16% to US$25.62, Colombia’s Ecopetrol fell 1.33% to US$17.01 and Argentina’s YPF slid 2.38% to US$49.17.
The split shows that investors judge each company and country separately, and that falling shares across the region reflected a global sell-off in risk assets.
What matters today. Crude rose, but Latin American oil shares fell, so investors are not simply buying every oil name.
01 The session in one read
Crude-linked funds advanced on Thursday, 22 October 2026, as Middle East supply fears reinforced the war risk premium. The USO fund closed at US$162.51, up 1.70%, and Brent traded above US$112 a barrel.
The gains were not shared across Latin America. Petrobras slipped 0.16% to US$25.62, Ecopetrol fell 1.33% to US$17.01, and YPF lost 2.38% to US$49.17.
At the same time the Nasdaq fell about 2.6%, which weighed on all risk assets.
The market is pricing barrels as scarce because of Middle East supply fears, yet the shares of Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF fell with the broader market. The variable to watch is whether crude keeps rising while the Nasdaq falls, because a sustained gap would point to company and country risk.
02 The board
The USO fund gained 1.70% to US$162.51. A fund price is not the price of a barrel, but it shows buying pressure in US crude futures.
YPF was the weakest producer in our table, down 2.38%. Ecopetrol lost 1.33%, and Petrobras showed the most resilience with a fall of only 0.16%.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Crude oil (USO fund) | US$162.51 | +1.70% |
| Petrobras | US$25.62 | −0.16% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.01 | −1.33% |
| YPF | US$49.17 | −2.38% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-22. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,317.18 | -2.50% | +19.56% | 175,710.05 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| IPSA | 10,678.34 | -0.82% | — | 10,766.85 | 10,722 | 10,633 | — |
| IPC MEX | 69,711.87 | +0.35% | +12.74% | 69,470.99 | 70,008 | 69,383 | 49,372,306 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | +12.65% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,499.50 | -0.28% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.69 | +0.62% | +1.45% | 18.57 | 18.69 | 18.54 | — |
| USD/CLP | 983.47 | -0.57% | +5.64% | 989.13 | 991.87 | 979.07 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,149 | +3.06% | -18.02% | 3,056 | 3,173 | 3,111 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.45 | +0.17% | +3.85% | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,537 | -0.28% | +3.77% | 1,541 | 1,541 | 1,537 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.21 | +3.57% | +2.29% | 38.83 | 40.21 | 40.08 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,803 | +3.78% | -16.54% | 5,592 | 5,803 | 5,735 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.97 | +4.93% | +77.92% | 11.41 | 11.97 | 11.82 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.54 | +1.83% | -4.34% | 59.45 | 61.14 | 59.85 | — |
| USD/CRC | 451.24 | +2.13% | -7.80% | 441.83 | 451.40 | 450.04 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.23% | +2.18% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
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03 What moved it
Supply fears in the Middle East were the central driver and pushed Brent above US$112 a barrel. China, the world’s largest crude importer, is drawing on oil stockpiles that hold about 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels, which adds to the sense of tight supply.
US data added to the dollar’s strength: initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against a forecast of 200,000 (RT economic calendar), which kept expectations of high US rates alive.
04 The Latin American read
Petrobras is mild but telling: Brazil’s state-controlled producer is treated by investors as more exposed to fuel pricing and politics than to the day’s crude move. Brazil also votes on Sunday 25 October.
Ecopetrol fell 1.33% in New York and 1.64% in Bogotá, which suggests concerns beyond oil prices weigh on the state-controlled company. YPF fell despite Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale basin, while the country’s risk premium rose above 700 basis points.
05 The names to watch
USO is the simplest way for foreign investors to follow US crude. Petrobras remains the most liquid Latin American oil share.
YPF and Ecopetrol were the regional laggards on Thursday.
06 The outlook
The near-term path for crude depends on Middle East events and on whether China keeps drawing on stocks instead of buying barrels.
For Latin American equities the test is whether Petrobras, YPF and Ecopetrol can catch up if crude stays high.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, asked what US crude oil (WTI) would touch in October. Traders gave 39.5% to a rise to US$105 and 54.0% to a fall to US$95, with US$3.9 million traded (read at 8:30 pm ET on 22 October).
These prices are bets, not polls. They can move quickly with each new data release.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Middle East supply news: Escalation would support crude but could hurt risk appetite.
- China’s stockpiles: Continued drawdowns would point to tighter supply.
- Brazil’s runoff (Sunday 25 October): The result will shape Petrobras shares on Monday.
- Argentine country risk: Above 700 basis points, it weighs on YPF.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil funds rise on Thursday?
Middle East supply fears kept a war premium in the market, and the USO crude fund gained 1.70% while Brent traded above US$112 a barrel.
Why did Latin American oil shares fall?
Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF fell with the broader market, and country and company risks weighed more than the crude price.
What is the USO fund?
USO is an exchange-traded fund that tracks US crude oil futures. Its price is not the price of a barrel.
What is China doing with its oil stocks?
China is drawing on stockpiles that hold about 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels instead of buying all the crude it needs.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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